Nashville Bits and Pieces

[donNdonelson2]

10 minutes ago, PaulChinetti said:

I won’t even try to act like I know but what is going on in Fayetteville, Arkansas?

It’s a very charming university town and its location near the town that is home to Walmart HQ provides attraction for companies doing business with that retail giant, I’m sure.  I spent a week there several years ago for work and I did NOT hate it, nor would I choose to move there. But it sure beats Peoria!!!

[MLBrumby]

Wally World... Wal-Mart and all the companies that support it. 

It's also a university town, which simply attracts people in the region. I'd guess it's a big retirement hub now. 

Remember, a lot of times the ranking is based on percentages, and the actual number is based on the size of the market. Fayetteville is pretty small. 

[titanhog]

4 hours ago, PaulChinetti said:

I won’t even try to act like I know but what is going on in Fayetteville, Arkansas?

Fayetteville, AR is more of a region than a city.  They’re really talking about Fayetteville, Springdale, Bentonville and Rogers.  Because of Wal Mart money combined with Tyson, JB Hunt and other large corporations…not to mention major money going towards art, education, etc…it’s a really booming area.  Beautiful area, as well.

[BnaBreaker]

I know that for me, I always go to northwest Arkansas for the spaghetti.  

[smeagolsfree]

13 hours ago, PaulChinetti said:

I won’t even try to act like I know but what is going on in Fayetteville, Arkansas?

Fayetteville has  been on most of these list for some time now. Don’t let your prejudices blind you when it comes to certain cities or regions. There are pockets of any state that can surprise you.

The not so big surprise, surprise on the list was Columbus. I am glad to see it starting to pop up on some of these list. Right now Columbus & Indianapolis are the only cities in the region that are growing and Columbus is now the growth leader in Ohio with the city at .86 and the Metro at 1.26% annual growth. These are really the only cities showing any solid growth in Ohio, IN, IL, PA, NY as all of the others are either slow, stagnant, or negative growth. The city of Indy is growing a little over a half percent but the Metro is about 1.5. You would think Philadelphia and Cincinnati would be growing faster but Indy seems to be the fastest growing of all but not by much over Columbus.

I may have missed some of the numbers, so don’t crucify me as I did this on the fly or from memory. I keep a lot of the numbers from these cities in my head to a certain degree as I look at them so often. Philadelphia looks like they are growing from the construction, but like Chicago when you have a population over 5 million you can drop population or not gain much and still build a lot of large buildings.

[andywildman]

15 hours ago, PaulChinetti said:

I won’t even try to act like I know but what is going on in Fayetteville, Arkansas?

Mostly Walmart and its layers of suppliers, but also the University of Arkansas, little bit of tourism with the nearby Ozarks. 

[Baronakim]

I think a number of my recent comments  may not have been particularly enthusiasticly or well received by some.  At the moment I am vey skeptical of the Storyville proposals for example for reasons I post there.  I think that I should clarify my viewpoin on things happening in many areas of the city including "historic" areas.   I'll start with Lower Broad.  Of those streets, First Avenue North is the most honest survivor. Of the rest, you would have to have lived long enough to actually remember the original streetscapes.  Nashville as I recall it in the 1950s was NASTY.  For contrast, I actually bought stuff in the Acme Feed Store....vastly different from the use today.  Many of all of these buildings still had dirt floors back then and Second Avenue was bare of trees and sidewalks.  Loading areas and lots of heavy worn fronts was the norm.. Lots of dusty windows and peeling paint on fronts was visable.  On First Avene, the river banks were open and sloping sites full of unpaved and haphazard parking dominated by the ugly concrete warehouse at the foot of Broad..  Nothing could be more different now as the originals are buried in a veneer of honkytonkism...which IMO is really great as it has saved the reminants from being rebuilt as glass and steel storefronts.   Likewise, the old history of the Gulch end of Broadway is being dwarfed... Union Station, the Custom House, Hume Fogg and Christ Church Cathedral are well preserved and are being essentially resited in the deep urban  canyons being built now.  But IMO the integration is well conceived and  will be great.  Some of you  complain of how bad some new buildings are... the Westin, Haven (well, THAT is truely dreadful).  Of what few of you are aware is just how bad these areas were 30 years ago.  By contrast, it is miraculous.  I remember how dangerous McGavock and Demonbreum were back then...empty boarded one story structures in the middle of a sea of unpaved parking.  Leven this with acres of broken bottles and windows, passed out drunks and overflowing trash bins.  That is why I have very little sympathy with the whining of most of the historic preservationist's complaints.  In many cases, they attempt to glorify surviving areas as much more glorious than they were.  Maybe they were 150 years ago, but most of that is long gone in Nashville.  Likewise, most of Church Street  and West End is Gone with the Wind too.  By all mean, preserve the best of the surviving sites, but IMO the best things to do are closer to the extent of Broad West.  I am very pleased to see big residential  and hotel projects replacing a lot of the 1960s junk there.    I think one of the worst reuses was the unimpressive AT&T  store at 15th & West END though...a shameful waste of a good site.   I don't miss the loss of the  old Baptist Medical Arts building at all and there is just enough of the Elliston Place main block to be worth saving...nothing west of it though remains worth a damn after Father Ryan HS was razed IMO...includiing Emma's and Rotiers.  Hit and miss old buildings do not make a "historic' district, just sad and isolated survivors to hang around for a few more decades.    I guess my main opinion is that Nashville has been very successful in transitioning into a new millenium overall.   I do still contend however, that not everything is so great...especially a great deal of the GHASTLY mid-scale residential being built in geedy haste because Metro allows it.  We do NOT need so much architectural mishmosh, just good design please. Well, I  have expressed some of my feeling about where we are headed, so I'll step off  my soapbox now.  In summery, I think no matter how bad some things in Nashville may seem, I must point out that largely it was worse 50 years ago.  I was here, I know.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Baronakim
spelling

[TNinVB]

Saw this on the I Remember Nashville When Facebook page. It’s a trip to 100 Oaks Mall on Sunday, November 14, 1976. I was just a little over a month away from turning 3.  Everything looks the same expect for the cars. Once they arrive at the mall, it looks nothing like we know or today. By the time mt family moved to the area in 1988, I don’t think 100 Oaks was much of a destination. At that time, I remember Hickory Hollow being the place to go. On that note, glad to see that it going to be put to a good use that will have staying power. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by TNinVB

[KJHburg]

Congratulations Nashville metro area tops over 2 Million for the first time.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/population-estimates-counties-decrease.html

""Having gained 17,133 residents between 2020 and 2021, Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN, crossed the threshold of 2 million residents, for a total population of 2,012,476.""

[Baronakim]

1 hour ago, TNinVB said:

Saw this on the I Remember Nashville When Facebook page. It’s a trip to 100 Oaks Mall on Sunday, November 14, 1976. I was just a little over a month away from turning 3.  Everything looks the same expect for the cars. Once they arrive at the mall, it looks nothing like we know or today. By the time mt family moved to the area in 1988, I don’t think 100 Oaks was much of a destination. At that time, I remember Hickory Hollow being the place to go. On that note, glad to see that it going to be put to a good use that will have staying power. 

"Looks the same except for the cars"?  Maybe  you mised the blocks of  homes torn down and replaced with McMansions  Looks to be turning out of the driveway just east of Belmont.  For those of you newer to Nashville, Woodmont was the main access road to get to 100 Oaks Mall because there was NO intertstate exit at Armory Drive at all.  It seems the developers of the Mall failed to remunerate some of the city officials adequately to allow one to be built.  At the time of this film, Hickory Hollow did not exist having just broken ground.  Rivergate Mall was only about 5 years old and Green Hills was a high end strip shopping center and not a Mall at all.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Baronakim

[Hey_Hey]

10 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Congratulations Nashville metro area tops over 2 Million for the first time.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/population-estimates-counties-decrease.html

""Having gained 17,133 residents between 2020 and 2021, Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN, crossed the threshold of 2 million residents, for a total population of 2,012,476.""

That’s really anemic growth for Nashville. Just a few years ago (circa 2013-2016) we were growing at over 35,000 residents per year. What’s odd is that the growth seems to have actually sped up in the last few years compared that prior time, although that may be more of a function of the type of growth (buildings, high profile companies, etc) and not significant numerical growth. 
 

A few questions: 

1. Has Nashville’s growth actually declined that much or is this inaccurate?

2. Has the cost of living changed the income/wealth of people moving here? Are those 17,000 new people generally higher income and the lower income residents are having to look elsewhere?

3. What does the future hold? Will we see a resurgence of growth rates again? 

[dmillsphoto]

4 minutes ago, Hey_Hey said:

That’s really anemic growth for Nashville. Just a few years ago (circa 2013-2016) we were growing at over 35,000 residents per year. What’s odd is that the growth seems to have actually sped up in the last few years compared that prior time, although that may be more of a function of the type of growth (buildings, high profile companies, etc) and not significant numerical growth. 
 

A few questions: 

1. Has Nashville’s growth actually declined that much or is this inaccurate?

2. Has the cost of living changed the income/wealth of people moving here? Are those 17,000 new people generally higher income and the lower income residents are having to look elsewhere?

3. What does the future hold? Will we see a resurgence of growth rates again? 

Captain  @UTgrad09  white courtesy phone, Captain @UTgrad09 white courtesy phone

[MLBrumby]

5 hours ago, Hey_Hey said:

That’s really anemic growth for Nashville. Just a few years ago (circa 2013-2016) we were growing at over 35,000 residents per year. What’s odd is that the growth seems to have actually sped up in the last few years compared that prior time, although that may be more of a function of the type of growth (buildings, high profile companies, etc) and not significant numerical growth. 
 

A few questions: 

1. Has Nashville’s growth actually declined that much or is this inaccurate?

2. Has the cost of living changed the income/wealth of people moving here? Are those 17,000 new people generally higher income and the lower income residents are having to look elsewhere?

3. What does the future hold? Will we see a resurgence of growth rates again? 

Reporters get awfully careless with numbers.  Safe to say it is inaccurate and too low by half. For decades the sources in Nashville for those m-c estimates don't care to be close, which may explain partly how they get far behind on planning for growth (infrastructure, etc.).  There were over 12,000 new residential permits issued in Davidson County during that period.  https://data.nashville.gov/Licenses-Permits/Building-Permits-Issued-Map-/dmrx-ey8e  Assuming 2/3 were completed in that timeframe (tough to pin down but I assumed a rolling number from a year before and since) and a very conservative 1.33 per unit occupied, then a very rough estimate of the population growth in Davidson alone would be slightly under 10,700*.  Murfreesboro and Rutherford keeps a little better permit summaries (1200 and 1100 respectively), but I don't know about Smyrna and Lavergne. They're probably not far off the county number (let's say 1000) for a total guesstimate of 3300. As a suburban county it probably has a higher number of occupants per house, conservatively using 1.8 (probably actually 2+) for approximately 5700, and that's low compared to the historical annual growth totals of the past decade (8,000 per year). I don't know how the whole pandemic affected growth trends in TN, but there have been several articles in local and national pubs that stated TN was a beneficiary of people moving during the "shutdown".  *Given the record low "days on market" of houses in the MSA and the growth of the housing stock, it's safe to say just Davidson & Rutherford are around that 17,000 figure (I conservatively calculated 16,600), and that doesn't even include Williamson, Wilson and Sumner which collectively have grown by just under 14000 per year in the past decade.

Midcensus estimates statewide are consistently low:  always lower than the final count since 1990, which was notoriously undercounted.  The Boyd Center at UTK is better at their estimates but they've been consistently under actual counts in the past 2 decades by 10-15% from the census figures. https://tnsdc.utk.edu/estimates-and-projections/boyd-center-population-projections/   Even they show an annual increase for Nashville's MSA of 30,000 in each of the 20-21 and 21-22 timeframes.  I don't know where the consistent underestimating happens; if the permitting office is simply slow with their numbers or the counties, or CofC simply doesn't track. But I do believe there is a link to the low estimates and the woeful lag in infrastructure planning. And I'm not just ragging on TDOT's pathetic lack of planning and archaic financial practices. "Pay Go"... really? [smh]

[BnaBreaker]

According to this map from the US Census, they estimate that Davidson County actually lost more than 1.6% of it's population between 2020 and 2021?!  How the hell is that even possible?

[MLBrumby]

Seeing that, I'm convinced it's poor record keeping by Metro.  A loss doesn't even follow trends. The mayor should call an audit sometime in the next year (maybe a bit soon for that now). 

As noted in my post, they've been inaccurate (do they even know what to look at?) and it appears to be institutional.  What's the growth?  Unfortunately at this point (so soon after the decennial count) it appears they haven't even updated the number of new voters or address changes from the USPS, at minimum.  And that hurts beyond infrastructure... it's politically savvy to know approximately how many people are moving/born into your district. Also, it is essential to get accurate property tax projections... not to mention bond ratings, federal/state grants, and the favorable press that comes with being a growing city.  Butch Spyridon should jump on that pronto!!! 

Edited March 24, 2022 by MLBrumby

[MontanaGuy]

21 minutes ago, MLBrumby said:

Seeing that, I'm convinced it's poor record keeping by Metro.  A loss doesn't even follow trends. The mayor should call an audit sometime in the next year (maybe a bit soon for that now). 

I agree that it doesn't seem possible but BnaBreaker showed those Census Bureau figures and those wouldn't have anything to do with Metro, it would be the result of the actual count from the Census unless I'm completely misunderstanding this.  But it also shows big increases for all of the surrounding counties so I'm wondering if it could be a result of people moving from Davidson County to the suburbs, that's exactly what I did three years ago and a lot of people did the same thing.   

[MLBrumby]

That's not from the Census. They're mid-census estimates (for 2020-21 in this case), and Nashville/Tennessee have a fairly poor record of making accurate estimates. I speculate that this has a lot to do with their record keeping and the retrieval to such figures. Apparently not a priority. No matter what you might think of growth slowing or accelerating in Davidson County, nothing points to an actual loss of residents in the single year given above. The so-called "housing shortage" alone is a big tip-off, and there aren't enough AirBNB companies to explain that they've all been bought up for rentals. It's an anomaly, and I'm quite sure it has so much to do with the link above stating the MSA increased by only 17,000 people. I'd say a deeper dive will reveal that Davidson County punted on providing real, verifiable figures to the US Census Bureau. 

[UTgrad09]

Thank you for the bat signal, @dmillsphoto.

 

First of all, the Census release is the yearly estimate. Keyword: estimate. We've seen how far off the numbers have been preceding the official count*. 

Second of all, this estimate was in the middle of Covid. The numbers are in flux for a lot of places. A lot of people were avoiding cities in favor of less dense areas for social distancing or to escape from areas with strict limitations or guidelines (btw, this is not an invitation to talk politics. If you quote this post and respond with your dumb political opinions, I will straight up murder you). 

I would expect to see a lot of places that showed huge losses to either follow with gains in the coming years, or to see "corrections" to the past estimates (as the Census Bureau often does).

Did Davidson County lose that many people between 2020 and 2021? It's possible. But I find it highly unlikely. More likely that growth just slowed for several months.  I have a hard time believing that Davidson would *lose* that much population, but Williamson and Rutherford's growth would basically be unfazed. It's hard for me to imagine that everywhere in the metro continued growing at its normal annual rate, but Davidson County suddenly reversed from 9k annual growth to -12k all of a sudden. I feel like that trend would have been reflected with other counties in the metro (especially if it were a COL thing or a change in the metro's popularity).

I suspect in a couple of years, you'll see 2021 adjusted up at least a  few thousand.

 

*and even the official count faces scrutiny for likely undercounting  some groups -- especially immigrants and minorities in cities.

[PostRural]

1 hour ago, UTgrad09 said:

(btw, this is not an invitation to talk politics. If you quote this post and respond with your dumb political opinions, I will straight up murder you). 

This is awesome! hahaha! that is all. 

[jmtunafish]

While we're on the subject of 2021 population estimates, here's how Tennessee's metropolitan and micropolitan areas did.  Supposedly.  I don't trust these numbers much, and I'm afraid it might be a while before we have an accurate count.  I suspect some counties will do their own counts within the next year or two and then try to have those numbers certified by the Census Bureau.  If I remember correctly, that can be done twice between official censuses.  Fast-growing areas typically take advantage of that, as higher official population numbers = more federal dollars.

Anyway, even though I don't think these numbers are accurate, they do paint a picture of what's generally happening in Tennessee which is that West Tennessee continues to languish, the Knoxville area is starting to take off, and many rural areas of Middle and East Tennessee are starting to see some growth for the first time in decades, particularly Lawrenceburg, McMinnville, Greeneville, and Athens.  And the Tri Cities area is also seeing more growth than it has in the last few years.

area...2021 population...change from 2020 census
Nashville...2,012,476...22,957
Memphis...1,336,103...-1,676
Knoxville...893,412...13,639
Chattanooga...567,641...4,994
Clarksville...328,304...7,769
Kingsport-Bristol...308,661...1,047
Johnson City...208,068...783
Jackson...180,799...295
Morristown...143,855...1,146
Cleveland...127,938...1,993
Cookeville...115,777...1,795
Tullahoma-Manchester...108,891...1,767
Sevierville...99,517...1,137
Greeneville...70,621...469
Crossville...62,451...1,306
Athens...54,059...783
Shelbyville...51,119...882
Lawrenceburg...44,828...669
McMinnville...41,523...570
Dyersburg...36,615...-186
Newport...36,418...419
Lewisburg...34,984...666
Dayton...33,136...266
Martin...33,036...134
Paris...32,239...40
Union City...30,466...-321
Brownsville...17,694...-170

[markhollin]

1) Tennessee expected to grow by 1 million people over the next 20 years, mostly in the Nashville region according to Univ. of Tennessee's Boyd Center for Business and Economic growth.

More at Fox 17 here:

https://fox17.com/news/local/tennessee-expected-to-grow-by-1-million-people-next-20-years-mostly-in-nashville-region-population-real-estate-relocation?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2022.03.25 NASH&utm_term=NASHtoday Subscribers - MASTER



2) Tennessee has made over $92 million in taxes from Airbnb, according to the company. This is a 185% increase compared to Tennessee Department of Revenue remitted taxes in years past. Data shows Davidson County earning $34 million of that total sum alone. 

More at Fox 17 here:

https://fox17.com/news/local/tennessee-receives-92-million-from-airbnb-taxes-davidson-sevier-bring-highest-totals-nashville-gatlinburg-chattanooga-knoxville-memphis-vacation-rentals?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2022.03.25 NASH&utm_term=NASHtoday Subscribers - MASTER

[nashville born]

Why am I so excited about this?  I'm glad you asked.  I've been rooting for some action in this part of downtown since I started following the UP Nashville community.  Could it finally be about to happen???  Between this news and the TPAC talk, fingers crossed!

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/development/downtown-mixed-use-building-listed-for-undisclosed-price/article_f23856bc-aba0-11ec-985f-47fb468a2caf.html

[Pdt2f]

14 hours ago, UTgrad09 said:

Thank you for the bat signal, @dmillsphoto.

 

First of all, the Census release is the yearly estimate. Keyword: estimate. We've seen how far off the numbers have been preceding the official count*. 

Second of all, this estimate was in the middle of Covid. The numbers are in flux for a lot of places. A lot of people were avoiding cities in favor of less dense areas for social distancing or to escape from areas with strict limitations or guidelines (btw, this is not an invitation to talk politics. If you quote this post and respond with your dumb political opinions, I will straight up murder you). 

I would expect to see a lot of places that showed huge losses to either follow with gains in the coming years, or to see "corrections" to the past estimates (as the Census Bureau often does).

Did Davidson County lose that many people between 2020 and 2021? It's possible. But I find it highly unlikely. More likely that growth just slowed for several months.  I have a hard time believing that Davidson would *lose* that much population, but Williamson and Rutherford's growth would basically be unfazed. It's hard for me to imagine that everywhere in the metro continued growing at its normal annual rate, but Davidson County suddenly reversed from 9k annual growth to -12k all of a sudden. I feel like that trend would have been reflected with other counties in the metro (especially if it were a COL thing or a change in the metro's popularity).

I suspect in a couple of years, you'll see 2021 adjusted up at least a  few thousand.

 

*and even the official count faces scrutiny for likely undercounting  some groups -- especially immigrants and minorities in cities.

Could any population slowdown or loss be due to families moving out and singles/couples without children moving in? I don’t have any stats about this, just anecdotal, but probably 3/4 of the couples with children that I know have left Davidson over the past few years. I still know a few holdouts but some of them want to leave too. Hell, I wanted to stay but we still ended up in Sumner County. Again, anecdotal, but our family of four (expected to be five by early July) was replaced in our old home by a couple without kids. 
 

Also, I know that much of the new apartment construction basically maxes at 2 bedroom units, and even those are so prohibitively expensive that it basically demands high earning single roommates splitting rent. 

[Nash_12South]

My own observations are that quite a number of couples with kids are still moving in, at least into 12 South. I've never seen the playground, at Sevier Park, more full of toddlers and young parents. Every morning there is a steady stream of parents and kids making their way to Waverly Belmont Elementary. I've seen a number of neighbors stick with public school through the 8th grade and then look for private options.  I even have one friend who recently returned to East Nashville with 3 young kids and hubby, from Brentwood, because between the quiet and the politics they weren't happy.

Edited March 25, 2022 by Nash_12South

[timmay143]

Don't know if anybody has heard of Harry Mack but...