Nashville Bits and Pieces

[samsonh]

18 minutes ago, MLBrumby said:

I hadn't heard that, but I also doubt that's true.  The drop started before 2017; but to my point, aren't the estimates conducted by the local governments and then subject to approval by the USCB?  The methodology used (assuming there's one) is at the crux of my curiosity. 

Ehh, this was pretty much everywhere when the new numbers recently came out. Harmed Texas, Florida, and Arizona. 

 

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/politics/os-ne-census-apportionment-congress-20210426-im26ddkybjdk5maey3dqzgu3wi-story.html

 

 

[smeagolsfree]

Lets just not speculate, till the real numbers come out to relive ourselves of undue heartburn in the meantime. It will  be what it will be.

[BnaBreaker]

3 hours ago, Nash_12South said:

I'm not trying to stir the pot or create trouble but....I remember reading that this last census was something of a mass because of COVD and the past administration's attempt to undercount minorities. Could that have any affect on our numbers?

I don't think the minority numbers were affected.  They wanted to do it by way of getting a citizenship question added to the census, but I believe they were denied by the courts.

[MLBrumby]

13 minutes ago, BnaBreaker said:

I don't think the minority numbers were affected.  They wanted to do it by way of getting a citizenship question added to the census, but I believe they were denied by the courts.

Agreed! 

I've been aware of the battle over the citizenship question in this census.  I think it's interesting how some people conflate the two (immigrants and minorities). As a minority myself, I do not want non-citizens to be getting representation that would otherwise go to a state that's grown with legal immigration. I'm all for legal immigration and do think green-card and citizenship applications should be counted, but not (yet) included in the official count.  

Having said the above, I think there's probably some impact from the citizenship question on this census that might have skewed previous ones. So I won't disagree with @Nash_12Southpoint above. Thanks for the feedback. 

 

[Nashvillain]

2 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Agreed! 

I've been aware of the battle over the citizenship question in this census.  I think it's interesting how some people conflate the two (immigrants and minorities). As a minority myself, I do not want non-citizens to be getting representation that would otherwise go to a state that's grown with legal immigration. I'm all for legal immigration and do think green-card and citizenship applications should be counted, but not (yet) included in the official count.  

Having said the above, I think there's probably some impact from the citizenship question on this census that might have skewed previous ones. So I won't disagree with @Nash_12Southpoint above. Thanks for the feedback. 

 

I'm just trying to understand, how could citizenship questions on the current census skew previous censuses? 

[MLBrumby]

Well, now that's a question for others who have alleged (not saying they're wrong) that the mere asking of the question is intimidating.  Maybe they've got the answer to your question.  

[Nashvillain]

47 minutes ago, MLBrumby said:

Well, now that's a question for others who have alleged (not saying they're wrong) that the mere asking of the question is intimidating.  Maybe they've got the answer to your question.  

Um, OK. I don't think it's a question for anyone else considering you're the one who said that asking a certain question on the current census "skewed" results on prior censuses. To me that seems like a logical fallacy or space time continuum bending impossibility, but I'm willing and able to be wrong. But I see that we're playing games here based on what content isn't allowed on this forum. But it sucks that you can obscure political speech with purposefully vague language then try to deflect when asked directly to clarify.

How bout those Nashville Bits & Pieces? Someone is building some tall skinnies on John Mallete Dr. and Manchester Ave. in Bordeaux. 

[jmtunafish]

On 5/4/2021 at 6:01 PM, Binbin98 said:

This looks like Nashville metro barely even grew at all. This really doesn’t look right to me at all.

Well, if these estimates are true, this means that Nashville grew at nearly twice the rate (19.3%) as Miami-Ft Lauderdale (10.9%).  Seems pretty fast to me.

[jmtunafish]

On 5/5/2021 at 11:10 AM, MLBrumby said:

NAME

Estimate 2010

Est 2011

Est 2012

Est 2013

Est 2014

Est 2015

Est 2016

Est 2017

Est 2018

Est 2019

Est 2020

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN		1646183		1674830	1704175	1735823	1769402	1805988	1843004	1876449	1906794	1933455	1961232
Cannon County, TN		13813		13725	13792	13704	13581	13746	13884	14162	14395	14583	14847
Cheatham County, TN		39101		38978	39226	39335	39611	39597	39793	40436	40539	40828	41101
Davidson County, TN		626577		636083	649619	660560	670102	680397	686420	687808	691298	692999	694176
Dickson County, TN		49658		49996	50229	50182	50484	51357	51936	52811	53467	53856	54376
Macon County, TN		22225		22452	22486	22634	22916	23075	23364	23931	24294	24624	24827
Maury County, TN		80986		81601	82147	83722	85498	87547	89719	92393	94577	96795	99590
Robertson County, TN		66312		66775	66809	67423	68063	68709	69439	70342	71159	71693	72275
Rutherford County, TN		262593		269206	274482	281277	289014	298401	307724	316777	324809	332125	339261
Smith County, TN		19150		19211	19185	19123	19104	19316	19542	19743	19946	20115	20285
Sumner County, TN		160639		163713	166026	168839	172380	175467	179474	184016	187854	191497	195561
Trousdale County, TN		7858		7812	7795	7814	8001	8053	9955	10833	11030	11277	11455
Williamson County, TN		183208		188464	193207	199177	205395	211713	219105	226373	232517	238556	245348
Wilson County, TN		114063		116814	119172	122033	125253	128610	132649	136824	140909	144507	148130

Thanks for posting this.  For those who still aren't impressed with Middle Tennessee's growth, let's put it another way:  the Nashville MSA essentially added the population of Rutherford County--the 5th largest county in the state--in the last 10 years.  

[Flatrock]

2 hours ago, jmtunafish said:

For those who still aren't impressed with Middle Tennessee's growth

True. I'm not sure, but I think much of the disappointment was around (specifically) Davidson County's lack of a more significant increase - not the MSA. At least, that's the case for me. And some shock, given the massive number of new builds over the past decade - especially apartments and townhomes. Dunno.

[Nash_12South]

Pure speculation on my part but, I think a there are a lot of single folk buying in Nashville, while families tend to go the the outlying counties for better schools and bigger houses. I also think a good bit of new housing is going the STR path. 

[jmtunafish]

1 hour ago, Nash_12South said:

Pure speculation on my part but, I think a there are a lot of single folk buying in Nashville, while families tend to go the the outlying counties for better schools and bigger houses. I also think a good bit of new housing is going the STR path. 

Yes.  Let's not forget that back in 2018 MNPS was shocked when its enrollment dropped by 500 when they were expecting an increase of about 1500.  Families with kids being replaced by childless couples and singles was one of the big reasons they cited.

https://patch.com/tennessee/nashville/where-did-they-go-mnps-enrollment-crashes-budget-imperiled

[Flatrock]

45 minutes ago, jmtunafish said:

Let's not forget that back in 2018 MNPS was shocked when its enrollment dropped by 500 when they were expecting an increase of about 1500. 

Yes, I'd forgotten that. And until MNPS can find a way to improve, I reckon that particular trend will continue. It makes me sad.

[dragonfly]

On 5/5/2021 at 11:37 AM, Nash_12South said:

I'm not trying to stir the pot or create trouble but....I remember reading that this last census was something of a mass because of COVD and the past administration's attempt to undercount minorities. Could that have any affect on our numbers?

Please I would like to see documented evidence of the last administration's "attempt to undercount minorities." How did that "attempt" play out. What would be the rationale? Or the supposed benefit? In case you're interested, here is how your state and my state and every other state with R majorities possibly were intentionally undercounted this time. It's interesting how the D states all beat their projections with the census figures and the R state failed to meet the projections. Really interesting. All of the projections were off as if they were all about politics. Here you go read on:  https://townhall.com/columnists/stephenmoore/2021/05/04/why-did-biden-census-bureau-add-25-million-more-residents-to-bluestate-population-count-n2588890?fbclid=IwAR2c5wDgPJnxSTHhp7Zz1g808U2EhTucmG2wLbH-Obb6mP7CcDancERZDK4 

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by dragonfly

[samsonh]

1 hour ago, dragonfly said:

Please I would like to see documented evidence of the last administration's "attempt to undercount minorities." How did that "attempt" play out. What would be the rationale? Or the supposed benefit? In case you're interested, here is how your state and my state and every other state with R majorities possibly were intentionally undercounted this time. It's interesting how the D states all beat their projections with the census figures and the R state failed to meet the projections. Really interesting. All of the projections were off as if they were all about politics. Here you go read on:  https://townhall.com/columnists/stephenmoore/2021/05/04/why-did-biden-census-bureau-add-25-million-more-residents-to-bluestate-population-count-n2588890?fbclid=IwAR2c5wDgPJnxSTHhp7Zz1g808U2EhTucmG2wLbH-Obb6mP7CcDancERZDK4 

 

This has been covered in previous posts and the rationale by a fellow republican above. Not worth even responding to an oped by Stephen Moore.

[titanhog]

1 hour ago, samsonh said:

This has been covered in previous posts and the rationale by a fellow republican above. Not worth even responding to an oped by Stephen Moore.

That's the same thing EVERY liberal says about EVERYTHING any conservative has to say.  Same way that EVERYthing a liberal says, a conservative will say it’s not worth responding to ANYTHING from “so and so” from any liberal source. No wonder everything today is “fake” news.

[samsonh]

4 minutes ago, titanhog said:

That's the same thing EVERY liberal says about EVERYTHING any conservative has to say.  Same way that EVERYthing a liberal says, a conservative will say it’s not worth responding to ANYTHING from “so and so” from any liberal source. No wonder everything today is “fake” news.

Let me be clearer, it’s not worth responding to an oped that is conspiracy theories and no evidence. Moore is a smart guy, with some good thoughts, and some non traditional thoughts.
 

Factual debate is always great. 

[Nashvillain]

5 hours ago, dragonfly said:

Please I would like to see documented evidence of the last administration's "attempt to undercount minorities." How did that "attempt" play out. What would be the rationale? Or the supposed benefit? In case you're interested, here is how your state and my state and every other state with R majorities possibly were intentionally undercounted this time. It's interesting how the D states all beat their projections with the census figures and the R state failed to meet the projections. Really interesting. All of the projections were off as if they were all about politics. Here you go read on:  https://townhall.com/columnists/stephenmoore/2021/05/04/why-did-biden-census-bureau-add-25-million-more-residents-to-bluestate-population-count-n2588890?fbclid=IwAR2c5wDgPJnxSTHhp7Zz1g808U2EhTucmG2wLbH-Obb6mP7CcDancERZDK4 

 

Consider the source: 

"Townhall.com is the #1 conservative website. Townhall.com pulls together political commentary and analysis from over 100 leading columnists and opinion leaders, research from 100 partner organizations, conservative talk-radio and a community of millions of grassroots conservatives.

Townhall.com is designed to amplify those conservative voices in America’s political debates."

That is copy and pasted directly from the about page on the Townhall website that you linked to. Media literacy is increasingly difficult in this partisan age, but just trying goes a long way

 

[LA_TN]

Timeout everyone! This is no longer Nashville Bits and Pieces

Thanks!

[AsianintheNations]

Even without considering possible political influences and obviously the effect of COVID limitations (which I do not want to debate), it would seem to be very difficult to accurately estimate or count the population in a city that is changing as rapidly as Nashville. As y'all can tell, I live in the Nations. I'll stick to factual observations here: the house next door to mine was demolished a few months ago; my own house is on a lot that was split four years ago. In April 2020, four people lived in that house next door. By the time the census surveys arrived, that house was gone. My census survey arrived with the old (not split) address, presumably from out-of-date lot records. I responded immediately with the correct address, but a person still came to my door saying I hadn't responded. I told them the deal and that they needed to fix the addresses to reflect that there were now two houses here - they tried their best to submit an address correction, but I have no idea if my household was counted or not. Since most of the other lots were split AFTER mine, with Google maps still showing the old structures, I wouldn't be surprised if they also each got one mailer per two houses or worse (one church was replaced by 4 houses). I asked the census representative how they would handle the case of the now demolished house next door, with valid residents on April 2020, and they said hopefully they would be counted at their new address or something like that (though technically, I think they would need to have received the mailer at the new address, but respond with the address they were at in April 2020).

Meanwhile, in the last year, five babies have been born on my block of ~10 houses alone, of which I believe only one would be counted in the census. A lot of grandparents have functionally moved in as well. Somewhere above, there was allusion to larger households being replaced by childless couples, but the missing disclaimer there is "of reproductive age." Next year, there will likely be two more fertile couples in the new tall skinny houses next door, who likely will be moving in from out of town. And another house is converting from an Airbnb to a long-term rental.

Back-of-the-envelope, I believe there will be 41 residents on my block at the end of this year (by which I mean houses facing my street from one intersection to the next). I wouldn't be surprised if the census counted 16 in the worst-case scenario (using addresses that are 4 years out of date and missing the folks in the demolished house) and most likely somewhere in the 20s. The correct number for April 2020 should be about 34. Spread this effect across all of the rapidly changing neighborhoods, plus all the college students who were forced off-campus and therefore would be counted in their parents' homes, and boy will the numbers be misleading.

I took a look at the spreadsheet breakdown of the 2020 estimates, and I do not think excess deaths from COVID (about 400 more than usual), while obviously tragic, actually played a large role in the disappointing growth numbers for Davidson County. It was mostly driven by lower international migration, and ongoing net negative domestic migration (many probably to nearby suburbs). Specifically +1079 for international migration (compared to 3000/yr for most of the decade) and -3946 for net domestic (steadily dropping since +5986 in 2012).

Edited May 9, 2021 by AsianintheNations

[titanhog]

Just some thoughts on this Monday as I look over the Fox 17 live cam of downtown.

1. As far as some of the newer construction along 2nd Avenue, at least the developers attempted to make the building fit in with the look of the riverfront.  This building does not detract from the view of downtown.  Painting it white is going to be one of those “hold your breath” moments where it’s going to look surprisingly nice…or it’s going to be as big of a disaster as the AT&T switch building and garage next to it.

2. AT&T switch building is such a horrible “pox mark” on the view of downtown.  Let’s hope AT&T comes up with something more appropriate for the updated exterior after the bombing…OR…decides to sell the building and move…thus allowing a tear-down and developer rebuild of something appropriate.

3. This garage is almost as much of an eyesore as the AT&T building…just smaller.  Would love to see this and AT&T up their game somehow.

4. What a great little area of old buildings.  Would love it if they would build a Victorian-era style facade over the parking garage that’s in between those beautiful buildings.

5.  Of course, would be wonderful if this parking lot was turned into more Victorian-era look-alike buildings…but may be out of the question.  At the least, would be nice if they could turn it into underground parking with a park on top…similar to Walk of Fame Park (or whatever it’s called) in front of the CMHofF.

Edited May 10, 2021 by titanhog

[henburg]

I've always been surprised that the empty lot (#5) hasn't heard any potential development action. What a great location that would be sitting right between Second Ave, the Cumberland, and Public Square Park. 

[titanhog]

43 minutes ago, henburg said:

I've always been surprised that the empty lot (#5) hasn't heard any potential development action. What a great location that would be sitting right between Second Ave, the Cumberland, and Public Square Park. 

I wonder if it’s because of historical limitations that it wouldn’t be cost effective to build what needs to be built there (to the owner of the lot)?

[smeagolsfree]

9 minutes ago, titanhog said:

I wonder if it’s because of historical limitations that it wouldn’t be cost effective to build what needs to be built there (to the owner of the lot)?

I think the bigger issue is who owns the property and that is the Carell family. If the price is not right they are not  going to sell and they will not develop on their own.

[Luvemtall]

26 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

I think the bigger issue is who owns the property and that is the Carell family. If the price is not right they are not  going to sell and they will not develop on their own.

So, if that’s the case then it would probably have to be a huge developer with deep pockets. And the building itself would need to be something that would be a good return on investment. So a tall boy office building leased to a major corporate player?