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On 4/23/2021 at 4:40 PM, MLBrumby said:

Eric Snyder on Cooper's dishonesty!!!  But dupes will believe him.  No atttempt to explain to the great unwashed. Sorry guys, but Nashville needs some competitive politics. Everything I've seen from the past few mayoral and congressional campaigns has been just carbon copies with varying degrees of dishonesty and in more than a few cases stupidity.  So who was Nashville's last bold mayor... and congressional unit?   I might say Bredesen for the former... can't think of anyone since my time in Nashville for the latter. 

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2021/04/23/from-the-editor-cooper-misleads-again.html

In a series of morning TV appearances on April 16, he had a message: Don’t fret about that 34% tax hike he endorsed, and signed into law as part of Metro’s budget, last year. Consider it gone.

Take your politics to the coffee shop.

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So Nashville added another resident last night... Turner Wallace Chinetti 9 pounds 6 ounces. 20 inches.  Mom and baby are doing great! He’s ready to argue about scooters, height re

I am humbled that NashvilleNowNext did a feature on my photo work here at Urban Planet Nashville. https://nashvillenownext.com/2021/04/02/the-hollingsworth-reel-vol-1-highlighting-the-work-of-nas

North, South, East, and West.  All done today except for South. The East view you get the stadium but not a whole lot past that in the background.

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22 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

Is it just me, or does this new updated version of the forum run significantly slower than the previous version?  I don't suppose there is anything we can really do about it if that is indeed the case, but I suppose I mainly wanted to make sure it isn't an issue with my computer.

Crazy slow, I thought the site was down all weekend it took so long to load on my phone that I eventually just gave up.

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38 minutes ago, PaulChinetti said:

Crazy slow, I thought the site was down all weekend it took so long to load on my phone that I eventually just gave up.

Extremely slow.    The UP site is almost unusable now, at least for me.    Tried different devices - laptop, phone, ipad - same result.   Each page takes a long time to load.     

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1 hour ago, MLBrumby said:

The edit function is not working for me.  I'll go away now and let you guys work on it. Thanks!

I do not know if you have noticed that the edit function has moved to the drop down box in the upper right.

Nope it did not work for me either. The edit took me to a strange looking thread. But the board is working a lot faster.

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11 minutes ago, PHofKS said:

I see trucks full of fill also going somewhere up old Charlotte Road. 

There are quite a few people up on the ridge apparently allowing dumping on their property to try to level it out. Mixed results of course.

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Buried in the Mayor’s budget presentation was this slide, which is interesting due to listing the population, which it puts at 711,359 for FY 2022: 

D55D314E-C928-41BA-A475-12FA621D0C63.thumb.png.31ad5d9de6cfb94230e065b16cf17539.png

Link to the entire presentation: https://www.nashville.gov/Portals/0/SiteContent/Finance/docs/OMB/fy22_budget/budget_presentation.pdf

Edited by downtownresident
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4 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

I've even seen 722,000 right now.  Metro has historically done a poor job of staying abreast of population statistics. AFAIK there's no person or staff tasked with this job, and it's really the job of a statistician, but it also comes down to some basic benchmarking, such as housing starts, address changes from the USPS, and children in schools (and MNPS historically has low enrollment b/c of so many private schools).  If you look at the early part of the last decade, you'll see y-o-y increases of 9-12K residents (around 2012-14) and estimaes reflected that. Then what I call the 'real boom' occurred and for some reason the estimates plateaued.  So they either missed the early estimates by a tremendous amount, or they just lost a handle on the annual increases.  

Has metro government ever done anything correctly? Jesus, a plurality of your posts are about how bad metro or one of the coopers are. It gets tiring. 

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2 hours ago, Tenn2Tex said:

Anyone have a link to the new census numbers for metro Nashville? I’ve been trying to crunch numbers by county to see their change from 2010. Thanks. 

I could be wrong, but I don't think the county and city information has been released just yet.

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How Nashville corporate magnetism is changing commercial real estate:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2021/05/03/nashville-commercial-real-estate-oracle-jobs-housing-east-bank/7383223002/

Overview of some new residential projects that will be sprouting up with news of Oracle's new Nashville campus at The Tennessean here:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/homes/2021/05/02/real-estate-development-continues-nashvilles-urban-core/7398805002/

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On 4/30/2021 at 5:17 PM, downtownresident said:

Buried in the Mayor’s budget presentation was this slide, which is interesting due to listing the population, which it puts at 711,359 for FY 2022: 

 

Link to the entire presentation: https://www.nashville.gov/Portals/0/SiteContent/Finance/docs/OMB/fy22_budget/budget_presentation.pdf

Those values are from State Data Center projections. I assume they'll be updated once the results of the 2020 Census are published. https://tnsdc.utk.edu/estimates-and-projections/

22 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

I could be wrong, but I don't think the county and city information has been released just yet.

This is correct.

2 hours ago, Hey_Hey said:

 These apartments aren’t sitting empty

They could be in use as STRs, which would not add to total population.

2 hours ago, Hey_Hey said:

Census bureau miss half of the residents in two-on-one housing builds

Census estimates are, in part, based on address info from USPS, so the Census should be aware.

Edited by Rockatansky
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Ok the 2020 estimates are out. Remember, these are just estimates, not official Census counts. The official counts won't come out until July, I think. The only estimates right now are for metropolitan and micropolitan areas and their counties.  Copied from city-data.com

metropolitan area...2020 est...1-year change...10-year change
Nashville...1,961,232...27,777...315,032
Memphis...1,348,678...2,332...32,578
Knoxville...878,124...8,986...63,210
Chattanooga...569,931...4,749...41,788
Clarksville...314,364...4,615...40,415
Kingsport-Bristol...308,183...393...-1,361
Johnson City...204,540...560...5,824
Jackson...179,131...476...-563
Morristown...143,982...1,140...7,374
Cleveland...125,906...909...10,118

micropolitan area...2020 est...1-year change...10-year change
Cookeville...115,359...1,293...9,313
Tullahoma-Manchester...106,555...1,144...6,345
Sevierville...99,244...842...9,355
Greeneville...69,571...444...740
Crossville...61,603...771...5,550
Athens...54,208...398...1,942
Shelbyville...50,179...495...5,121
Lawrenceburg...44,432...269...2,563
McMinnville...41,605...336...1,766
Dyersburg...36,693...-429...-1,642
Newport...36,225...208...563
Lewisburg...35,016...509...4,399
Dayton...33,443...237...1,634
Martin...33,334...65...-1,687
Paris...32,056...-253...-274
Union City...30,131...-118...-1,676
Brownsville...17,002...-242...-1,785

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-totals-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

Edited by jmtunafish
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5 minutes ago, jmtunafish said:

Ok the 2020 estimates are out. Remember, these are just estimates, not official Census counts. The official counts won't come out until July, I think. The only estimates right now are for metropolitan and micropolitan areas and their counties.  Copied from city-data.com

metropolitan area...2020 est...1-year change...10-year change
Nashville...1,961,232...27,777...315,032
Memphis...1,348,678...2,332...32,578
Knoxville...878,124...8,986...63,210
Chattanooga...569,931...4,749...41,788
Clarksville...314,364...4,615...40,415
Kingsport-Bristol...308,183...393...-1,361
Johnson City...204,540...560...5,824
Jackson...179,131...476...-563
Morristown...143,982...1,140...7,374
Cleveland...125,906...909...10,118

micropolitan area...2020 est...1-year change...10-year change
Cookeville...115,359...1,293...9,313
Tullahoma-Manchester...106,555...1,144...6,345
Sevierville...99,244...842...9,355
Greeneville...69,571...444...740
Crossville...61,603...771...5,550
Athens...54,208...398...1,942
Shelbyville...50,179...495...5,121
Lawrenceburg...44,432...269...2,563
McMinnville...41,605...336...1,766
Dyersburg...36,693...-429...-1,642
Newport...36,225...208...563
Lewisburg...35,016...509...4,399
Dayton...33,443...237...1,634
Martin...33,334...65...-1,687
Paris...32,056...-253...-274
Union City...30,131...-118...-1,676
Brownsville...17,002...-242...-1,785

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-totals-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

This looks like Nashville metro barely even grew at all. This really doesn’t look right to me at all.

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6 minutes ago, Binbin98 said:

This looks like Nashville metro barely even grew at all. This really doesn’t look right to me at all.

I don't know if I'd call growth of 315K people over ten years 'barely growing,' but I agree that I expected to see a larger number than 1.96 million... perhaps the official numbers will at least get us over that two million hump.

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13 minutes ago, Binbin98 said:

This looks like Nashville metro barely even grew at all. This really doesn’t look right to me at all.

4 minutes ago, BnaBreaker said:

I don't know if I'd call growth of 315K people over ten years 'barely growing,' but I agree that I expected to see a larger number than 1.96 million... perhaps the official numbers will at least get us over that two million hump.

As jmtunafish said, these are the estimates. Keep in mind that the 2020 estimate for Tennessee are 6,886,834 and the official count is 6,910,840 (+24,006 for the official count). 

Also keep in mind that the latest Census MSA delineations dropped Hickman County (pop ~26,000) from our metro. It's a dead weight county when it comes to population, growth, and size...but it will almost certainly keep us from hitting 2 million in 2020.  

The Census also has a tendency to "revise" past estimates with the new estimates, which can throw off the growth rates. 

If it's any comfort, the Nashville MSA has likely crossed that mark at this point it time.

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NAME Estimate 2010 Est 2011 Est 2012 Est 2013 Est 2014 Est 2015 Est 2016 Est 2017 Est 2018 Est 2019 Est 2020
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN   1646183   1674830 1704175 1735823 1769402 1805988 1843004 1876449 1906794 1933455 1961232
Cannon County, TN   13813   13725 13792 13704 13581 13746 13884 14162 14395 14583 14847
Cheatham County, TN   39101   38978 39226 39335 39611 39597 39793 40436 40539 40828 41101
Davidson County, TN   626577   636083 649619 660560 670102 680397 686420 687808 691298 692999 694176
Dickson County, TN   49658   49996 50229 50182 50484 51357 51936 52811 53467 53856 54376
Macon County, TN   22225   22452 22486 22634 22916 23075 23364 23931 24294 24624 24827
Maury County, TN   80986   81601 82147 83722 85498 87547 89719 92393 94577 96795 99590
Robertson County, TN   66312   66775 66809 67423 68063 68709 69439 70342 71159 71693 72275
Rutherford County, TN   262593   269206 274482 281277 289014 298401 307724 316777 324809 332125 339261
Smith County, TN   19150   19211 19185 19123 19104 19316 19542 19743 19946 20115 20285
Sumner County, TN   160639   163713 166026 168839 172380 175467 179474 184016 187854 191497 195561
Trousdale County, TN   7858   7812 7795 7814 8001 8053 9955 10833 11030 11277 11455
Williamson County, TN   183208   188464 193207 199177 205395 211713 219105 226373 232517 238556 245348
Wilson County, TN   114063   116814 119172 122033 125253 128610 132649 136824 140909 144507 148130


 

Sorry for the crude 'alignment' of the columns and slight difficulty in reading the chart above; copied/pasted from the US Census xl spreadsheet.  Hopefully it's not too difficult to read the estimates for MSA counties from 2010 to 2020 (in the columns).  

Now my questions:

1.  Davidson Co:  Does anyone think Davidson County population increased by only 1177 people from '19-20?  COVID lockdowns notwithstanding, Nashville has been identified by more than a handful of publications as a destination city for "digital nomads" and COVID WFH trends.

2. Davidson Co:  Looking at the overall, why are the estimates ALL OVER THE BOARD, from an increase of apx 10k from '10-11;  13+ from '11-12; 11K in '12-13; then 10K ('14); again 10K ('15); 16K ('16); then there's a precipitous drop y-o-y to the end of the decade. Anyone believe these estimates are even close to accurate?  When you compare to the other counties, their trends are much more consistent.  So which department in Metro is responsible for these estimates?  Is there an actuary on staff.  I made a similar point about this in an earlier post. So was the boom a lie? Was it overestimated earlier in the decade? If so, then how did the early estimates get to be so wrong?  From my perspective (and I'd guess many others) Nashville's boom has only seemed to accelerate in recent years. Why are thousands of apartments still u/c in Davidson?

3.  After outpacing Rutherford Co. in total increases for the first half of the decade, are we to believe suddenly Rutherford continued at the trend but Davidson dropped to 1/6 of that estimate by 2020?  If the estimates were lowered to correct for earlier overestimates, then why is there such inconsistency in their methodology? 

 

Edited by MLBrumby
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