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cajun

Hurricane season 2012

33 posts in this topic

Starting up early. 80% chance that the tropical storm in the Caribbean turns into to a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Hope Louisiana avoids the worst of it this year.

Gustav was no picnic. Where any of you in the Capitol area for Gustav? Rita? Katrina?

Edited by cajun

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I have started these threads in the past...but quit making them thinking no news is good news lol...and thankfully things have been calm the past 3 seasons...this season has been active so far....2 named storms in May was very unusual(Alberto & Beryl)...and Chris; a hurricane for short time in far north Atlantic yesterday.

The small circulation w/ the large disturbance is now in the southern Gulf just north of the Yucatan....One computer-model has the system moving north into east-central Gulf; then turn to NW as a Low-end tropical storm(Debby) by late Sunday evening just SE of the Miss .River Delta...but that's just one model...Still anybody's guess....the models have been erratic..we will watch thru weekend!

Yes indeed I remember Andrew in 92' where 71MPH wind gust were recorded in BR....We were silly back in the day jumping around outside in those high winds!

BR really dodged the bullet being on the westside Katrina...some strong winds and barely any rainfall....Rita was nasty slamming into SW LA....we got an insane 11.8" of rain here in EBR being in the NE quadrant...crazy how Katrina went eastern border of state & Rita went to the western border in about a month's time.

Gustav was epic! 91 MPH wind gust reported at Metro Airport...had to be around 100MPH in parts of BR....I was outside for a portion of that storm as well

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Gustave sucked, my work evacuated me. No power for a week in my area.

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I was here for Gustav. Had no power for 4 days and was pulled over for breaking curfew while trying to get to a friends. Never again will I be without a hurricane kit.

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I was here for Gustav, out of power for 4 days in Prairieville.

Katrina wasn't bad, out of power for maybe 10 hours and some ruined furniture and gazebo.

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It's officially "Debby"......The poorly organized system in the Gulf is now at 26.2 N & 87.6 W.... Max sustained winds 50MPH occuring well east of the center....Crawling North...Computer models still disagree...but the more accurate European model shows the storm eventually sliding west into Texas still several days away....other models have it headed toward the Florida panhandle

Hopefully Debby is a blessing in just a big rain maker for Louisiana....still too early

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD

TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE

PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

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205251R_sm.gif

It should be interesting to see if this reaches Hurricane strength or just a mid-range/strong tropical storm??

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Looks like it missed Louisiana. What is your threshold for staying/evacuating?

Speaking from experience....I don't think I would stay if I knew 80mph sustained winds or greater would occur at my house.

Louisiana building codes need to be a little tougher, IMO. We need to use more hurricane straps, heavier roofing materials, and higher rated windows. I haven't built in Louisiana in a while, but they seemed to be considering stronger codes for parts of the state about 5 years ago.

It is clearly a flood concern south of interstate 10, but Gustav, Rita, Andrew, and Katrina were very big wind events for the whole state as well and they were barely sustained category 1 strength by the time they got to the capitol area....and it was pretty hairy.

Edited by cajun

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Great question! When I heard preliminary reports on TV from NHC that BR could expect to see 100 mph wind gust...I wondered that myself...a good friend of mine from hurricane-prone Jamaica said "start worrying when you hear 120....roofs come off"...thankfully it never came to that....

Sustained winds recorded at the airport from Gustav were 61mph...with gust to 91....so Cajun... if the sustained wind was "80"mph...gust could be near 120...maybe the right decision would be to leave; Houma had 117mph gust with many roofs blown off & windows busted.....

They have many concrete/cynder-block homes in the Turks & Caicos...but will the roof stay on??

I have a friend who lives in Columbia MS in a large trailer asking me if he should "leave" for Katrina? Thankfully I told him "yes"...the eye passed very close up there; had wind gust of 111mph!

My bother & cousin went down to Diversion Canal(south Livingston) Saturday and were suprised to see the rise in water levels from a weak system like Debby...who has become Florida's version of Allison with INSANE rainfall totals! Thankfully the upper-level low to our west sheered the system with dry air choking it...keeping it away from us.

Edited by richyb83

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Richy....how about this nightmare scenario:

You are at home with your family. A storm is approaching and the tornado sirens are screaming. You turn on the television, and the news details of a hook echo that seems to be moving in your direction. It is expected to be an EF 4 or EF 5 wedge tornado (similar to Joplin). It's 5 minutes away. You have no basement.

Are you any less safe if you jump in the car and attempt to our run it? Do you chance it under the stairs? Hide in the bathroom?

120mph winds can take a normal residential roof off. 250+mph winds for several minutes would leave nothing but the slab. Large commercial buildings would be destroyed.

I have trouble with this scenario. At some point your chances of survival are next to nothing regardless of if you are outdoors or indoors. At which point is mobility giving an advantage to trying to get out of it's path?

Edited by cajun

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An ATV would come in handy at that point.

Definitely if you are in a rural area. Or a nearby parking deck or hospital if you are't..some sort of large reinforced concrete building. Maybe a mall or fire station.

Parking deck could actually channel more wind and act as a wind tunnel.

Tough scenario. Seems like it would depend on how easy it was to move east or south....road network, potential shelters, etc.

Edited by cajun

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Wow Cajun! That's a nightmare scenario...Tough answer! Dependend on the width of the tornado/and speed it's moving...might take my chances in the car moving the opposite direction of it's path....being inside a moderate damged area sure beats the catastrophic-zone of the path ...being the weather watcher I am...would have been in "Alert Mode" when they issue Watches earlier in the day; chance favors the prepared mind. This particular tornado was moving 20-25mph

But a 250mph wind would only have to blast thru in seconds(would not even take srveral minutes) to flatten everything into slabs.

Here is the Joplin tornado path;...by looking at this map getting out of the red"(catastrophic) area is more "doable" maybe a 1/4 to 1/2 mile...the moderate zone (3/4 to 1 mile) may have been more difficult to escape...but chances of survival better

http://en.wikipedia....tornado-map.jpg

http://www.crh.noaa....011may22_survey

Thankfully we are not in Tornado Alley where F4/F5's are more common....down here closer to the Gulf the tornados tend to be not that strong...

Of course there was hurricane Camille my Dad told me about before I was born....Wind gust over 200+mph;saw a 213...but at least you have day(s) or at least hours to prepare.

Edited by richyb83

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Exactly....but I'm not sure what my threshold for saying or chancing it outside would be or if accurate information on tornado paths and wind speeds would be available for a very quick decision.

And obviously if I were at work, I'd just get away from the windows. I work in a 15 story building. Being at home or a restaurant is a different story.

The problem with evacuating by car is that you have to not only get out of the heavy damage path, but the moderate damage path as well...where if the tornado tracks a little in either direction and your house gets the moderate damage path, then you were better off staying at home.

As big as Joplin was, the heavy damage path was only about 1/4th a mile wide.

Baton Rouge doesn't get tornadoes like that, but central Mississippi and everything north does. Anyone ever notice that wide damage path that crosses I-55 north of Jackson? That was from the Yazoo City twister that moved from Louisiana to nearly Alabama. It cross the freeway when it was about a mile wide, judging by my odometer reading of the damage path.

Edited by cajun

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So far...so good for Louisiana & the Gulf Coast...been quiet eventhough this is the 2nd Most Active Hurricane Season to date as the "H" storm (Helene) being named yesterday in the SW Gulf just off coast and is now already inland over Mexico.

*Gordon is now a hurricane out in the far Atlantic; flexing it's muscles with 110mph winds headed in the opposite direction toward Spain...it should weaken significantly before making landfall

*Florence was weak & on life support much of it's duration fizzling out in the Atlantic

*Ernesto stayed far enough south crossing the Yucatan & Mexico before becoming Hector in the Pacific

This is the Cape Verde season when things get interesting with all the tropical waves coming off of Africa...a lot of dry Sahara Desert air has been hindering these systems from forming quicker....Invest #94(strong tropical wave) could be one to watch in another week...Computer Models have this becoming "Isaac"..could be a player for the U.S. in another 8-10 days...another impressive wave is behind it.

Edited by richyb83

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....Invest #94(strong tropical wave) could be one to watch in another week...Computer Models have this becoming "Isaac"..could be a player for the U.S. in another 8-10 days...

A week later...all eyes on Isaac...still a tropical storm; Isaac is expected to intensify into a hurricane entering the SE Gulf of Mexico later tonight...and landfall late Tuesday as a possible Cat#2 around Destin FL....the western-edge of the cone does have the tip of the Miss River Delta in SE La/St.Bernard Parish just east of NOLA...if he stays east of Mobile things should hopefully be fine for Louisiana...however not all the computer models agree..icluding the GFS that has Louisiana in it's cross-hairs

032340W5_NL_sm.gif

Tropical Storm Joyce already fizzled out in the Atlantic...another strong wave near Cape Verde Islands could develop in the next few days

Edited by richyb83

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Don't like the most recent track that has shifted Isaac west(see above map)...now headed toward Biloxi...NOLA under a hurricane watch.

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Yeah, expected to come on shore over Mississippi as a strong 2, borderline 3.

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It's Louisiana. Don't expect to find beer, gas, ammo, or propane at any store south of I-10/12 the next few days. It's definately a hurricane party. Louisiana is prepared in more ways than one.

Edited by cajun

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Not sure how long we keep power here..making this post now. Hoping for the best for everybody

Isaac has been interesting to say the least; dry-air kept in check past few days; but flexing his muscles this afternoon finally becoming hurricane....earlier making a temporary landfall on the tip of the Miss River Delta now moving/wobbling west(a SW jog) over open water again...barely moving...maintaining intensity. Grand Isle is getting hammered; as is NOLA area.

Don't like this track as it's center projected to come near(just west) BR as a slow moving tropical storm tommorrow at 1:00PM.....duration of wind & rain

Hurricane Isaac Tracking Map

at201209.gif

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Amazingly we still have power. It's gone up and down a few times.

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Me too all2neat...was not expecting power when i got up this morning.

We have had gust in the 45-55mph range....

The experts did not see Isaac stalling for hours...barely moving again; large eye over Houma...feel bad for Plaquemines parish; Grand Isle & NOLA area taking a pounding...heard a 93mph gust around the skyscrapers of the CBD...

This things needs to hurry up and get out of here!

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