2003 American Community Survey

[ShowMeKC]

I was just looking at the American Factfinder at the 2000 information for KC. I wanted to see the amount of vacant housing units. I saw that 18,000 were vacant in 2000. So I thought, hey, over 12,000 units were completed from 2000-2004. So that means at least a gain of 25,000 people if not more.

Then I saw the 2003 tab. I wanted to see what they estimated for 2003 and the flawed estimates that were released earlier that caused so much controversy.

I looked under Total Population, and low and behold, it was much higher than what they'd originally estimated. For Kansas City, they had estimated a -100 population loss. However with this new estimate, they predicted a gain of nearly 11,000 people from 2000-2003 in Kansas City, MO. According to their American Community Survey, our population went from 441,545 in 2000 to 452,496 in 2003.

Which puts us a lot closer to my estimate of 455k-460k in Jan. 2005.

Check and see if they revised your population estimates for your city.

[urbanguy]

Well the ACS is a different estimate than the regular census estimate cause it does not include people living in dorms, institutions, etc which are normally included in like the 10 year census and yearly estimates.

[ShowMeKC]

Yea, but look at our population by just counting the people who don't live in those settings.

452,496

I looked at the number of housing units built since then, they didn't count the downtown lofts built (since 9,000 housing permits were issued from '00 to '03 and about 1,500 downtown lofts were completed from '00 to '03, but it only shows a gain of 9000)

That should at the least be a minimum. But anyhow, this estimate is a heck of a lot closer than their other one.

[sleepy]

I wouldn't put much faith in the ACS survey either for population purposes. I believe it's primary purpose is to get some estimates for family size, income, education, etc. They only send it out to something like 600,000 people nationally each year.

For example, the ACS lists Kansas City's estimated high-low population range as 434,624 to 470,368.

[ShowMeKC]

there isn't anything wrong with that High-Low range.

There isn't any way that we still have 440,000 people, it's just plain impossible.

[urbanguy]

^Yeah i wouldnt take their estimates too seriously mainly because its a small random sampling we should have a clearer picture in 2010 of actual growth and right now i really think all major cities are growing especially with the revival of downtowns and loft convertions and well the newer generation moving downtown but of course its not the case everywhere but its a trend thats taking off all over the country.