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Nashville Bits and Pieces


smeagolsfree

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15 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

 

That's just terrible but not surprising.  Memphis has THE WORST leadership in the country, from city to county to "chicken" man in the US House. Awful! Even their corporate leadership is lacking. Their Fortune 500 companies are bent on keeping their HQs in the suburbs. Of course, it's probably a chicken-egg situation. A few years ago the chamber of commerce president was murdered in a random robbery downtown.  They're trying, but it takes a leader. 

Please refrain from the drive-by political tangents.

If you want to have a discussion about why you think Steve Cohen is terrible, I'd be happy to participate in that discussion in the coffee house as it has been repeatedly made clear that the audience for political opinions is pretty small compared to the audience for this particular thread/discussion. I will note, however, "chicken man" and "Awful!" are not particularly compelling arguments, and saying Steve and the Memphis leadership is the worst in the country leaves your position open to a lot of counterexamples that I think you're going to have a hard time defending. 

I'd also like to point out to the mods that if you want to nip the political tangents in the bud, MLBrumby's post would be the place to start, right? 

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3 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

Just based on what I am seeing, Davidson should surpass Shelby in population by the next census or very close to it based on current growth levels, but I think our % of growth is about to increase. WE should easily get 200k more resident in the next 10 years.

Don't count on it. That's Houston level growth. Even Austin didn't add that numerical growth in a decade.  100k would actually be a bit ambitious right now. 

 

Keep in mind that Big Shelby is 50% larger in land area than Davidson. Davidson County would be more than 600 ppsm denser than Shelby if they had the same population. County-wide. Think about that...

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23 minutes ago, UTgrad09 said:

Don't count on it. That's Houston level growth. Even Austin didn't add that numerical growth in a decade.  100k would actually be a bit ambitious right now. 

 

Keep in mind that Big Shelby is 50% larger in land area than Davidson. Davidson County would be more than 600 ppsm denser than Shelby if they had the same population. County-wide. Think about that...

I don’t even want to think about how bad traffic would be if 928k lived in Davidson Co. 

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11 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

Nashville is about to become more dense, and all that area in the burbs around I 24 and the Joelton exit is about to get pounced on. Thus sayeth the ball. So much for those folks trying to keep it farm land up there. Once a developer buys it, property rights take over. It will spread from the interstate out.

That ill be the next Antioch.

I grew up in the I-24 Whites Creek area. If growth does come that way I really hope that the state is looking into expanding the interstate all the the way to Clarksville. It's already a cluster during rush hour now I can only imagine years from now when all the projected growth is to take place. It's the only interstate in Davidson County that still has two lanes going each way.

Edited by jkc2j
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2 hours ago, Bos2Nash said:

Are you suggesting bigger roads (i'm genuinely asking this)? I know the highways have been a hot button issue for some, but I would argue that DOT should be looking at the numbers and asking the state and Metro counties about possibilities of other modes of transportation, ie Mass Transit. One of the sticking points of the Transit Referendum was Davidson County didn't approach DOT (supposedly) with some of the light rail planned for State Roads. DOT should be looking at the numbers and looking at the cities and begin thinking how the state roads can help with transportation beyond just roadways.

There are still many roadway improvements that will need to be made…and there are certain areas where widening will be needed.  But in the end…that only goes so far.  I’m not sure how much other modes of transportation to and from surrounding counties will help unless it’s something massive.  I don’t know what it will take for the metro area / state to invest over $20 Billion (probably more)  to do it right.

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To counter UTGrads argument about not enough land for 200k more people I guess I have to say come on Kevin, Nashville is like any other growing city as it will become more dense as time goes on. There will eventually be mass transit to move the folks living in the core around. With the availability of land on the East bank, I will say there could easily be anywhere from 30 to 60 thousand more people living in a very dense neighborhood once that comes to realization.

What is considered downtown will have another 20 to 30 thousand over the next 10 years with no problem. The West End / Mid Town area has not even begun to meet the potential amount of folks that could live in the mid, and high-rises that will be built over there in the next ten years. It is getting ready to explode. With the cost of single family homes rising, multi-family is going to be more of the answer and most folks do not want large homes and yards. Besides they are getting too expensive.

The majority of that 200k will be living in the core or close to it.

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4 hours ago, titanhog said:

There are still many roadway improvements that will need to be made…and there are certain areas where widening will be needed.  But in the end…that only goes so far.  I’m not sure how much other modes of transportation to and from surrounding counties will help unless it’s something massive.  I don’t know what it will take for the metro area / state to invest over $20 Billion (probably more)  to do it right.

Agreed that widening roads should never be taken off the table, it's just that it isn't a viable long term strategy for traffic control (like you said.)  It'd be like someone just continuously buying a bigger belt every year to accommodate their expanding gut and telling people they're health conscious.  

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4 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

To counter UTGrads argument about not enough land for 200k more people I guess I have to say come on Kevin, Nashville is like any other growing city as it will become more dense as time goes on. There will eventually be mass transit to move the folks living in the core around. With the availability of land on the East bank, I will say there could easily be anywhere from 30 to 60 thousand more people living in a very dense neighborhood once that comes to realization.

What is considered downtown will have another 20 to 30 thousand over the next 10 years with no problem. The West End / Mid Town area has not even begun to meet the potential amount of folks that could live in the mid, and high-rises that will be built over there in the next ten years. It is getting ready to explode. With the cost of single family homes rising, multi-family is going to be more of the answer and most folks do not want large homes and yards. Besides they are getting too expensive.

The majority of that 200k will be living in the core or close to it.

Yeah, at first I had thought about it the same way as UTgrad, that most of the easily developed land had already been developed so there wouldn't be quick gains from say a new subdivision opening. Murfreesboro will presumably run against that wall very soon unless it annexes surrounding areas or starts to build up. But just looking at all the industrial areas in Nashville turning into 5-6 story apartment buildings, each will add a ton of people, even at suboptimal occupancy (downtown housing units were at ~70% occupancy based on the census). And while I don't think it should be developed (forests are nice), there's plenty of undeveloped/barely developed land to the west/NW that is sitting at near-zero population. Considering only the census sub-tracts touching the western edge of Davidson County, that is 129.9 square miles with a population of 20k (156/mi^2).

I think most would agree that 3,000 people/mi^2 is a realistic density for a Southern city (that's around the density of Bellevue or Sylvan Park), and that would correspond to a "capacity" of 1.5 million people for Nashville. Yeah, it's a huge city-county, but many other spread-out cities have similarly large areas and sit at around that density (Indianapolis, Charlotte, etc.).

That said, I think +50-100k over the next 10 years is more likely. If housing costs continue to climb as they have, that will put a damper on some of the migration, and families will move farther out (taking children with them). Also, population growth in the U.S. as a whole is slowing down. There are plenty of factors that would work against the population zooming towards its potential "capacity."

 

Edited by AsianintheNations
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6 hours ago, smeagolsfree said:

To counter UTGrads argument about not enough land for 200k more people I guess I have to say come on Kevin, Nashville is like any other growing city as it will become more dense as time goes on. There will eventually be mass transit to move the folks living in the core around. With the availability of land on the East bank, I will say there could easily be anywhere from 30 to 60 thousand more people living in a very dense neighborhood once that comes to realization.

What is considered downtown will have another 20 to 30 thousand over the next 10 years with no problem. The West End / Mid Town area has not even begun to meet the potential amount of folks that could live in the mid, and high-rises that will be built over there in the next ten years. It is getting ready to explode. With the cost of single family homes rising, multi-family is going to be more of the answer and most folks do not want large homes and yards. Besides they are getting too expensive.

The majority of that 200k will be living in the core or close to it.

Go look at the Census and show me which cities grew by 200k over the last decade. Cities proper, not metros.

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Very easy to do to show one of our peer cities (Austin) has  done it once and almost did  it in a previous decade and one (Charlotte)  has almost done it in the past! I am using different decades in the past to show this has happened before and can and will happen again. 

Austin 

1990 -465,622

2000-656,562 increase190,940

2010-790,390 

2020-995,000 increase 204,610 that was a growth rate of 21%.

Charlotte

1990-395,934

2000-540,828

2010-731,424  this is the decade they came very close to hitting that mark. missed it by 9k

2020-874,579

Another city of note was Phoenix which hit the mark. (went from 1.4 m to 1.6m) The one thing you fail to mention is the fact that the growth trends mention that city growth will continue to accelerate and rural areas will continue to decrease as people continue to flock to cities and rural areas for jobs and quality of life despite politics. I do think that the older folks that were born in those rural areas will just stay and die in those areas, but the younger folks will just give up and move on to greener pastures and this next decade will show that.

You will also see a huge migration east from the west as water shortages and over taxed companies continue to flee California to business friendly states and cities like TX, TN & Austin & Nashville. I think this trend is only going to accelerate.

 

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17 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

Very easy to do to show one of our peer cities (Austin) has  done it once and almost did  it in a previous decade and one (Charlotte)  has almost done it in the past! I am using different decades in the past to show this has happened before and can and will happen again. 

Austin 

1990 -465,622

2000-656,562 increase190,940

2010-790,390 

2020-995,000 increase 204,610 that was a growth rate of 21%.

Charlotte

1990-395,934

2000-540,828

2010-731,424  this is the decade they came very close to hitting that mark. missed it by 9k

2020-874,579

Another city of note was Phoenix which hit the mark. (went from 1.4 m to 1.6m) The one thing you fail to mention is the fact that the growth trends mention that city growth will continue to accelerate and rural areas will continue to decrease as people continue to flock to cities and rural areas for jobs and quality of life despite politics. I do think that the older folks that were born in those rural areas will just stay and die in those areas, but the younger folks will just give up and move on to greener pastures and this next decade will show that.

You will also see a huge migration east from the west as water shortages and over taxed companies continue to flee California to business friendly states and cities like TX, TN & Austin & Nashville. I think this trend is only going to accelerate.

 

Agree about the changes in rural and urban. Rural areas offer fewer opportunities and will continue to shrink. Will continue to shape our politics.

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1 hour ago, jmtunafish said:

Here's a visual of the region's population density broken down by census tracts:

image.png.759bd663b3cef4d1d75e156825b199b6.png

And the population change by county.  The darker the blue, the faster the population growth.  The darker the brown, the faster the population loss.

When the next census hits expect the area between the "TN" logo and the "Murfreesboro" lol to be dark blue.  The area around 840 is blowing up.  And the sprawl from Franklin is coming from Carothers to Long Lane out to Arno.   There's farm land all over that area getting re-molded into subdivisions.  

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