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NC Projections for the year 2030


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DURHAM -- The job market picture in Durham County keeps getting brighter with more jobs added to the county's labor force in March -- the fourth straight month of employment growth -- and Durham's unemployment rate at its lowest level since spring of 2001.

In March, Durham's unemployment rate was 3.6 percent, its lowest level since April 2001, according to the N.C. Employment Security Commission. The county's jobless rate translates into 4,761 unemployed residents out of a total labor force of 133,513. The labor force represents both employed residents and those without jobs who are actively seeking work.

But just as importantly, Durham continued to add jobs to its economy in March with the number of employed residents at 128,752 last month, the most ever and 4,722 more than in March 2005, according to ESC statistics. Durham added 1,571 jobs between February and March alone, according to the ESC.

The area's growing population is helping to push Durham's employment numbers to new highs, said Michael Walden, an economist with N.C. State University.

"That should be the case because we're a growing region," he said. "North Carolina is one of the top places that people think about coming to."

And as new companies locate here and existing firms expand, the job market continues to grow with the population. Durham added thousands of jobs between 2004 and 2005, and Walden said he thinks this year will be even better for the job market.

"I don't think the economy is going to slack that much due to oil and gas prices and I also don't think the housing market is going to crash," he said. "I think that'll translate into a better job market than the previous year."

The good job market report for March extended to the Durham Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Durham, Orange, Chatham and Person counties. The Durham MSA had an unemployment rate of 3.6 percent in March, down from 4.1 percent the previous month. The unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed workers in a work force. The job figures released Friday are not seasonally adjusted.

The Durham metro area also reported solid job growth with the four-county area reporting 242,568 employed residents in March, almost 3,000 more jobs than in February and some 6,700 more than in March 2005, the ESC said. Most of that job growth was fueled by the educational and health services industry sector, the state agency said. Over the past year, that sector has added 2,300 jobs with manufacturing adding the second most at 1,700.

Likewise, the Triangle's job market is booming with the eight-county area adding 8,890 jobs between February and March to end up with 782,725 employed residents last month, according to the ESC. The Triangle's unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in March, down from 3.9 percent in February. The Triangle represents a combination of the Raleigh-Cary and Durham MSAs.

The unemployment rate dropped in 99 of the state's 100 counties in March, according to the ESC. The state's unemployment rate edged down to 4.5 percent in March. The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.7 percent that month.

All six of the counties around Durham saw their unemployment rates drop in March. Orange County's rate dropped to 3.1 percent from 3.6 percent in February. Chatham County's jobless rate dropped to 3.6 percent last month from 3.9 percent in February.

Granville County's unemployment rate dropped to 4.9 percent from 5.4 percent in February. Vance County's unemployment rate dropped to 7.6 percent from 8.2 percent in February and Person County's jobless rate dropped to 5.9 percent from 6.4 percent in February.

http://www.herald-sun.com/durham/4-729611.html

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2. Stanly County--bordered by Cabarrus and Union Counties, this Charlotte exurb is poised to receive spillover growth from its neighbors. An upgrade of Highway 52 will do much to improve the county's attractiveness.

Lake Tillery area is beautiful. Its almost like being in the mountains out there! Right now, the homes situated along the Pee Dee/Yadkin River are second homes/timeshares to most people.

3. Surry County--This county could benefit from having Highway 52 upgraded to an interstate and spillover growth from northwest Forsyth.

I could not see Mt Airy seeing sprawl for a while but further down the road on 52 in the towns around Pilot Mountain and Pinnacle, i could see it happening. Surry County should also be included with Stokes County in this paragraph since there is a bit of development along Hwy 8 near Danbury.

4. Lee County--This Sandhill County could benefit largely from the relatively new expanded Highway 1, as more people see the county as a nice place to live while commuting to Raleigh to work.

This is no secret as this is already happening. The Lee County school system is one of the best in the state. Most of teh development taking place is by the Spring Lane Exit and the eastern ends of Sanford near Broadway.

5. Wilson County--If Wake and Johnston Counties crack down on development, western Wilson could benefit greatly, particularly after the completion of the eastern portion of the outerloop. THe completion of the Knightdale Bypass and the wide open four lane 264 makes getting to western Wilson easy from downtown Raleigh and eastern Wake County. Moreover, Wilson's position along I-95 makes it a prime spot of industrial recruitment. Western Wilson is already starting to see the first signs of growth.

Western Wilson, absolutely. Well said there!

6. Rockingham--This Greensboro-area county could benefit from any curtailment of growth in Guilford county, particularly after the new interstate is completed. Being sandwiched between Danville and Greensboro is bound to eventually pay off for the county.

This will be the Johnston County of the future with sprawl and un-checked development. There are four sizable towns in the county that are at least over 10,000 people and already has 3 Wal Marts in the county!

7. Sampson County--This southeast NC county along I-95 could become a suburb of suburban Johnston County. It has been experiencing decent growth in recent years.

Yep, right along US 421 near I-95. I was suprised to see development this far south!

8. Nash County--Like Wilson, Nash could benefit from the sprawl of Wake county and completion of road projects that make the county an exurb of the Triangle.

Keep an eye on the Red Oak community. Thats an area that is starting to build up which is just west of I-95 by the 64/95 interchange.

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I'm actually amazed at the low population forcast for Cabarrus County with it's unending sprawl in everywhere but its east side. Both Concord and Kannapolis are listed in the top 15 cities in NC population wise. Figured that (seeing as most of K-nap's population is in Cabarrus) those two cities combined would boost them up to the top ten somewhere. I wonder if this study was made before the concord mills and harrisburg sprawl started up and the new Biotechnology Campus in Kannapolis was announced.

I think the projections for Union are a little low. It has grown by 40,000(!) between August 2000 and July 2005, and the US census estimates that the population is at 162,929 as of July 1 2005. Meck grew by over 96,000 during the same time.

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Extreme western North Carolina could see alot of growth from Atlanta considering directly to the west is Chattanooga which is seeing alot of ATL related growth. US 23 and US 19 are major routes leading into Atlanta from western NC. Imagine of I-985 was extended along US 23 into NC then we would be talking about serious growth. Thank god that is not the case.

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What county that is not growing now will explode on the scene as new exurban hot spots? I don't mean counties like Davie, Harnett and Lincoln that are already experiencing high growth rates, but counties that have not yet begun to grow majorly.

7. Sampson County--This southeast NC county along I-95 could become a suburb of suburban Johnston County. It has been experiencing decent growth in recent years.

I'd almost say pay attention to all of the "in-between" counties, of which Sampson is one. By this I mean comparatively rural, inexpensive counties between or equidistant to larger cities & metros in the state.

I'd base this on people I know - one half of a couple commutes to Charlotte (or RTP), the other to Winston (or Greensboro). Places like Alamance, Rowan, Harnett, Sampson & Henderson Counties are all in this position; it makes for commutes that are a bit lengthy, but I know a number of people who are willing to do this.

Certain of these counties - Henderson, Rowan and Alamance for sure - already have sizable populations, and comparatively complex local economies. But I wouldn't be surprised to see new and different kinds of development and population growth in those counties in coming decades, some of it of an unanticipated variety. The blurring of the boundaries between the big metros in the state is well underway; though energy, air quality, infrastructure quality and other sprawl-related issues may also have a major impact on all of this.

Rowan already sees a lot of commuting out to Charlotte, Winston and Greensboro; the I-85 traffic in both directions can be hellish already. In Alamance, Graham and Mebane are or soon will be hot spots - I know a number of renters in Chapel Hill who bought there due to it's closeness and affordability, and Mebane's growth (it straddles a county line) clumps on the Alamance side, even as sprawl surges from the other direction (Greensboro). Sampson is a bit of a haul from the Triangle, but Wilmington, Fayetteville and Jacksonville are also at its' periphery.

This does make me wonder about planning in some of these counties; I am sure officials like the growth, but may not really expect that they might have to deal with the ills that go along with it if not planned for. The closer-in counties like Cabarrus have had to deal with a lot of unanticipated headaches, like school issues and godawful traffic problems.

As others have mentioned, I'd also watch the NE and SW corners of NC - the Albemarle region (close to Chesapeake-Virginia Beach) and the Southwest mountains (close to Chattanooga and Atlanta) for similar reasons.

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As others have mentioned, I'd also watch the NE and SW corners of NC - the Albemarle region (close to Chesapeake-Virginia Beach) and the Southwest mountains (close to Chattanooga and Atlanta) for similar reasons.

SW NC is very exburban from Atlanta so i do not expect a whole lot to happen out there. However, NE NC, I definatly agree.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Wilmington has so much potiental to be something similar to Baltimore, MD. If the lower Cape Fear region put their heads together. Plus we could some how get headquartors to relocate or start in the downtown area it make a beautiful waterfront skyline. Imagine how dense the city would be if New Hanover county had about 700,000 living there.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Wow, all I know is that Mecklenburg county is gonna be crazy dense. It will have close to what Wake county has in population by that time, yet with only a third of the space, being that Wake county is the largest in the state. People are gonna be living all over each other. Who knew?

Robeson County is the largest county in land area (951 sq. miles) in North Carolina.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Wake county has a total area of (857 sq. miles). (832 sq. miles) of it is land and (25 sq. miles) of it is water. The total area is 2.95% water.

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Robeson County is the largest county in land area (951 sq. miles) in North Carolina.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Wake county has a total area of (857 sq. miles). (832 sq. miles) of it is land and (25 sq. miles) of it is water. The total area is 2.95% water.

For some reason I thought Johnston county was larger.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I have to agree, I believe the estimates for Cumberland, New Hanover, Brunswick and Harnett counties are lower than what they will actually be. I don't know if Cumberland's population will reach the 500s (I wish), but I do believe it will be well into the 400s. I also believe that Harnett will be in the 200s. I think many are under-estimating the changes that BRAC will bring to the region. In just the next 5 years 30,000+ new residents in the Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke and Moore county region. And, quite possibly some of the surrounding counties to this area not mentioned. I also believe that with this population increase, there will be some big announcements in this area (in terms of business relocations and expansions). Which, in turn, will further increase the population. Just in this past sunday's Fayetteville Observer classified section was a company looking for 400 customer service reps in the Fayetteville area. I know these are not the high-paying jobs that I would like to see come to the area, but I believe that it is a start. I still believe that Fayetteville will see spill-over growth from the Triangle region. We are already seeing this with all the new subdivisions being built in northern and northeastern Cumberland County. I also feel that businesses will see that land is cheaper in Cumberland County and will start to look closer at us for relocations and expansions. I still hold on to the belief that Fayetteville is the best-kept secret in NC. And, as I believe, many on this site think of Ft. Bragg as a liability; however, it is a great asset. I have heard that many contractors are looking to locate in Fayetteville and can't find enough office space. The next couple of years will bring a building boom to Fayetteville. I project Cumberland County's population which is now at about 310,000 will blossom to at least 350,000 within the next 5-10 years.

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Cumberland county with 500,000 folks....thats scary. I hope that they build more shopping and housing options that don't include Skibo Rd. Also enough with the strip malls. Not only is it tacky but it gives the whole city a detached feeling. Bring back downtown entertainment like in the old days just not as sleazy :blush: Last time I was home I saw a new food lion right before 24 goes divided. I tell ya the growth is crazy to see over time. I remember when they were building the 4 lane 24 and it was nothing but woods out there. Now it is all subdivisions.

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  • 2 months later...

Earlier in this thread, many of us predicted Wilson County would immerge as a new boom county in the coming years. WRAL has a story about all the growth going on in Wilson right now, particularly all the new economic development. Also In 2004, Policom, a company that studies local economies, ranked Wilson 115th in the nation for economic strength among cities with 10,000 to 50,000 people. Wilson jumped to 62nd last year and hit 13th in the nation this year --the highest ranking in North Carolina.

Earlier, I said:

5. Wilson County--If Wake and Johnston Counties crack down on development, western Wilson could benefit greatly, particularly after the completion of the eastern portion of the outerloop. THe completion of the Knightdale Bypass and the wide open four lane 264 makes getting to western Wilson easy from downtown Raleigh and eastern Wake County. Moreover, Wilson's position along I-95 makes it a prime spot of industrial recruitment. Western Wilson is already starting to see the first signs of growth.

http://www.wral.com/news/9735239/detail.html

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From the Wilson Daily:

Wilson County is going through a growth spurt, adding hundreds of new residents per year, according to new population estimates released this week by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The new data suggests that Wilson is benefiting more from the high growth of Raleigh and the Triangle area than its neighbors in eastern North Carolina.

The Census Bureau updated Monday its population estimates for more than 1,000 U.S. urban areas. The updates are intended to show the number of people living in these areas on July 1, 2005.

Wilson County's population was estimated at 76,281, or an increase of nearly 500 people from the previous year.

The growth continues a several-year surge. The 2000 Census tallied 72,932 residents, so the county has averaged an annual gain of 660 or about 1 percent per year.

http://www.wilsondaily.com/Wil_region/Loca...70289239544.php

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In contrast, the Rocky Mount metropolitan area, which includes all of Nash and Edgecombe counties, grew from 145,033 residents in 2004 to 145,507 last year, or about a third of a percent, the Census Bureau estimated. Its growth since 2000 has been less than 2 percent.

Wayne County gained about 273 people last year, about a quarter of a percent. Its total growth since 2000 has been around 1 percent.

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How can you possibly indicate Greensboro as urban and not Winston-Salem, which is more dense than Greensboro. The basic difference between Winston-Salem and Greensboro is High Point. I thought this was the Triad anyway. Your comment is obviously bias, unfounded, and not supported by facts.

I agree, New Hanover will be very dense because it is a very small county in land area, and a retriement destination that is exploding. In fact, I predict, Wilmington will become the State's sixth major city; actualy, it probably already is so.

Im not so sure about that. Winston-Salem is geographically larger than Greensboro and still has a smaller population with Greensboro having more than 30,000 people over W-S.

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