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accatt2204

Hurricanes

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Tropical Storm Hermine now forms...projected path takes it close to eastern long island. Winds are now 40mph probably will strengthen to 50mph. Not much danger with this. But Francis well have to watch. Right now they have it going near central Florida. Right near me!

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We're supposed to get Gastone and Hermine remnants tomorrow wrapped up in a cold front moving in from the Great Lakes. It's a bit like the scenario that led to the Perfect Storm, but we don't expect anything nearly that bad. Just heavy rain and stiff gusts. We might go under a gale warning tomorrow.

Charlie's remnants put us under a Tropical Storm warning when it came through, but it weakened a lot faster than expected and really we only saw a couple hours of heavy rain.

It does seem that we may be moving into an Atlantic pattern. Historically the tropics have affected the east coast periodically in about decade long stretches. The last long stretch we had was in the 40's and 50's. We've only had one really large hurricane since 1955, that was Hurricane Bob in 1991.

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Hermine.jpg

We're right on the extreme western edge of Hermine's projected path for tonight. It's expected to head out east of the Cape and weaken, could be a Tropical Depression as it passes east of Nantucket. Looks like we dodged another bullet.

Francis of course is far enough out that it could be anyone's problem by the end of the week. Guess we're not in the clear yet.

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I guess i should of gotten around to building my hurricane shutters this weekend instead of working in the yard.

It's still early, but anybody from Miami to NC, needs to start getting ready now.

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looks like the storm is heading west and has increased in speed. Still 120mph, but will probaby strengthen in 72 hours to about 135mph. It looks similiar to Hurricane Floyds path in 1999.

301453.gif

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if you look above at the path chart the latest track takes it near vero beach, though its too early to tell the NWS has it with 140mph sustained winds at time of impact.

Why do hurricanes choose weekends to hit?

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WTNT41 KNHC 310839

TCDAT1

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FRANCES IS COMPLETING A

CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER

REPORTS A 30-40 NM DIAMETER OUTER EYEWALL WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL

WINDS OF 121 KT AT 700 MB...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949

MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THE EARLIER INNER

EYEWALL ARE STILL PRESENT. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE

MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOWS A WIND

MAXIMA OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE

OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS

ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MAJOR

IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE FRANCES WILL END UP. DATA FROM THE RECENT

SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION HAD SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS ON THE

DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A LEFT OUTLIER MOST OF

THE TIME...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A RIGHT

OUTLIER...MOVING FRANCES NORTHWARD ALONG 77-78W AFTER 72 HR. THE

NOGAPS...WHICH HAS BEEN A RIGHT OUTLIER...IS NOW A LEFT OUTLIER

CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND UKMET

HAVE BOTH SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE

LARGE CHANGES IN JUST ONE CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT

CHANGE MUCH AT ALL...BASICALLY BEING AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS

PACKAGE. IT IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE UP TO 72 HR

AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE THEREAFTER.

WHEN THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS FINALLY DONE...FRANCES SHOULD

STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IT WOULD NOT

BE A SURPRISE TO SEE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS...THE SHIPS...

GFDL...AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE

AFTER ABOUT 48 HR. ALSO...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF OTHER

CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES THAT CANNOT CURRENTLY BE FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

this is the NWS discussion at 5:00am

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jeeze, i only went through HEAVY rain in seattle, and im about to go through gigantic blizzards in russia. but a hurricane? never, not even a tornado. well, i'm glad i didn't go to florida for a couple months instead of going straight to russia.

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:o 000

WTNT31 KNHC 312044

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 28

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS WITH 140 MPH

WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA

AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH

INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO

PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE

WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...

CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST.

JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FRANCES HAS BEEN TRACKED WITH A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE

IMAGES...AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE

DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5

NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM... NORTH

OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE FORWARD SPEED OF HURRICANE FRANCES HAS INCREASED AND THE

HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A

TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL

DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE

HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS

939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE STILL

POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN

ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES TODAY.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF

HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...20.5 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM

AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

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This situation is dangerous. If you are in florida from Homestead to Fernandina Beach, you need to prepare now. And if a warning is issued for your area, head warnings and LEAVE! I remember Hurricane Andrew in 1992 at my brothers house in Coral Gables. It is flat out scary. Have penty of water, food, and other important items on hand. Think ahead now. You probably know the drill.

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Evacuations have been ordered for certain coastal areas. martin county is planning for a 4,000 people evacuation.Also the Kennedy space center will close tommorow.Palm Beach County Orders evacuation of 300,000 coastal residents.

Central Florida schools:

Lake County: Closed Friday

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All of the schools in Jacksonville will now be closed on Friday. I'm pretty sure we'll get the order to evacuate Jax Beach, sometime tomorrow. I'm packing my bags and heading to either Memphis or Norfolk, VA for the weekend. I'd like to enjoy my extended weekend instead of riding out a cat. 4 or 5 storm.

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I'm packing my bags and heading to either Memphis or Norfolk, VA for the weekend.

Well if you have a choice, I'd suggest Memphis. Seems likely now that the remnants of the storm will steer up the coast after making landfall. If Gaston is any indication, Norfolk might not be safe.

Could it be coming on a worse weekend? Not that there is ever a good time for a category 4/5 storm. I remember in the mid 90s we had a category 1 or 2 pass a good distance off the coast of Cape Cod on Labour Day Weekend. The authorities told people to stay put, but close to a million tourists decided to try to leave over the only 2 bridges. There was a 60 mile backup and no way for emergency vehicles to get up and down the Cape. It was madness.

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All of the schools in Jacksonville will now be closed on Friday. I'm pretty sure we'll get the order to evacuate Jax Beach, sometime tomorrow. I'm packing my bags and heading to either Memphis or Norfolk, VA for the weekend. I'd like to enjoy my extended weekend instead of riding out a cat. 4 or 5 storm.

Say goodbye to our chance to upset the two-time defending state champs, the Trinity Christian Conquerers. I upsets me but I do miss Thursday and Friday at school.

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