Why Does Major League Baseball Snub the SE?

[urban designer]

I saw where the determination of baseball markets includes other metros...like you pointed out, Atlanta's "market" includes metro hundreds of miles away like Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham. That's garbage, unless of course, you turn that logic on it's head and say, what's the market between Greenville-Spartanbur, s. CAROLINA and Raleigh-Durham, N. CAROLINA? That logic gives you one of the biggest" markets (using MLB logic) in the country.

Finally, DonPablo...Charlotte already fills Ericsson Stadium (with 74,000 seats) is sold out for Panthers' games. Raleigh fills the Centura Arena (26K) for Hurricanes' games. So, your point, "when these markets can prove that they can fill 50,000 seats" is moot and exemplifies this country's pitiful lack of knowledge (and prejudice) about the Carolinas.

[turlough]

Finally, DonPablo...Charlotte already fills Ericsson Stadium (with 74,000 seats) is sold out for Panthers' games.

That's because we started to win some for a change

[Twin Cities]

What the hell are you talking about? You can't compare the NFL to MLB! How many home games do the Panthers have? How many does a major league baseball team have? I would hope that the Panthers can sell out 8 home games which they weren't doing last season. Comparing that to around 80 home games for a MLB team is pointless. Also, Raleigh does not fill it's arena. As a matter of fact, the team averaged 15,682 per game last year which was 83.7%. Raleigh and the fans there have proven to be wagon jumpers. Don't be surprised to see the team gone within 3-5 years.

[Twin Cities]

Sorry about the spelling errors.

[urban designer]

Also, Raleigh does not fill it's arena. As a matter of fact, the team averaged 15,682 per game last year which was 83.7%. Raleigh and the fans there have proven to be wagon jumpers. Don't be surprised to see the team gone within 3-5 years.

....like the Twins threatened to do a few years ago?

[Twin Cities]

Touche?? Not quite. Urban Designer you obviously don't know or understand what is going on. Twins talked about leaving becuase they wanted a new stadium. Then it was Bud Selig who was threatening to contract them, but either one is going to happen. The problem with the Hurricanes isn't their arena situation. Raleigh will lose it's hockey team before the Twins fold or leave the the state.

[Guest donaltopablo]

I agree Twin Cities.

Urban, you fail to realize a few things:

First, metros like Atlanta and Miami really have 4.5 million+ people. Second, even though areas like Charlotte are in the TV market, they are generally not in an attendance market. There are some people willing to travel to watch a game, but those people generally do not fill a stadium week after week.

Second, as a mentioned above, there is a big difference between winning (or almost winning) a couple of years, and keeping the team together over time, or better yet, actually making a profit. As I went to lengths to point out, there are team of over achievers, and they add exictment, but small market teams generally have trouble keeping them together for an extended period of time.

Third, NFL and MLB are not in the same category in terms of fan numbers. Football needs to fill a stadium for 10 games a year (including preseason), vs. 80 for baseball. Baseball relies on mid week games in order to fit that many games in, football has the advantage of almost entirely weekend games to draw it's audience from. If a football team draws more than a million people a season, it's a acccomplishment (most pull 500-700K a year), vs. 2 million or so just to be profitable in baseball.

[Guest donaltopablo]

donaltopablo, how could Charlotte be in Atlanta's TV market?

With no baseball, in Charlotte, you would be within "regional" interest range. Your not in Atlanta's true TV market, but your in Atlanta's baseball market.

Now if MLB did locate in Greensboro, there would easily be 5 million people living within driving distance of a game. Charlotte is 90 miles from Greensboro and RDU maybe 75.

But again, people in Charlotte and RDU are not as likely to become season ticket holders, or mid week game watchers, due to distance. Sure it's close enough to drive to see a few games, even one a week, but not for the day in, day out kind of support baseball needs.

[urban designer]

OK, so Atlanta is a big city with 4.5 million people. What you failed to understand apparently, was the original question wasn't about whose ###### is bigger it was a question about MLB "snubbing" the Southeast. Your arguments about TV markets still do not make any sense to me. Here is a list of the 50 largest TV markets...

1 New York 7,376,330 6.804

2 Los Angeles 5,402,260 4.983

3 Chicago 3,399,460 3.136

4 Philadelphia 2,874,330 2.651

5 San Francisco-Oak-San Jose 2,440,920 2.252

6 Boston (Manchester) 2,391,830 2.206

7 Dallas-Ft. Worth 2,255,970 2.081

8 Washington, DC (Hagrstwn) 2,224,070 2.052

9 Atlanta 2,035,060 1.877

10 Detroit 1,923,230 1.774

11 Houston 1,848,770 1.705

12 Seattle-Tacoma 1,685,480 1.555

13 Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) 1,644,270 1.517

14 Minneapolis-St. Paul 1,635,650 1.509

15 Phoenix 1,561,760 1.441

16 Cleveland-Akron (Canton) 1,542,970 1.423

17 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale 1,510,740 1.394

18 Denver 1,399,100 1.291

19 Sacramnto-Stktn-Modesto 1,278,430 1.179

20 Orlando-Daytona Bch-Melbrn 1,263,900 1.166

21 St. Louis 1,202,170 1.109

22 Pittsburgh 1,175,410 1.084

23 Baltimore 1,083,030 0.999

24 Portland, OR 1,073,210 0.990

25 Indianapolis 1,038,370 0.958

26 San Diego 1,029,210 0.949

27 Hartford & New Haven 1,001,320 0.924

28 Charlotte 986,830 0.910

29 Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle) 947,750 0.874

30 Nashville 904,380 0.834

31 Kansas City 875,090 0.807

32 Cincinnati 872,330 0.805

33 Milwaukee 871,490 0.804

34 Columbus, OH 854,040 0.788

35 Greenvll-Spart-Ashevll-And 806,930 0.744

36 Salt Lake City 786,030 0.725

37 San Antonio 736,240 0.679

38 Grand Rapids-Kalmzoo-B.Crk 724,290 0.668

39 West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce 709,290 0.654

40 Birmingham (Ann and Tusc) 697,570 0.643

41 Norfolk-Portsmth-Newpt Nws 693,660 0.640

42 New Orleans 665,190 0.614

43 Memphis 662,280 0.611

44 Buffalo 647,920 0.598

45 Oklahoma City 647,390 0.597

46 Greensboro-H.Point-W.Salem 645,430 0.595

47 Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York 637,240 0.588

48 Providence-New Bedford 635,610 0.586

49 Albuquerque-Santa Fe 633,500 0.584

50 Louisville 624,470 0.576

Please note that 3 of the top 50 are in NC (located within a crescent 150 miles long). My sense is that Carolina residents are NOT "inclined" to be included in Atlanta's "Sphere of Influence" any more than Boston is inclined to be included in New York City's.

You say that Portland, OR is more likely to get an MLB team the Carolina market BUT, and like, Atlanta there isn't another TV market in the top 50 within 100 miles of Atlanta or Portland or MSP so these cities essentially stand on their own.

Admittedly, Atlanta's TV market is huge, but there are at least 2 MLB team cities that are smaller than RDU OR CLT (Milwaukee and Kansas City).

Again, you look at this list and you look at a map and see a whole lot of cities in the SE in the top 50 markets and only 1 of them has a MLB team. Finally, the argument that metro size is important, I couldn't agree more. Again, look at the list. Denver, Atlanta, and MSP are big ~ but isolated cities ~ the edge between what is within MSP's region (or the Denver region) is much cleaner. The Carolina's are unique in the sense that they are not dominated by one large metro (like GA, MN, MA, MD, CO, AZ, OR, WA....) Given the relatively small geographic size of area where the Carolina's metros are located (the aforementioned "Crescent") what people (like Twins and DonPablo) who live in one metro states do not recognize that the regions with multiple metros of 1 million+ are ill-defined because of their close proximity and so, the geographic definition of the metro is amorphous. For example, from where I live in the Charlotte metro I could just as easily commute to Charlotte OR GSO. I listen to GSO stations.

The point? Charlotte and GSO, or GSO and RDU should not be considered isolated metros (like Atlanta, MSP, Denver, etc) because these metro clearly do not function or exist in even remotely similiar contexts. I argue that they are not given a second glance b/c one, there's an inherent prejudice against the South or two, MLB and people like Twin Cities and DonPablo don't understand how metropolitan regions function beyond what they see in census lists.

Of course, there is a question about how interested Carolinians are in baseball. I would invite you to look at the attendance records for our MINOR league teams (Durham Bulls, etc.) and see what I see, a market ignored by MLB.

[Guest donaltopablo]

What you failed to understand apparently, was the original question wasn't about whose ###### is bigger it was a question about MLB "snubbing" the Southeast. Your arguments about TV markets still do not make any sense to me. Here is a list of the 50 largest TV markets...

I'll try this one more time: normal "TV" markets don't always qualify for sports teams because interest in sports teams tend to extend beyond the normal TV market boundaries. TV Market is defined by how many people local television reach. However, in sports, draw to games can extend outside of the local TV market because there is no local team in neighboring TV markets.

For example, Falcons game on local on Fox. In Atlanta, obviously, we get the falcons game on local broadcast. Jump to Birmingham. No local team, so the network execs, when deciding which of the 7 or 8 games playing in that time slot, have to decide which game to show Birmingham. Chances are, if the Falcons are playing, Birmingham is going to get a Falcons broadcast. Why? Because Birmingham is within the regional interest of the Falcons i.e. geographically close enough to assume a resonable fan base. Birmingham is not in Atlanta's true TV market, but when it comes to sports, because of the regional relationship, the Falcons TV market, now grows to Atlantas and Birminghams.

Carolinas have a population base as big as several cities that have baseball teams. But as I explained above, that does not mean that there is enough economical interest in bringing a team to NC just yet. Smaller market teams, again as mentioned, can be successful on the playing field, but many are struggling. In addition, start up costs are higher for teams and unlike the Twins and KC, which already have a built fan base, Carolinas do not. In the 70s, when television was not as big as it is today, going to a baseball game was a far more common event, which means smaller cities had an easier time supporting teams. This is not the case today, teams must compete for attendance with a variety of factors, including cost and the fact that it is much cheaper and easier for fans to watch on TV than attend in person.

I'm not trying to say that Carolina wouldn't be success with a team, it probably would be. However, you must understand what I am trying to point out is that, from a business standpoint taking in all factors (other than raw population and who is within 1 1/2 drive, is that the Carolinas, along with many other places, probably do not have the economic factors yet to support a MLB team. Rather than feeling snuffed by MLB, it's far more likely that the simply do not feel they are ready to produce a successful, profitable team just yet.

[urban designer]

Yeah, but Falcons aren't going to get the same interest because there is a local NFL team in Carolinas. Falcons would not be in the "regional interest" for Charlotte because you have a team.

..and if there's any "support" here for the Braves it would also disappear.

[urban designer]

I'll try this one more time: normal "TV" markets don't always qualify for sports teams because interest in sports teams tend to extend beyond the normal TV market boundaries. TV Market is defined by how many people local television reach. However, in sports, draw to games can extend outside of the local TV market because there is no local team in neighboring TV markets.

What's your point? The Carolinas are included in Atlanta's "market" b/c there's no team here. No kidding. MY point is there are enough reasons to have a team in the Carolinas based upon a number of factors including the fact that our TV markets ("how many people local television reach") are not as well defined as yours because our major (1,000,000+) overlap.

[urban designer]

Carolinas have a population base as big as several cities that have baseball teams. But as I explained above, that does not mean that there is enough economical interest in bringing a team to NC just yet.

How do you know this, oh great one?

[urban designer]

...unlike the Twins and KC, which already have a built fan base, Carolinas do not.  AND

...from a business standpoint taking in all factors (other than raw population and who is within 1 1/2 drive, is that the Carolinas, along with many other places, probably do not have the economic factors yet to support a MLB team.

...clearly you have much knowledge about this subject, so tell me:

1. How does a place create a fan base for a team that doesn't exist?

2. Within a 1.5 hour drive?! You are kidding right? Do you have any idea how many people live within a 1.5 hour drive of Charlotte??!?!

3. "Economic" factors? What are talking about? North Carolina's GSP is $280billion. By comparison, Georgia's is $290b, MA is $287b, CA is $1.4trillion. Other economic "powerhouses" with MLB = MN $188b, CO $173b, AZ $160b, WA $202b, WI $177b, MO (with two teams...) $181b. Recall, NC's is $280b

4. And, finally how does one NOT take into consider the population and economic growth of a place? Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte and NC in general are among the fastest growing states and projected to continue to grow rapidly for the next 25 years. The fan base would only grow...

[Guest donaltopablo]

...clearly you have much knowledge about this subject, so tell me:

Nope, just common sense.

1. How does a place create a fan base for a team that doesn't exist?

It doesn't, that's the point though. There is no pre existing fan base to guarantee the success of a team year after year. Smaller population (again, since this is part of my point that seems to be missed: people 1 1/2 away don't generally buy season tickets or purchase individual tickets to mid week games, something that is KEY for the success of a baseball team, they need to be 30-45 minutes away) make this more difficult. This is more difficult in the modern area based on the fact that drawing fans to a stadium is more difficult than it was even 20-30 years ago when TV was less of a factor. Again, smaller populations within a 30-45 minute drive make this more difficult because your pool of potential, regular ticket holders is even smaller.

2. Within a 1.5 hour drive?! You are kidding right? Do you have any idea how many people live within a 1.5 hour drive of Charlotte??!?!

Please re-read my comment, I said OTHER than people living an 1 1/2 from Charlotte (which I went to great lengths to point out that people not within 30-45 minutes top do not generally make up the majority of the paying attendance fan base to purchase season tickets or make midweek games, etc. I already mentioned I understand that Carolinas have a significant population as a whole.

3. "Economic" factors? What are talking about? North Carolina's GSP is $280billion. By comparison, Georgia's is $290b, MA is $287b, CA is $1.4trillion. Other economic "powerhouses" with MLB = MN $188b, CO $173b, AZ $160b, WA $202b, WI $177b, MO (with two teams...) $181b. Recall, NC's is $280b

Thanks for the stats. That has nothing to do with baseball. TV markets and GDP does not guarantee a successful, profitable baseball team. Fans with time and income to spend on tickets do.

. And, finally how does one NOT take into consider the population and economic growth of a place? Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte and NC in general are among the fastest growing states and projected to continue to grow rapidly for the next 25 years. The fan base would only grow...

It is important to take those factors into account.

Carolinas have a population base as big as several cities that have baseball teams. But as I explained above, that does not mean that there is enough economical interest in bringing a team to NC just yet.

How do you know this, oh great one?

There is no team there

Again, I'm not trying to argue with you, so much as trying to illustrate that there is a lot more to acquiring a baseball team and the economics around it than simply population within a region.

..and if there's any "support" here for the Braves it would also disappear.

Absolutely it would, just like Charlotte use to get Falcons football games in the early 90s, where now they hear almost nothing about them.

What's your point? The Carolinas are included in Atlanta's "market" b/c there's no team here. No kidding. MY point is there are enough reasons to have a team in the Carolinas based upon a number of factors including the fact that our TV markets ("how many people local television reach") are not as well defined as yours because our major (1,000,000+) overlap.

And I'm saying it's borderline by attempting to point out that all 3 of the Carolina cities do not have the sigificant population base within a more realistic 30 minutes drive that is necessary to make baseball successful (vs. other sports).

Again, as I mentioned above, I'm not saying that Carolina couldn't support a team, I'm saying it's not guaranteed enough to draw a team. There is a seperate politics and economics to supporting a baseball team that isn't just like opening a neigborhood grocery store, or even supporting a football team. This is what I am trying to illustrate, not trying to place negatives on Charlotte. It's just the economics and politics of baseball are extremely unique, and have changed dramatically even in the last 15-20 years.

So far, all you have shown is your ability to mock my comments and post population, GDP, and TV market stats. You mock my knowledge on the subject, I'm not an expert and no I don't own a franchise, but I am at least trying to approach the subject base on some knowledge of how sports markets and professional league economics work, rather than attempting to find some flaw in MLB's treatment of southern cities based on the fact that NC cities are close to the population levels of other (and mostly struggling) MLB teams in the midwest and the north, without any understanding of how those teams are struggling, why those cities got teams to begin with, or how baseball has obviously changed over the last couple of decades.

90% of the information I discussed can easily be found by reading any article from any sporting news source over the last 10 years - from struggling small market teams and their difficult being profitable while fielding consistant winning teams, to difficulties with expansion, to how the majority of baseball viewship has shifted heavily from going to a stadium and watching a game to watching it on TV, and the issues that creates with revenues. This is not some detailed expert information I have here, much of this news was even available from mainstream news outlets such as local newspapers and CNN.

[urban designer]

...since the whole point here is debate one another I would expect that one can respect the information and points being made. So, I merely question your contentions and suggest that Sports Illustrator articles about struggling teams in other markets can not necessarily be applied elsewhere.

I did not originally begin this argument by focusing on population and TV markets. You and Twins brought that up. They are excellent reasons for marking the potential for a team in this or that location. I am trying to point out the flaws in your arguments and you reply as though I'm dense and uneducated.

For example, you say that economics is not about GSP (gross state product) vs. GDP (gross domestic product is a national figure). Why isn't this an accurate measure? OK, so now it income.

Population within 30- 45 minute drive? Again, based upon this measure who the heck can drive ANYWHERE in Atlanta in 30 - 45 mintues? Do 4.5 million people really live within a 35 minute drive of the stadium? When? At 2:00 a.m.?

I'm not mocking you...I'm pressing you to refine your argument just as I do.

I respect our differences.

[Guest donaltopablo]

GSP not GDP, typo on my part. However, my point is that you fail to apply these basic stats to the individual requirements of a sucessful baseball team.

Yes, 30-45 minute drive. During mid day, and weekends, with mass transit, it is very realistic for the inner core counties to get to the stadium within that time frame. Evening games take a little longer, but people in Atlanta are going to have a higher tolerance for time to get to a game than someone who is not use to excessive drive times.

You have yet to refine your discussion points to anything beyond quoting some stats, and have yet to adapt them to baseball. Yes, the information contained in many of those news articles are extremely valid for the discussion at hand, again because they help to illustrate the obvious economics and politics of baseball.

The topic at hand is why does major league baseball snub the se, I'm contending it does not, that SE has the same challenges to attracting a MLB team that any city in the country would have given the same economic and political conditions of the area attempting to attract the team and the sport as a whole has.

Again, my arguing point with everything you have said is I believe you are failing to apply those stats and information to the specifics regarding maintaining and supporting a MLB team.

[urban designer]

You have yet to refine your discussion points to anything beyond quoting some stats, and have yet to adapt them to baseball.

"obvious economics" and "politics" of baseball.

Since you continue to respond to me as though I were an idiot, please define "obvious economics" and "politics" of baseball.

"You have yet to refine your discussion points to anything beyond quoting some stats, and have yet to adapt them to baseball." I have given you real-life examples of the frailty and flaws inherent in the data YOU'VE used.

[Guest donaltopablo]

LOL! Your funny. Your not an idiot, you just haven't bothered to read anything I've said.

I haven't quoted any data, so how did you find flaws in it? I'm only talking about applying common sense and common knowledge of what other teams, markets, and baseball as a whole has admitted through common news resources there struggles have been. So you couldn't have found flaws in my data, I didn't have any. And you didn't call me out for not having data, nor have I ever tried to argue with your data, only how that data is applied to the discussion at hand.

Do you want me to recite all of the discussions about how baseball draws fans, and the impact of TV, fan base to ensure a sucessful team, difficulty of small market teams to maintain a strong team for a consistant period?

Feed on that, then I'll tell how the Carolinas will be the obvious choice for a team in the expansion by comparing it to a recent success with another SE city with a large potential television market and a large population base surrounding the metro area. What's the difference? They were 15 years or so ahead of Charlotte in terms of raw population numbers and had a high population of people living nearby with money that could help support the team. My point - Charlotte hasn't been slighted (nor has the rest of the SE), it's just takes some time to develop where baseball and business will take the risk. And they have in other, similar situations, in the SE. Carolinas just needed these last 10 years (and probably 5 more) til baseball will be ready to serious consider the risk of adding a team.

Another thing I seriously don't know, has anyone from the Carolinas actually made a bid to attract a team?

[urban designer]

Why thank you. I can sleep tonight knowing you don't think I'm an idiot.

The data I refer to is the TV market size and population figures you brought up. You referenced economic (another data rich subject) but still haven't told how the economic (income, or otherwise) of the Carolinas can't support a team.

On the surface, I agree with you about many of these issues. The discussion in Charlotte about pursuing another major league team has centered around attracting corporate support for another team and of cuorse, filling seats. The general sense is that we settle in with the Bobcats and Panthers and in about 5 - 10 years pursue MLB.

[Guest donaltopablo]

The general sense is that we settle in with the Bobcats and Panthers and in about 5 - 10 years pursue MLB.

I'm certain in 5-10 years MLB will find it very feasiable to support a MLB team. With the right owner and selling points behind it, I believe they will acquire a team.

[Guest donaltopablo]

Why thank you. I can sleep tonight knowing you don't think I'm an idiot.

Your welcome. Maybe I have a career in helping people with sleeping problems

[urban designer]

It would a vicious rivalry! Maybe, one day, as contentious as Boston - New York and Philadelphia

[Guest donaltopablo]

It would a vicious rivalry! Maybe, one day, as contentious as Boston - New York and Philadelphia

Get a little TB - Atlanta - Carolina rivalry goin?! Those are the best games.

[urban designer]

We should figure out a way to word that post...

Compare B - NY - P to a future TB - A - C or other "best" existing or potential rivalries.