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smeagolsfree

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Not a drought, but meager in comparison to the suburban office market, Cool Springs and Burton/Green Hills, Midtown and a few other pockets.  I recall in the late 80s, the airport area was kicking Downtown's butt.  Between 1986 (Nashville City Center) and 2012 there was only 1 substantial office tower built downtown in 1995, the "Bellsouth" (ATT) tower, albeit the biggest one to date, but compared to what was being built in the suburbs it was meager in comparison.  ATT wouldn't have been built without a tenant locked in. The Suntrust building in 2009 was big but comparable to what was going up in several office parks in WillCo at the time, and there was one on 3rd built in the early 90s.  Then Pinnacle in 2012 unplugged the downtown office market.  During that period, the CS and Brentwood office market exploded.  

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16 hours ago, Licec said:

When was the 30 year office drought period?

I remember an article (perhaps in the NBJ?) that compared the static 5 million sq ft of commercial space downtown to the growth of commercial space and corporate HQs in the I-65 corridor in Williamson County.  It said something like, "In 15 years, Williamson County will have as much office space as downtown Nashville."  I'm guessing this would have been about 15-20 years ago.  Maybe someone else has more details.

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36 minutes ago, dragonfly said:

Based on what past example? Maybe look at the history of L.A. and of Houston where I am. The metro here grew like gangbusters in several big spurts over the decades. Did that require rail? Nah. The first rail line opened right before Superbowl 38 in Feb. 2004. The metro population at that time? 4.5 M. The advent of rail in Houston has been shamefully wasteful and currently is the most dangerous in the world for train/motor vehicle collisions, even pedestrian deaths. The same cultists kept neglecting to control their rail envy and kept bringing it up for a vote for a couple decades and it kept getting voted down. Then finally when they scaled it back enough to minimum scale and with a NFL promised Superbowl coming onto the horizon, it passed. They managed to convince a few more people how shameful it would be for the city to host an event of that profile without shiny toy trains to show up in the video coverage. And so it opened in Jan. 2004.

Oh BTW Los Angeles managed to reach metro population of 13.5M in 1990 without rail and then their light rail opened that year.

 

Here you go one of many accidents every year: Woman Killed in Metro Light Rail Accident in Downtown Houston | Majic 102.1 (myhoustonmajic.com)

Law firm advertising for representation in Metrorail accident lawsuits here: METRORail Accident | Houston Train Crash Injury Lawyers (abrahamwatkins.com)

I’m in Houston frequently and the only time I’ve been on the light rail is to go to the rodeo, after scoring a cheap parking situation in the museum district. (Ten or so years ago when you could actually find a cheap place to park in the museum district!)

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I was talking to WW yesterday about this scenario and low and behold here it is.

Drought in Utah Town Halts Growth (msn.com)

I think the big boy cities in the west are in dire straights now as this drought is now 21 years old and Phoenix and Las Vegas in particular are going to be looking at tough decisions very, very soon regarding new growth. I am afraid the party is over and even if the drought ended tomorrow the best case scenario is a recovery time of ten years.

I expect we will be seeing more and more cities halting new homes and construction of all types very soon. Farmers in California have stopped planting up to a third of their fields and have paid for water they are not even recieved. This is the western bread basket where the majority of the fruits and vegetables come from. The drought extends into Montana where cattle are dying in the fields due to water and grass dying, not to mention a scourge of grasshoppers eating up to 10 times their weight.

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I haven't traveled to a lot of the big cities in the past year, but I went to Chicago last month and to Washington before Easter. For the first time ever, I got the sense that they are dying cities, and it's heartbreaking. That's just my sense and maybe a delayed effect of the pandemic, but the crime rates are not helping the image from outside. I can only imagine about NYC, as I've heard they're going to need years to get back where they were pre-pan. Regarding Chicago, when I was there I heard the whole city is hemorrhaging residents, but the Loop is still attracting people, and that's why the supertall residential towers are still going up. 

Anyway, that was a segue to this report I spotted on the Channel 17 site. 

https://fox17.com/news/local/2021-data-shows-renters-in-chicago-memphis-new-york-city-eye-nashville-for-relocation-clarksville-knoxville-atlanta-tennessee-economy-apartment-lifestyle-news

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2 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

I haven't traveled to a lot of the big cities in the past year, but I went to Chicago last month and to Washington before Easter. For the first time ever, I got the sense that they are dying cities, and it's heartbreaking. That's just my sense and maybe a delayed effect of the pandemic, but the crime rates are not helping the image from outside. I can only imagine about NYC, as I've heard they're going to need years to get back where they were pre-pan. Regarding Chicago, when I was there I heard the whole city is hemorrhaging residents, but the Loop is still attracting people, and that's why the supertall residential towers are still going up. 

Anyway, that was a segue to this report I spotted on the Channel 17 site. 

https://fox17.com/news/local/2021-data-shows-renters-in-chicago-memphis-new-york-city-eye-nashville-for-relocation-clarksville-knoxville-atlanta-tennessee-economy-apartment-lifestyle-news

tumblr_inline_p6m7swhWd71qzjix8_400.gifv

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Sorry dude! But you can disabuse me... it really was different from all my previous trips there. Not trying to stir up anything. I love Chicago (born about an hour north of there) but it just felt (dare I say) lame.  OK... "dying" may be a bit strong FOR NOW.   But straighten me out on the population "hemorrhaging" ...  comment as that came from one of the locals hosting our group there. Of course, he lives in the suburbs. 

Edited by MLBrumby
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4 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Sorry dude! But you can disabuse me... it really was different from all my previous trips there. Not trying to stir up anything. I love Chicago (born about an hour north of there) but it just felt (dare I say) lame.  OK... "dying" may be a bit strong FOR NOW.   But straighten me out on the population "hemorrhaging" ...  comment as that came from one of the locals hosting our group there. Of course, he lives in the suburbs. 

I’d move there in a heartbeat were it not for the weather! Best big city in the US imo.

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We also went to Chicago recently (also in April). The only time it felt off was the midweek portion of our trip and the downtown area being slow was easily explainable given so many people are working from home. Fri night, Sat, Sun were as vibrant and normal as usual sans some typical pandemic stuff like masks. I love Chicago and similar to above if I could afford to move downtown I would do it in a heartbeat... but that winter weather.... pass.

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Chicago still had a lot of restrictions in place in April as did most of IL. Some of those restriction may go back into effect I would bet if the Delta variant gets bad there. They were not planning on getting to Phase 5 reopening until June and some of the business's were not going to reopen until July.

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On 7/20/2021 at 6:57 PM, MLBrumby said:

Sorry dude! But you can disabuse me... it really was different from all my previous trips there. Not trying to stir up anything. I love Chicago (born about an hour north of there) but it just felt (dare I say) lame.  OK... "dying" may be a bit strong FOR NOW.   But straighten me out on the population "hemorrhaging" ...  comment as that came from one of the locals hosting our group there. Of course, he lives in the suburbs. 

Hey buddy, no harm no foul, so no apology necessary.  Your senses and feelings are your own, and I respect that, and I know you have a connection to the area and don't "have it out" for the city, as it were.  I guess it just gets a little old hearing that stuff from folks that aren't even here on a regular basis.  So with that said, I do wonder what these 'senses' of yours were based upon?  What neighborhoods were you in?  I mean, I'd be the first to admit that we undoubtedly have our share of issues up here, and one could certainly make a strong argument that Chicago is a stagnant city, but in what respect is it a "dying" city?   Hell, maybe I'm just biased, or maybe I'm in a 'boil the frog' situation where I just don't notice it because I'm here all the time.  But in my opinion things seem pretty normal, and in terms of overall vibrancy, liveliness, and pedestrian activity I'd say most typical reasonably healthy Chicago neighborhoods far surpass anywhere in Nashville outside of downtown... and that is not meant to be a knock on Nashville at all.  It's an inherently unfair comparison given the size difference between the two cities, but I'm just using it to illustrate a point that you would never call Nashville a "dying" city by that metric, so why Chicago?   Also, I'm not sure when in June you came, but Chicago wasn't even fully reopened from Covid restrictions until mid-June, so that played a big role I'm sure.  

As far as the claim that the city is "hemorrhaging" population goes, well, that's a subjective term of course, but overall the city seems to be more or less breaking even population wise.  Not that that's the goal by any means, of course, but in my opinion it's far from a place where I think it apropos to use terms like "dying" or "hemorrhaging" to describe it.  And hey, for all I know, the specific neighborhoods your friends were referring to may be doing just that.  But other neighborhoods are not only growing, but thriving.  In a city as large as Chicago blanket statements aren't really very useful.  

As for Washington DC, I don't know much about it so I won't go into it much, but I will say that if the 2020 population estimates are to be believed then DC is growing even faster than Nashville is, and by a pretty healthy margin (18% vs. 11%) so your assertion that it is "dying" came across as even more of a strange claim to me.  

 

Edited by BnaBreaker
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Well we do know that the states with the most population decline include Illinois, which is the 2nd worst state for population decline. But Chicago's metro population is relatively stagnant with a 0.5 % decline (at least from my limited research). 

https://www.cmap.illinois.gov/updates/all/-/asset_publisher/UIMfSLnFfMB6/content/population-loss-2020-census

 

Of course the sunbelt cities are on fire as people flee the progressive high-tax states.  But do these new residents bring the same bad policies with them and just repeat the process?

 

 

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Not to take things too far off track, but Chicago is like a second home to me. I'd move there in a heartbeat if I didn't despise the cold/winter with every fiber of my being. I visited earlier this month for the first time since August 2019 and couldn't tell much of a difference between the two visits, aside from a few more vacant storefronts. Granted, I stayed mostly in the Loop and Wrigleyville areas.

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3 hours ago, rolly said:

Well we do know that the states with the most population decline include Illinois, which is the 2nd worst state for population decline. But Chicago's metro population is relatively stagnant with a 0.5 % decline (at least from my limited research). 

https://www.cmap.illinois.gov/updates/all/-/asset_publisher/UIMfSLnFfMB6/content/population-loss-2020-census

 

Of course the sunbelt cities are on fire as people flee the progressive high-tax states.  But do these new residents bring the same bad policies with them and just repeat the process?

 

I won't try to postulate as to the reasons why people are moving, because I'm sure they vary from person to person, but your research into the population decline reflects what I've seen as well... Metro Chicago is more or less neutral while much of the more isolated down state areas are losing residents.

Edited by BnaBreaker
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8 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

Hey buddy, no harm no foul, so no apology necessary.  Your senses and feelings are your own, and I respect that, and I know you have a connection to the area and don't "have it out" for the city, as it were.  I guess it just gets a little old hearing that stuff from folks that aren't even here on a regular basis.  So with that said, I do wonder what these 'senses' of yours were based upon?  What neighborhoods were you in?  I mean, I'd be the first to admit that we undoubtedly have our share of issues up here, and one could certainly make a strong argument that Chicago is a stagnant city, but in what respect is it a "dying" city?   Hell, maybe I'm just biased, or maybe I'm in a 'boil the frog' situation where I just don't notice it because I'm here all the time.  But in my opinion things seem pretty normal, and in terms of overall vibrancy, liveliness, and pedestrian activity I'd say most typical reasonably healthy Chicago neighborhoods far surpass anywhere in Nashville outside of downtown... and that is not meant to be a knock on Nashville at all.  It's an inherently unfair comparison given the size difference between the two cities, but I'm just using it to illustrate a point that you would never call Nashville a "dying" city by that metric, so why Chicago?   Also, I'm not sure when in June you came, but Chicago wasn't even fully reopened from Covid restrictions until mid-June, so that played a big role I'm sure.  

As far as the claim that the city is "hemorrhaging" population goes, well, that's a subjective term of course, but overall the city seems to be more or less breaking even population wise.  Not that that's the goal by any means, of course, but in my opinion it's far from a place where I think it apropos to use terms like "dying" or "hemorrhaging" to describe it.  And hey, for all I know, the specific neighborhoods your friends were referring to may be doing just that.  But other neighborhoods are not only growing, but thriving.  In a city as large as Chicago blanket statements aren't really very useful.  

As for Washington DC, I don't know much about it so I won't go into it much, but I will say that if the 2020 population estimates are to be believed then DC is growing even faster than Nashville is, and by a pretty healthy margin (18% vs. 11%) so your assertion that it is "dying" came across as even more of a strange claim to me.  

 

Good points. I agree with others here and love Chicago but can't see myself living there. As noted, the "dying" comment was too strong.  However things were noticably slower than any time I've ever stayed downtown and I attributed that to things still not recovered from the 'shutdown'. I also knew that it's unfair to compare this trip to previous trips, but some things really struck me this time (see below).

My comments are subjective and based on a single trip, albeit recent.  So some specifics are called for here.  I took a corporate job in the fall of 2019, and this was only my third business trip since the pandemic. I don't travel nearly as much in this position.  So traveling these days is different in countless ways, from beginning to end. Also the travel budget at my previous job (a firm) was more 'generous' as it's customarily at the clients' expense. Whereas I used to stay at the Westin across from Hancock, it was always lively just steps from my room. This time we stayed at the Hyatt Regency (my first time there) Tues/Wed nights, not a weekend. While the hotel isn't in my favorite part of downtown, our work was on Randolph; so it's convenient. Our hosts were not up for entertaining us either; so we didn't leave the hotel for dinner this time.  However, we took an early evening walk up Michigan on Wednesday to Water Tower. That said, I can't fairly compare the accommodations of this trip to prior trips. 

I've no doubt that reports of rising violence in the city have affected the perceptions of safety, fair or unfair. I also know that those areas are not where we were, and previous trips to any city can't compare to the way things are currently (I hope temporarily). Although there was a shooting in Wrigleyville a week after we were there. On previous business trips to Chicago in summer, I've always noticed the tremendous volume of families visiting there. This time I saw so few of them.  I also saw many closed/dark store fronts along Michigan Ave. and far more homeless people than before.  I wanted to walk over to Lakeshore Park, but one of our group said she didn't feel safe. So we punted. I hope I'm wrong, and "dying" won't apply if these are temporary observations. I've never felt unsafe in downtown Chicago before this trip. Our host executive didn't help matters either, as I'm sure he played up the rise in crime in the city. I can only guess he's delighted that his house in the suburbs has shot up in value. 

Regarding DC, there's still an awful lot of store fronts boarded up, and (as in Chicago) very few families where they always used to be. The fencing was still around the Capitol then.  I hope it's all temporary, but we know how powerful perceptions are, and I vaguely remember the late 1970s and early 1980s when people were fleeing the inner cities everywhere.  We became spoiled during the late 80s and into this decade as people felt very safe in cities. Was that just an aberration?  Time will tell.  It all inures to how secure/safe people feel there (residents and visitors alike).  I can't help getting the sense that we're heading there again. I hope not, and I'm sure that's not specific to Chicago/DC. 

Edited by MLBrumby
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