Nashville Bits and Pieces

[Mr_Bond]

2 hours ago, bigeasy said:

At what point do the housing prices slow down here? It has become ridiculous over the past year.  According to Zillow mine has also gone up 15% in 6 months, and then 26% in about 15 months. The rates we see now have to be pricing tons of people out of buying .

 

1 hour ago, Luvemtall said:

The rates you see now are still below other major cities in the country. These are bargains compared to others. Nashville is no longer a sleepy ole southern town, it’s a big boy ( girl) now! 

I think Luvemtall has a good point.  The downtown condo market is appealing to out-of-town buyers who would not consider living in any of the outlying counties.  Downtown has reached a new level of self-sufficiency and synergy.  If a wealthy individual wants to live in Music City occasionally, they will only consider a lock-and-leave residence downtown and not a typical suburban residence.

[smeagolsfree]

Lets move all discussion from now on about Storyville to the thread named Storyville Gardens. I just renamed the new Opryland thread to that name. Looks like it will not be going away anytime soon.

[KJHburg]

Where the Nashville hotel market stands as one of the top 25 markets.  Hint a lot better than most of its competitors.

""Decrease in revenue in U.S. hotel revenue per available room from May 2019 to May 2021, according to a new report from Washington, D.C.-based industry group American Hotel & Lodging Association. The study shows 21 of the top 25 U.S. hotel markets remain in a depression or recession, despite an uptick in leisure travel. Business travel is not expected to return to 2019 levels until 2023 or 2024. ""

[nashvylle]

If Nashville politicians and Nashvillians don't embrace new supply as the best way to decrease housing costs, these new residents will just go after your lot instead.

https://twitter.com/michael_hendrix/status/1412771917560532996?s=20

Edited July 8, 2021 by nashvylle

[titanhog]

6 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Where the Nashville hotel market stands as one of the top 25 markets.  Hint a lot better than most of its competitors.

""Decrease in revenue in U.S. hotel revenue per available room from May 2019 to May 2021, according to a new report from Washington, D.C.-based industry group American Hotel & Lodging Association. The study shows 21 of the top 25 U.S. hotel markets remain in a depression or recession, despite an uptick in leisure travel. Business travel is not expected to return to 2019 levels until 2023 or 2024. ""

If Florida can get lucky enough to not have a huge Covid outbreak, they’re going to pull in a lot of money the rest of this year.  Pent up demand for the beach.

[smeagolsfree]

Nasty hobbits can have their filthy beaches.

[jmtunafish]

3 hours ago, titanhog said:

If Florida can get lucky enough to not have a huge Covid outbreak, they’re going to pull in a lot of money the rest of this year.  Pent up demand for the beach.

Must be for the beach because Orlando is down 30 percent.

My takeaway from this is that even though Nashville's RevPAR is down 37 percent, it's still one of the more profitable cities on the list at $77 per room.  

[PaulChinetti]

We just had our biggest month for Airbnb so the people are here…

Maybe hotels are still hurting from lack of conventions, tourists can only make up so many stays. 

[downtownresident]

10 minutes ago, PaulChinetti said:

We just had our biggest month for Airbnb so the people are here…

Maybe hotels are still hurting from lack of conventions, tourists can only make up so many stays. 

This is the biggest drag on our tourism recovery at the moment. I've noticed that it's been busier through the week than previously, and saw conventioners today on my way home. It's nothing compared to how slammed the weekends are. Weekends are almost unbelievably busy. 

Looking at the MCC Calendar of events, we have some decent sized conventions coming into town over the next few months, hopefully that helps the hotels continue recovering. 

[bigeasy]

15 hours ago, jmtunafish said:

Must be for the beach because Orlando is down 30 percent.

My takeaway from this is that even though Nashville's RevPAR is down 37 percent, it's still one of the more profitable cities on the list at $77 per room.  

Orlando is probably down due to capacity being lower at the Disney parks. I think they were just at 35% until beginning of May were it was increased to an undisclosed amount. 

[PruneTracy]

1 hour ago, bigeasy said:

Orlando is probably down due to capacity being lower at the Disney parks. I think they were just at 35% until beginning of May were it was increased to an undisclosed amount. 

Orlando also sees very heavy convention traffic.

[KJHburg]

Good news is that the office market is stabilizing in  Nashville and many other places.  How we stacked up with 3 of our competitors:  Charlotte, Atlanta, Nashville, Raleigh Durham.  Hint Atlanta is by far the worst market right now and Raleigh Durham is the best market in this group.  All stats from JLL 2nd Quarter 2021 reports. 

Net Absorption in total Numbers (negative means office market shrunk) year to date to July 1 2021   Bold means best in Class. 

CLT   +78,xxx sq ft    ATL -3.138M sq ft   Nash  +15,xxx sq ft   RDU +151,xxx sq ft

Overall vacancy rate

CLT 16.1%   ATL 22.6%  Nash 17.99% RDU 14.7%

Average sq ft rate 

CLT $32,58  ATL $30,78 Nash $33,01 RDU $29.25 

Total Market Size in Millions of Square Feet

CLT 57 M  ATL 153.4 M  Nash 43.7 M RDU 48.8 M    (I will call ATL the winner since it is the biggest office market) 

Percentage of office space given size the market absorbed (negative means office market shrunk)

CLT  +.1%  ATL  -2.0%  Nash +.1 %  RDU +.3%   

so Raleigh Durham is the best performing market this year so far of our competitors.    Charlotte and Nashville doing about the same.  Atlanta well still has big problems. 

[MLBrumby]

Interesting. Is that a reflection of WFH?  I'm always interested not so much in the numbers themselves, but what's driving them. 

And wow! Atlanta is a completely different beast altogether. Wouldn't have guessed it's that much bigger than Charlotte. Being a native, I find it easy to forget how it dominates the region, and there are millions of s.f. under construction. Wouldn't want to be an investor in that office market right now.  I'd like to see numbers from the Florida cities to see how skewed my perception of their markets are.

[smeagolsfree]

We got a whole lot coming on line, but my guess it will be filling up as it is built with support businesses moving here because of Oracle & Amazon and the continued Exodus from Cali.

[KJHburg]

3 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Good news is that the office market is stabilizing in  Nashville and many other places.  How we stacked up with 3 of our competitors:  Charlotte, Atlanta, Nashville, Raleigh Durham.  Hint Atlanta is by far the worst market right now and Raleigh Durham is the best market in this group.  All stats from JLL 2nd Quarter 2021 reports. 

Net Absorption in total Numbers (negative means office market shrunk) year to date to July 1 2021   Bold means best in Class. 

CLT   +78,xxx sq ft    ATL -3.138M sq ft   Nash  +15,xxx sq ft   RDU +151,xxx sq ft

Overall vacancy rate

CLT 16.1%   ATL 22.6%  Nash 17.99% RDU 14.7%

Average sq ft rate 

CLT $32,58  ATL $30,78 Nash $33,01 RDU $29.25 

Total Market Size in Millions of Square Feet

CLT 57 M  ATL 153.4 M  Nash 43.7 M RDU 48.8 M    (I will call ATL the winner since it is the biggest office market) 

Percentage of office space given size the market absorbed (negative means office market shrunk)

CLT  +.1%  ATL  -2.0%  Nash +.1 %  RDU +.3%   

so Raleigh Durham is the best performing market this year so far of our competitors.    Charlotte and Nashville doing about the same.  Atlanta well still has big problems. 

Same stats same time period for Austin and Tampa St Pete.   Florida metros are not big office markets as Charlotte is bigger than Miami Dade for example.

But since Austin and Tampa St Pete both compete with Nashville and Raleigh Durham to some extent. Here are their numbers.

Net absorption raw numbers (negative means shrinking office space market)

AUS -702,000 sq ft   Tampa -93K

Vacancy rates 

AUS 16.9%  Tampa 18%

Avg rate per square foot

AUS $49,10  Tampa $29.66

Total market size  in millions of square feet

AUS 60 M   Tampa 38.5

% of net absorption 

-1.2% in Austin   Tampas was -.2%

So Charlotte and Nashville much better shape than Austin and Raleigh Durham is still better than them all.    Notice the high cost of space in Austin vs Raleigh Durham or Nashville or Charlotte.   Austin is reflection of being tech heavy and many firms have given up or shrunk their office space.  

[PaulChinetti]

ATL lost 3.1 million square feet?

What does that mean exactly? Cancelled leases, businesses closing/leaving?

[KJHburg]

40 minutes ago, PaulChinetti said:

ATL lost 3.1 million square feet?

What does that mean exactly? Cancelled leases, businesses closing/leaving?

It means office space users left 3.1 M sq ft of office space.  Truist Bank vacated huge blocks as well as AT&T they have shrunk their footprint of office space there.  Tech companies some of them shrunk their office space as they sent more people home to work.  It remains to be seen what will happen there over the next few months but Atlanta has had a history of overbuilding in good times and thus creating higher vacancies. 

Edited July 11, 2021 by KJHburg

[bigeasy]

On 7/10/2021 at 3:41 PM, KJHburg said:

Total Market Size in Millions of Square Feet

CLT 57 M  ATL 153.4 M  Nash 43.7 M RDU 48.8 M    (I will call ATL the winner since it is the biggest office market) 

Raleigh Durham has more office space than us? I thought metro Nashville was like twice the size.

[smeagolsfree]

Humbling, as many on here always think way too much of Nashville.  We have come a long way, be we have a loooong way to go. Our office market is just now catching up to other peer cities but they continue to grow as well.

Nashville’s population growth is eclipsed by every city in that group except maybe Atlanta and I have no idea what their growth rate has been, but they are a much larger city. We need a consistent 2.3% population annual growth rate and we have not had that for the last 10 years. Much of the population growth has been outside Davidson. 

RDU has always been a tech hub and we are just now starting to grow in that market, so that had a huge amount of office space dedicated to that and more on the way. RDU’s office space is spread out too and not concentrated overwhelming in one city or area. They do have commuter rail there too if memory serves.

If Nashville does not get a viable mass transit system very soon or one on the way, our growth could stall, just like your car will be in traffic. Austin, Atlanta, and Charlotte all have rail….while little ole Nashville is relying on a crappy bus system….and yes I will harp on this in every thread until it gets back to Cooper and Lee. Sounds like a cheap law firm.

[markhollin]

58 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

If Nashville does not get a viable mass transit system very soon or one on the way, our growth could stall, just like your car will be in traffic. Austin, Atlanta, and Charlotte all have rail….while little ole Nashville is relying on a crappy bus system….and yes I will harp on this in every thread until it gets back to Cooper and Lee. Sounds like a cheap law firm.

Have you actually reached out to Mayor Cooper and Gov. Lee? Because griping about it in this forum probably won't amount to much.  Just sayin'.  

[MontanaGuy]

On 7/10/2021 at 6:54 PM, KJHburg said:

Florida metros are not big office markets as Charlotte is bigger than Miami Dade for example.

That is definitely not true!  Miami is huge with a metro population of over 6 million people which is over twice as big as metro Charlotte!  Miami and Atlanta are the two biggest metro areas in the South (excluding Texas).

 

[titanhog]

53 minutes ago, MontanaGuy said:

That is definitely not true!  Miami is huge with a metro population of over 6 million people which is over twice as big as metro Charlotte!  Miami and Atlanta are the two biggest metro areas in the South (excluding Texas).

 

I think he meant the office market is bigger…not the population.

[KJHburg]

Yes Miami to Ft Lauderdale to West Palm Beach 3 mega counties is bigger than Charlotte metro area.  But the Charlotte office market is larger the Miami Dade office market.  Miami is dominated by high rise residential towers not office towers. 

3 hours ago, bigeasy said:

Raleigh Durham has more office space than us? I thought metro Nashville was like twice the size.

Raleigh Durham together as one big metro area is larger than Nashville in population and office space market.  Census Bureau currently breaks the metro into 2 when in the past it was one. 

But regardless Nashville office market is growing just like the metro population.  

Raleigh is doing BRT Bus Rapid Transit  under construction now and commuter rail is discussed from Raleigh to Cary to RTP to downtown Durham. 

Edited July 12, 2021 by KJHburg

[MLBrumby]

Not exactly a full picture of the metro areas in this graph (downtown only), but it shows the vast differences in the allocation of office space to the rest of the commercial real estate. This shows the relative dominance of office in certain markets. Miami is not included in this graph, but I'd guess it would be toward the low end, as it's dominated by hotels, commercial and residential space.  I'd imagine Atlanta is somewhere in the middle of the pack (at around 40%) as so much office exists in Midtown-Bhead/GA400/Perimieter/Smyrna etc.  This does remind me that Nashville went for nearly 30 years when any new office of any significant size was built in the Cool Springs (Franklin) area.  As Smeags said above, the office downtown (how will they define the East Bank?) is about to register a huge bump in capacity (IIRC 3 million s.f. downtown and 1.5 million s.f. in midtown and .750 million in Williamson). 

Courtesy of NY Times via Bizjournals.com

http://media.bizj.us/view/img/12053816/downtown-business-districts-2-1*750xx.jpg

Edited July 12, 2021 by MLBrumby

[Licec]

2 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Not exactly a full picture of the metro areas in this graph (downtown only), but it shows the vast differences in the allocation of office space to the rest of the commercial real estate. This shows the relative dominance of office in certain markets. Miami is not included in this graph, but I'd guess it would be toward the low end, as it's dominated by hotels, commercial and residential space.  I'd imagine Atlanta is somewhere in the middle of the pack (at around 40%) as so much office exists in Midtown-Bhead/GA400/Perimieter/Smyrna etc.  This does remind me that Nashville went for nearly 30 years when any new office of any significant size was built in the Cool Springs (Franklin) area.  As Smeags said above, the office downtown (how will they define the East Bank?) is about to register a huge bump in capacity (IIRC 3 million s.f. downtown and 1.5 million s.f. in midtown and .750 million in Williamson). 

Courtesy of NY Times via Bizjournals.com

http://media.bizj.us/view/img/12053816/downtown-business-districts-2-1*750xx.jpg

When was the 30 year office drought period?