Nashville Bits and Pieces

[downtownresident]

15 minutes ago, markhollin said:

Freddie O'Connell is running for mayor of Nashville in 2023. The metro councilman represents downtown/Germantown, and tends to be more pro-development than some of his other compatriots.

More at The Tennessean here:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2022/04/28/council-member-freddie-oconnell-announces-2023-bid-nashville-mayor/9562263002/

 

If I still lived in Nashville I would easily vote for Freddie. 

[Bark At The Sun]

Crews setting up for Jack White concerts over the weekend, and kicking off the concert season at Ascend Amphitheater

[CenterHill]

1 hour ago, Bark At The Sun said:

Crews setting up for Jack White concerts over the weekend, and kicking off the concert season at Ascend Amphitheater

Awesome.  I'll be there tomorrow night  

[downtownresident]

Mayor Coopers budget proposal was released: https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2022/04/29/cooper-budget-proposal-fy2023.html

Some major development/transit related pieces are included: 

• 19 new roles at the Planning Department and 35 new roles at the Codes Department, both of which bear most of the government strain caused by Nashville's unyielding real estate construction boom. 
• 45 new positions at the Nashville Department of Transportation & Multimodal Infrastructure, and a $10.4 million funding increase for WeGo Public Transit.

[Nashvillain]

21 minutes ago, downtownresident said:

Mayor Coopers budget proposal was released: https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2022/04/29/cooper-budget-proposal-fy2023.html

Some major development/transit related pieces are included: 

• 19 new roles at the Planning Department and 35 new roles at the Codes Department, both of which bear most of the government strain caused by Nashville's unyielding real estate construction boom. 
• 45 new positions at the Nashville Department of Transportation & Multimodal Infrastructure, and a $10.4 million funding increase for WeGo Public Transit.

Here's the document: Presentation title (nashville.gov)

[Pdt2f]

Combined duplicate posts....

@Pdt2f

https://fox17.com/news/local/thousands-more-people-are-moving-out-of-nashville-than-moving-in-report-shows
 

Another article regarding population in Nashville declining in 2021 (allegedly). 

@Brichar4

Interesting article, curious how long this trend will last and the impact it may have on Development 

[markhollin]

14 hours ago, Pdt2f said:

https://fox17.com/news/local/thousands-more-people-are-moving-out-of-nashville-than-moving-in-report-shows
 

Another article regarding population in Nashville declining in 2021 (allegedly). 

Story is from the same 2020 Census info, which is being panned by many statisticians.  It was conducted during the height of the pandemic in the summer of 2020 and many neighborhoods were never properly canvassed.   Should have been postponed or done over,  because a lot of the numbers don't add up in other cities and states as well. 

[MLBrumby]

The Chamber needs to get ahead of that and call for a special census in a year. I'd expect an even greater participation rate in an "off" year with the proper promotion and a focused effort, but I really know little about that process. 

[GregH]

Would that even be worth doing? I'd imagine most "important" users of census data aren't going to look or in some cases even be allowed to look at data from a local one-off.

[BnaBreaker]

2 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

The Chamber needs to get ahead of that and call for a special census in a year. I'd expect an even greater participation rate in an "off" year with the proper promotion and a focused effort, but I really know little about that process. 

Some municipalities, Detroit being the largest among them to my knowledge so far, are leveling a full on challenge to the results of the 2020 Census.  Who knows though if that can actually accomplish anything tangible.  

[lmc123]

https://fox17.com/news/local/more-nashville-developers-speak-out-after-waiting-months-to-obtain-permit

Does anyone have an opinion if there is a “quid pro quo” with Metro regarding getting some public improvements in return for approving permits? 

If you are a developer/builder and have been waiting forever for a permit, Kylie Walker of Fox 17 is compiling a list. She is requesting proof including sent emails without a response, etc. Her email is: [email protected]. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Logan McCoy
Added more info!

[MLBrumby]

13 hours ago, BnaBreaker said:

Some municipalities, Detroit being the largest among them to my knowledge so far, are leveling a full on challenge to the results of the 2020 Census.  Who knows though if that can actually accomplish anything tangible.  

 

14 hours ago, GregH said:

Would that even be worth doing? I'd imagine most "important" users of census data aren't going to look or in some cases even be allowed to look at data from a local one-off.

There's federal grants, not to mention the foundational aspect of getting a correct count.  But who really believes Nashville (and over a dozen COVID "refuge" cities) actually lost population?  Admittedly, what I've seen is anectdotal, but that points to the homework the chamber/powers need to do. 

A mid census should be done if (and only if) the powers think there was an undercount at the decennial census, and even then, they should look very closely at USPS address changes, housing starts, and other factors that would indicate an undercount of 10-15,000.  I realize these estimates are for the 2020-21 timeframe, and that's a bit puzzling, but the metrics that led to the conclusion should be checked out.  Pandemic notwithstanding, there were a lot of in-moves to surrounding counties while Davidson shrunk. That my be the case, and a lot of preliminary work is advised, such as questions related to how the Dept. of Commerce got the 2021 figures. I certainly would not suggest the Chamber should support this unless the payout is much greater than the expense. And there's a strong possibility that COVID relief may pick up a sizeable portion of the expense. I don't know, but it seems like everyone is submitting for pandemic reimbursements for any reason. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by MLBrumby

[downtownresident]

14 hours ago, Logan McCoy said:

https://fox17.com/news/local/more-nashville-developers-speak-out-after-waiting-months-to-obtain-permit

Does anyone have an opinion if there is a “quid pro quo” with Metro regarding getting some public improvements in return for approving permits? 

If you are a developer/builder and have been waiting forever for a permit, Kylie Walker of Fox 17 is compiling a list. She is requesting proof including sent emails without a response, etc. Her email is: [email protected]. 

Is there a reason why you posted the exact same post across multiple threads? The problems with permits being delayed has been talked about / well documented for years, which is why the city is planning on hiring so many additional people in the Codes / Planning department as part of the upcoming budget (way too late, IMO). 

[lmc123]

18 minutes ago, downtownresident said:

Is there a reason why you posted the exact same post across multiple threads? The problems with permits being delayed has been talked about / well documented for years, which is why the city is planning on hiring so many additional people in the Codes / Planning department as part of the upcoming budget (way too late, IMO). 

Just for greater interest. I don't check every single thread on here so this would be for those who are interested in their Nashville neighborhood. In addition to more staff, metro would be wise to do a lean process flow chart so there isn't as much back and forth and lack of communication between metro departments. 

[Bos2Nash]

1 hour ago, Logan McCoy said:

Just for greater interest. I don't check every single thread on here so this would be for those who are interested in their Nashville neighborhood. In addition to more staff, metro would be wise to do a lean process flow chart so there isn't as much back and forth and lack of communication between metro departments. 

There is flow charts on the process of approvals for different things. There isn't a process other than "review" within codes, so there isnt a need for a process flow chart. As has been talked about prior, the process to build here in Nashville is actually remarkably easy when compared to other cities. It is already a lean process, the big problem is it is also a remarkably lean staff that just cant keep up.

The article that was referenced is very much lacking tangible information. The gentleman being interviewed is experiencing so much of the same issues that many other projects are facing. Many large scale projects have to to upgrade public infrastructure whether a "quid-pro-quo" is actually happening or not. The state shot down "impact fess" for development, but requiring the actual improvements aren't really outlawed it seems. Size of the developer always makes things a bit easier (capital helps all), so these smaller contractors/developers are feeling the pinch the worst when it comes to short staff. Pre-submittal meetings are always encouraged when I deal with planning/codes because you are able to get in front of the people who are reviewing these things and when they are already familiar with a project it can help the process tremendously.

I have hidden the duplicate posts because they are just that. No point in trying to have the same conversation in multiple threads.

[Rick Dalton]

18 minutes ago, Brichar4 said:

https://fox17.com/news/local/thousands-more-people-are-moving-out-of-nashville-than-moving-in-report-shows

Interesting article, curious how long this trend will last and the impact it may have on Development 

Doesn’t pass the smell test IMO. Tons of new residential building. Where are the empty houses?

[MLBrumby]

21 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

The Chamber needs to get ahead of that and call for a special census in a year. I'd expect an even greater participation rate in an "off" year with the proper promotion and a focused effort, but I really know little about that process. 

This is why the Mayor and Chamber should get ahead of this... when the media morons start chattering about Nashville losing population.   https://fox17.com/news/local/thousands-more-people-are-moving-out-of-nashville-than-moving-in-report-shows   This may be true, but it's unlikely given the special circumstances (e.g. office shutdowns) during the pandemic.  To the credit of this reporter, the Chamber of Commerce and Metro Codes were both contacted. They both sound like there's a little butt-covering going on, as if they may know there were some key element(s) left out of the estimates. Anyway, they're "looking into it" (a special census would be an answer here too).  Of course, an affordable housing advocate weighed in and a Metro school teacher says she cannot afford to buy a house. But inflow is NOT only people buying houses.  I have no idea how much average rents rose during the pandemic, especially with COVID rent aid being passed out like candy (not unique to Nashville).  Just a theory here:  I believe a Special Census in 2023 or 2024 could be quite successful if marketed to all sections of the county as "get counted" to see where your tax dollars should go.  I'd expect residents of the core and inner rings would be eager to respond with expectations that it could help get mass transit; and I'd expect residents in outlying areas would be more willing for the opposite reason (to show that they are a force in the county). 

 I confess that I'm more curious than adamant that Nashville didn't lose population, but it simply defies anecdotal evidence, as builders and banks watch this data very closely to determine when to finance additional houses/buildings. Also, we've been apprised here of the slowness of the Metro codes (permitting) process and one wonders if that data was simply dropped or incomplete in the estimates. 

We've had productive discussions here on the density of certain neighborhoods and such.  The general consensus is that there are more people living in the core and inner rings than in the past 50 years, especially true in formerly industrial areas. Given the thousands of jobs announced and ramping up since before the pandemic, those apartments and other new residential units downtown are still getting filled up and it's not mostly STRs. Then there's the speculation that college students weren't counted in many census tracts (I find this one a bit flimsy w.r.t. to a city the size of Nashville et.al.), but probably a factor for many smaller college towns.

[markhollin]

This week a friend asked if hotel construction was slowing down.  I did a quick summary of projects just in Davidson County:

24 hotels currently under construction 

35 more hotels proposed in the pipeline

The vast majority of all these are within the inner loop or Midtown.

[KJHburg]

this is interesting chart.  This is what the national median house price around $400,000  buys in 100 of the largest cities.  Nashville $400k buys much less than Charlotte or Raleigh or Atlanta  for example but more than Austin for example or the obvious Northeastern cities or west coast cities.   Find your city on the wheel by hovering over the spokes. 

https://www.point2homes.com/news/us-real-estate-news/how-much-space-400000-buys-in-100-largest-u-s-cities.html

[titanhog]

7 hours ago, KJHburg said:

this is interesting chart.  This is what the national median house price around $400,000  buys in 100 of the largest cities.  Nashville $400k buys much less than Charlotte or Raleigh or Atlanta  for example but more than Austin for example or the obvious Northeastern cities or west coast cities.   Find your city on the wheel by hovering over the spokes. 

https://www.point2homes.com/news/us-real-estate-news/how-much-space-400000-buys-in-100-largest-u-s-cities.html

More proof, IMO, that we must be behind in building enough homes for the masses.  The fact we’re that high up the list may be a reason that people who work in Nashville are having to move further outside the city to find an affordable home.

[Rick Dalton]

Taxes are very low here. Every dollar saved on tax goes to house price.

[PaulChinetti]

18 hours ago, titanhog said:

More proof, IMO, that we must be behind in building enough homes for the masses.  The fact we’re that high up the list may be a reason that people who work in Nashville are having to move further outside the city to find an affordable home.

We are so far behind I can’t even fathom how long it would be for Davidson county to catch up to the housing needs of its residents. 

Think of every SFH neighborhood in this area. They should all be the “missing middle housing”  instead it is what it is currently. Nashville could and should go the way of Minneapolis and ban SFH in most of this area . Alas I think the state would immediately pass a law to overturn that ban.

So we sit where we are now. Not enough affordable housing for anyone really.  

Edited May 9, 2022 by PaulChinetti

[andywildman]

13 hours ago, PaulChinetti said:

We are so far behind I can’t even fathom how long it would be for Davidson county to catch up to the housing needs of its residents. 

Think of every SFH neighborhood in this area. They should all be the “missing middle housing”  instead it is what it is currently. Nashville could and should go the way of Minneapolis and ban SFH in most of this area . Alas I think the state would immediately pass a law to overturn that ban.

So we sit where we are now. Not enough affordable housing for anyone really.  

TL;DR: We need more development types permitted; Nashville needs a cohesive, long-term strategy to accommodate this growth; we need to keep encouraging council members to support development.

I agree with the need for missing middle, and that there's no panacea. And it's difficult to thread the needle of Development within existing (plus feasible future) infrastructure and political will. Regardless, the toolbox is a little too limited right now:

• Downtown high-rises (include midtown here, largely rentals, but some condos at pretty exorbitant cost to cover rising construction expenses)
• 5-over-1 construction along the Pikes and in previously industrial zones (largely long-term rentals, see areas like Dickerson Pike and Wedgewood Houston)
• HPR (two-for-one lot splits) development (smallest step in incremental density, though there's still more meat on this bone in various parts of town)
• Greenfield detached house development in the edges (Century Farms, Bellevue, Joelton)

A lot of the townhome projects or mid-density multifamily development close to downtown ends up going to STR, which is probably the largest reason Nashville's unaffordability has passed Atlanta. Putting "no STR" stipulations in SP zoning is helpful, but not enough to resolve a lot of our larger zoning code limitations.

The bigger-picture issue here is the need for a broader vision, which includes:

• Rapid-transit right-of-way on pikes (no small feat given our state's antagonism)
• Transit oriented development and bonus density (permit 15-story towers outside of Midtown - in Inglewood and Madison and Antioch - like Green Hills has)
• Gradual density increases (double existing density in the entire UZO, eliminate RS zoning county-wide, turn Historic Overlays into Design Overlays)
• Form-based neighborhood commercial on all intersections across the Urban Services District
• A real bike lane network, both downtown and within the 440 / Briley loop... This is critical not just for bird scooters downtown but also enabling everything from biking to mobility scooters

I see councilmembers at varying levels of support for incremental density in Davidson county. O'Connell is obviously pro-development in his DTC district. Sledge in 17 has shown an interest in exploring more housing types (see tweet below). Parker in 5 & VanReece in 8 have generally demonstrated a "build more, but protect existing residents" attitude, which has struck a really nice balance in my opinion. Benedict in 7 (my CM) generally reflects her constituents' preferences, which is "keep density on the pikes and out of my neighborhood." I give that middling marks - it's better than some other council members who are more obviously in favor of development that is "not in my district".

[PaulChinetti]

41 minutes ago, andywildman said:

HPR (two-for-one lot splits) development (smallest step in incremental density, though there's still more meat on this bone in various parts of town)

To piggy back on this one specific commit from your whole reply which was great. 

I think there should also be a lot more zero lot line building going on in Nashville. 2 for 1s are great. Say in a hypothetical row of 4 lots. 2 for 1s could get your 8 houses. Zero lot line row houses (I think is the term), you could fit another house in between the current 6 feet of space (times 3 spaces). More infill basically instead of forcing developers to leave a measly 6 feet between houses which is not usable space at all. 

Sorry having trouble describing what I mean. 

[GregH]

My current missing middle obsession is that we end up with stuff like this in central locations (this is edgehill), a 2 for 1 with 2x3000 square foot $1m+ SFHs, yet parking minimums and other zoning prevent this lot from being 4 or even 6 spacious apartments or condos with more or less the same amount of built space. This feels like low-hanging fruit for housing affordability.

 

edit: these are more like 3500 sq ft including garage space I think.

Edited May 9, 2022 by GregH