Nashville Bits and Pieces

[CenterHill]

38 minutes ago, PaulChinetti said:

Crazy slow, I thought the site was down all weekend it took so long to load on my phone that I eventually just gave up.

Extremely slow.    The UP site is almost unusable now, at least for me.    Tried different devices - laptop, phone, ipad - same result.   Each page takes a long time to load.     

[MLBrumby]

Doing two things here... posting a link of presumed interest and testing a theory I have about the new software. I just deleted my history from this computer. 

So here goes!

I don't know how official these estimates are, but I've seen them used as a source before. They claim to use US Census estimates and the numbers for 2021 look accurate from what has been published about recent estimates and the 2020 projections. That said, this shows Tennessee has passed Massachusetts to become the 15th largest state as of this year, approximately three years ahead of schedule. What's also noteworthy is the estimated growth over the previous year (2.55% if it's not misread/misstated as the growth from 2018). I'd expect that's close to accurate and reflects the blistering growth of the midstate since 2015.  Also of note is how New York, Illinois, and New Jersey are hemorrhaging population.  Ill has fallen behind Pennsylvania now.  North Carolina and Georgia have passed Michigan and will be nipping at the heels of Ohio in a decade. Four of the ten largest states now are in the South. Compared to the Northern/Midwestern area which now has the same, and the relatively stagnant growth of California since 2018.  Don't know the last time CA saw "only" 150,000 new residents over a 3-year period, but the question remains if that's an anomaly or a future trend. 

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states

The edit function is not working for me.  I'll go away now and let you guys work on it. Thanks!

[smeagolsfree]

1 hour ago, MLBrumby said:

The edit function is not working for me.  I'll go away now and let you guys work on it. Thanks!

I do not know if you have noticed that the edit function has moved to the drop down box in the upper right.

Nope it did not work for me either. The edit took me to a strange looking thread. But the board is working a lot faster.

[smeagolsfree]

Still a few bugs, but I am sure it will be worked out. The powers have been notified about this hiccup.

[BnaBreaker]

2 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

Still a few bugs, but I am sure it will be worked out. The powers have been notified about this hiccup.

Thanks for keeping us all posted Ron!  As of 4PM this afternoon it is working significantly quicker for me.  Hope everyone else can say the same.

[MidTenn1]

If you wondered where all the material from all the building excavation is going, I am watching a lot of it going into a deep ravine next to Hwy 70 which is on my way home. I don't know the volume, but according to measurements from Google Earth, it appears to be over 100' deep at one point, I see trucks full of fill also going somewhere up old Charlotte Road.  There is some of that fill in material in a small gorge in Kingston Springs . Some of it was contaminated (from the fairgrounds ) and our city commission made them remove the bad fill. They did and now they are going to build affordable apartments on the land which is wonderful. 

Also, the nearby Vulcan Materials quarry appears to be over 500' deep and just 108' above sea level making it the lowest elevation in Tennessee.

 

[PruneTracy]

11 minutes ago, PHofKS said:

I see trucks full of fill also going somewhere up old Charlotte Road. 

There are quite a few people up on the ridge apparently allowing dumping on their property to try to level it out. Mixed results of course.

[downtownresident]

Buried in the Mayor’s budget presentation was this slide, which is interesting due to listing the population, which it puts at 711,359 for FY 2022: 

Link to the entire presentation: https://www.nashville.gov/Portals/0/SiteContent/Finance/docs/OMB/fy22_budget/budget_presentation.pdf

Edited April 30, 2021 by downtownresident

[MLBrumby]

I've even seen 722,000 right now.  Metro has historically done a poor job of staying abreast of population statistics. AFAIK there's no person or staff tasked with this job, and it's really the job of a statistician, but it also comes down to some basic benchmarking, such as housing starts, address changes from the USPS, and children in schools (and MNPS historically has low enrollment b/c of so many private schools).  If you look at the early part of the last decade, you'll see y-o-y increases of 9-12K residents (around 2012-14) and estimaes reflected that. Then what I call the 'real boom' occurred and for some reason the estimates plateaued.  So they either missed the early estimates by a tremendous amount, or they just lost a handle on the annual increases.  

[samsonh]

4 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

I've even seen 722,000 right now.  Metro has historically done a poor job of staying abreast of population statistics. AFAIK there's no person or staff tasked with this job, and it's really the job of a statistician, but it also comes down to some basic benchmarking, such as housing starts, address changes from the USPS, and children in schools (and MNPS historically has low enrollment b/c of so many private schools).  If you look at the early part of the last decade, you'll see y-o-y increases of 9-12K residents (around 2012-14) and estimaes reflected that. Then what I call the 'real boom' occurred and for some reason the estimates plateaued.  So they either missed the early estimates by a tremendous amount, or they just lost a handle on the annual increases.  

Has metro government ever done anything correctly? Jesus, a plurality of your posts are about how bad metro or one of the coopers are. It gets tiring. 

[UrbanWes03]

Finally hit 700,000+ though! Been waiting on that for a while now. 

Edited May 1, 2021 by UrbanWes03

[Tenn2Tex]

Anyone have a link to the new census numbers for metro Nashville? I’ve been trying to crunch numbers by county to see their change from 2010. Thanks. 

[BnaBreaker]

2 hours ago, Tenn2Tex said:

Anyone have a link to the new census numbers for metro Nashville? I’ve been trying to crunch numbers by county to see their change from 2010. Thanks. 

I could be wrong, but I don't think the county and city information has been released just yet.

[markhollin]

How Nashville corporate magnetism is changing commercial real estate:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2021/05/03/nashville-commercial-real-estate-oracle-jobs-housing-east-bank/7383223002/

Overview of some new residential projects that will be sprouting up with news of Oracle's new Nashville campus at The Tennessean here:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/homes/2021/05/02/real-estate-development-continues-nashvilles-urban-core/7398805002/

[Hey_Hey]

I have always suspected that the estimates from the Census bureau miss half of the residents in two-on-one housing builds (umbilical cords early in the 2010s and tall skinnies once the zoning laws changed). For zoning purposes Metro counts all of these as Single Family Homes, and I suspect that when they report this to the census bureau they don’t realize that those are actually two housing units.  I don’t have the data in front of me, but when I have pulled HUD’s estimates for Nashville it is pretty clear they aren’t including them.
 

I’m not sure how many of these types of houses are being built every year, but I would suspect at least a thousand or so. 
 

It also seems really odd that the latter half of the 2010s is when we saw multi family absolutely explode, but the estimates still plateaued.  These apartments aren’t sitting empty, so the only way to account for plateauing of the population growth is if household size has dropped dramatically as well. That is a possibility, although it would have to be a pretty profound drop to counter the increased number of housing units in Nashville now. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Hey_Hey

[Rockatansky]

On 4/30/2021 at 5:17 PM, downtownresident said:

Buried in the Mayor’s budget presentation was this slide, which is interesting due to listing the population, which it puts at 711,359 for FY 2022: 

 

Link to the entire presentation: https://www.nashville.gov/Portals/0/SiteContent/Finance/docs/OMB/fy22_budget/budget_presentation.pdf

Those values are from State Data Center projections. I assume they'll be updated once the results of the 2020 Census are published. https://tnsdc.utk.edu/estimates-and-projections/

22 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

I could be wrong, but I don't think the county and city information has been released just yet.

This is correct.

2 hours ago, Hey_Hey said:

 These apartments aren’t sitting empty

They could be in use as STRs, which would not add to total population.

2 hours ago, Hey_Hey said:

Census bureau miss half of the residents in two-on-one housing builds

Census estimates are, in part, based on address info from USPS, so the Census should be aware.

Edited May 3, 2021 by Rockatansky

[MLBrumby]

And Exodus continues. HST Pathways moving HQ from California ... https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2021/05/04/hst-pathways-moving-headquarters-to-nashville.html

HST will keep its California office open, and while staff won’t be required to make the move, Hui said he expects a “fairly significant migration of employees” to Nashville. 

Edited May 4, 2021 by MLBrumby

[smeagolsfree]

This is one and there are more to come!!!

[jmtunafish]

Ok the 2020 estimates are out. Remember, these are just estimates, not official Census counts. The official counts won't come out until July, I think. The only estimates right now are for metropolitan and micropolitan areas and their counties.  Copied from city-data.com

metropolitan area...2020 est...1-year change...10-year change
Nashville...1,961,232...27,777...315,032
Memphis...1,348,678...2,332...32,578
Knoxville...878,124...8,986...63,210
Chattanooga...569,931...4,749...41,788
Clarksville...314,364...4,615...40,415
Kingsport-Bristol...308,183...393...-1,361
Johnson City...204,540...560...5,824
Jackson...179,131...476...-563
Morristown...143,982...1,140...7,374
Cleveland...125,906...909...10,118

micropolitan area...2020 est...1-year change...10-year change
Cookeville...115,359...1,293...9,313
Tullahoma-Manchester...106,555...1,144...6,345
Sevierville...99,244...842...9,355
Greeneville...69,571...444...740
Crossville...61,603...771...5,550
Athens...54,208...398...1,942
Shelbyville...50,179...495...5,121
Lawrenceburg...44,432...269...2,563
McMinnville...41,605...336...1,766
Dyersburg...36,693...-429...-1,642
Newport...36,225...208...563
Lewisburg...35,016...509...4,399
Dayton...33,443...237...1,634
Martin...33,334...65...-1,687
Paris...32,056...-253...-274
Union City...30,131...-118...-1,676
Brownsville...17,002...-242...-1,785

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-totals-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

Edited May 4, 2021 by jmtunafish

[Binbin98]

5 minutes ago, jmtunafish said:

Ok the 2020 estimates are out. Remember, these are just estimates, not official Census counts. The official counts won't come out until July, I think. The only estimates right now are for metropolitan and micropolitan areas and their counties.  Copied from city-data.com

metropolitan area...2020 est...1-year change...10-year change
Nashville...1,961,232...27,777...315,032
Memphis...1,348,678...2,332...32,578
Knoxville...878,124...8,986...63,210
Chattanooga...569,931...4,749...41,788
Clarksville...314,364...4,615...40,415
Kingsport-Bristol...308,183...393...-1,361
Johnson City...204,540...560...5,824
Jackson...179,131...476...-563
Morristown...143,982...1,140...7,374
Cleveland...125,906...909...10,118

micropolitan area...2020 est...1-year change...10-year change
Cookeville...115,359...1,293...9,313
Tullahoma-Manchester...106,555...1,144...6,345
Sevierville...99,244...842...9,355
Greeneville...69,571...444...740
Crossville...61,603...771...5,550
Athens...54,208...398...1,942
Shelbyville...50,179...495...5,121
Lawrenceburg...44,432...269...2,563
McMinnville...41,605...336...1,766
Dyersburg...36,693...-429...-1,642
Newport...36,225...208...563
Lewisburg...35,016...509...4,399
Dayton...33,443...237...1,634
Martin...33,334...65...-1,687
Paris...32,056...-253...-274
Union City...30,131...-118...-1,676
Brownsville...17,002...-242...-1,785

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-totals-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

This looks like Nashville metro barely even grew at all. This really doesn’t look right to me at all.

[BnaBreaker]

6 minutes ago, Binbin98 said:

This looks like Nashville metro barely even grew at all. This really doesn’t look right to me at all.

I don't know if I'd call growth of 315K people over ten years 'barely growing,' but I agree that I expected to see a larger number than 1.96 million... perhaps the official numbers will at least get us over that two million hump.

[UTgrad09]

13 minutes ago, Binbin98 said:

This looks like Nashville metro barely even grew at all. This really doesn’t look right to me at all.

4 minutes ago, BnaBreaker said:

I don't know if I'd call growth of 315K people over ten years 'barely growing,' but I agree that I expected to see a larger number than 1.96 million... perhaps the official numbers will at least get us over that two million hump.

As jmtunafish said, these are the estimates. Keep in mind that the 2020 estimate for Tennessee are 6,886,834 and the official count is 6,910,840 (+24,006 for the official count). 

Also keep in mind that the latest Census MSA delineations dropped Hickman County (pop ~26,000) from our metro. It's a dead weight county when it comes to population, growth, and size...but it will almost certainly keep us from hitting 2 million in 2020.  

The Census also has a tendency to "revise" past estimates with the new estimates, which can throw off the growth rates. 

If it's any comfort, the Nashville MSA has likely crossed that mark at this point it time.

[MLBrumby]

 

 

NAME

Estimate 2010

Est 2011

Est 2012

Est 2013

Est 2014

Est 2015

Est 2016

Est 2017

Est 2018

Est 2019

Est 2020

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN		1646183		1674830	1704175	1735823	1769402	1805988	1843004	1876449	1906794	1933455	1961232
Cannon County, TN		13813		13725	13792	13704	13581	13746	13884	14162	14395	14583	14847
Cheatham County, TN		39101		38978	39226	39335	39611	39597	39793	40436	40539	40828	41101
Davidson County, TN		626577		636083	649619	660560	670102	680397	686420	687808	691298	692999	694176
Dickson County, TN		49658		49996	50229	50182	50484	51357	51936	52811	53467	53856	54376
Macon County, TN		22225		22452	22486	22634	22916	23075	23364	23931	24294	24624	24827
Maury County, TN		80986		81601	82147	83722	85498	87547	89719	92393	94577	96795	99590
Robertson County, TN		66312		66775	66809	67423	68063	68709	69439	70342	71159	71693	72275
Rutherford County, TN		262593		269206	274482	281277	289014	298401	307724	316777	324809	332125	339261
Smith County, TN		19150		19211	19185	19123	19104	19316	19542	19743	19946	20115	20285
Sumner County, TN		160639		163713	166026	168839	172380	175467	179474	184016	187854	191497	195561
Trousdale County, TN		7858		7812	7795	7814	8001	8053	9955	10833	11030	11277	11455
Williamson County, TN		183208		188464	193207	199177	205395	211713	219105	226373	232517	238556	245348
Wilson County, TN		114063		116814	119172	122033	125253	128610	132649	136824	140909	144507	148130

 

Sorry for the crude 'alignment' of the columns and slight difficulty in reading the chart above; copied/pasted from the US Census xl spreadsheet.  Hopefully it's not too difficult to read the estimates for MSA counties from 2010 to 2020 (in the columns).  

Now my questions:

1.  Davidson Co:  Does anyone think Davidson County population increased by only 1177 people from '19-20?  COVID lockdowns notwithstanding, Nashville has been identified by more than a handful of publications as a destination city for "digital nomads" and COVID WFH trends.

2. Davidson Co:  Looking at the overall, why are the estimates ALL OVER THE BOARD, from an increase of apx 10k from '10-11;  13+ from '11-12; 11K in '12-13; then 10K ('14); again 10K ('15); 16K ('16); then there's a precipitous drop y-o-y to the end of the decade. Anyone believe these estimates are even close to accurate?  When you compare to the other counties, their trends are much more consistent.  So which department in Metro is responsible for these estimates?  Is there an actuary on staff.  I made a similar point about this in an earlier post. So was the boom a lie? Was it overestimated earlier in the decade? If so, then how did the early estimates get to be so wrong?  From my perspective (and I'd guess many others) Nashville's boom has only seemed to accelerate in recent years. Why are thousands of apartments still u/c in Davidson?

3.  After outpacing Rutherford Co. in total increases for the first half of the decade, are we to believe suddenly Rutherford continued at the trend but Davidson dropped to 1/6 of that estimate by 2020?  If the estimates were lowered to correct for earlier overestimates, then why is there such inconsistency in their methodology? 

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by MLBrumby

[Nash_12South]

I'm not trying to stir the pot or create trouble but....I remember reading that this last census was something of a mass because of COVD and the past administration's attempt to undercount minorities. Could that have any affect on our numbers?

[MLBrumby]

I hadn't heard that, but I also doubt that's true.  The drop started before 2017; but to my point, aren't the estimates conducted by the local governments and then subject to approval by the USCB?  The methodology used (assuming there's one) is at the crux of my curiosity.