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Southern US City Building Permits YTD 2004


paulblackgsx

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I'm not sure that is a very fair statement.

Mecklingburg county and Fulton are nearly identical in size (526 to 529 sq mi respectively).  Fulton county had 16,883 units YTD 2004, which is much larger than Mecklingburg reported.

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I meant by population.

Charlotte is the core of a 1.5M metro

Atlanta is the core of a 5M metro. Trouble for sure in Atlanta.

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Great research.  Here's a couple of interesting things I take from these numbers.

1. Atlanta - On the surface 74k, lots impressive, but 57k worth of single family units, spells big trouble.

2. Miami - the metro, already one of the country's densest, continues to rapidly densify.

3. Fort Myers - Something is definately in the water down there.  SW Florida's hub, is well on its way to having state's next big city skyline.

4. Jacksonville - Its nice to see it come in at No. 8 on the multi-family list, despite being a lot smaller than the other areas, excluding Fort Myers.

5. The top 10 list is dominated by mostly Florida and Texas metros.  I wonder how low below are other larger southern metros.

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Here are some other Large Southern Metros

Austin - 17, 499

Nashville - 16,320

Raleigh - 14,404

Memphis - 10,201

Greensboro/Winston Salem 10,140

Richmond - 9,275

Louisville - 8,324

Birmingham - 7,861

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2005 Year to date Building Permits for some Southern Metropolitian Areas (total units is in bold followed by 1 unit buildings, 2 unit buildings, 3 & 4 unit buildings, 5 or more unit buildings)

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land,* TX 6070 3539 18 12 2501 140

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta,* GA 5059 4597 22 15 425 11

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington,* TX 4382 3019 32 4 1327 107

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL

3424 1675 46 43 1660 47

Orlando,* FL 3112 2060 8 32 1012 55

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater,* FL

2445 2035 66 103 241 18

Jacksonville,* FL 1560 1287 2 0 271 15

Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord,* NC-SC 1419 1321 8 0 90 9

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro,*

TN 1277 946 30 10 291 11

Memphis, TN-MS-AR 720 720 0 0 0 0

Birmingham-Hoover,* AL 671 511 0 0 160 20

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News,

VA-NC 603 539 6 0 58 5

Compared to some Major citeis outside the south....

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4313 3726 16 66 505 31

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island,*

NY-NJ-PA 4027 1278 374 396 1979 76

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet,* IL-IN-WI

2532 1757 42 208 525 36

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana,*

CA 2129 951 62 41 1075 47

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,*

DC-VA-MD-WV 2097 1713 0 4 380 19

Las Vegas-Paradise,* NV 1669 1387 0 40 242 7

Denver-Aurora,* CO 1611 1175 2 34 400 23

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington,*

PA-NJ-DE-MD 1176 954 12 13 197 18

Boston-Cambridge-Quincy,* MA-NH 1157 488 58 36 575 18

Detroit-Warren-Livonia,* MI 1061 819 12 56 174 15

http://www.census.gov/const/C40/Table3/t3yu200501.txt

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Yeah, but one thing to think of.  I much prefer the core numbers I see from Atlanta at the moment.  The slower growth of Fulton (mostly inside 285) has been much denser and more urban.  The numbers illustrate this difference, even compared to Mecklenburg which is mostly still single family.  Fulton had over 50% of it's new units as 5+ family, with 95% of that occuring in the city of Atlanta.  Mecklenberg had around 25% with 5+ family units. 

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Actually Fulton's growth rate was only 1% during the period from 1990 to 2000. It has not done much growing at all. It is tracking at the same rate since it has grown 0.3% in the period 2000-2003. Since 2003, only 2300 people have moved into the county. What the building permit numbers don't show are the numbers of abandoned buildings, what is being torn down, etc etc. It could be the net number of multifamily homes is not chaning at all. Since we are using the Census numbers for this topic a look at population change is warranted. In Fulton's case just 2,300 people have move there in the last 3 years. This tells me there is no significant growth in Fulton to even be concerned about. It does sound as if there is new multifamily apts being built, they are just empting out a building elsewhere.

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I think it's important to note that family sizes are getting smaller as well....especially in urban areas......this would explain why population increases don't neatly track housing growth.....i.e.....a townhouse built in the 60's or 70's would likely house 4 people or more, now maybe only 1 or 2.

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You are correct, I was mistaking Atlanta's population change to the county. The county is indeed grew much faster than the city in the 1990s. I don't believe however that Mecklenburg is repeating what has happened in Fulton as it has been growing faster than Fulton for more than 15 years and is already approaching present day Fulton in population and density. In a couple of more years if the growth rates hold, Mecklenburg will exceed Fulton in both population and density.

Population Change 1990-2000

Fulton - 167,055

Mecklenburg - 184,021

Population Change 2000-2003

Fulton - 2,684

Mecklenburg - 56,912

Growth Rate

Fulton - 0.3%

Mecklenburg - 8.2%

Current Population

Fulton - 818,322

Mecklenburg - 752,366

Population Density, 2003

Fulton - 1546

Mecklenburg - 1431

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