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NC Projections for the year 2030


monsoon

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Mainly motivated by curiosity, I've started following the situation in NE NC. I've lived in Charlotte (18 yrs), Boone (12 yrs) and Chapel Hill (8 yrs), but have had close friends from pretty much every one of the 15 (or so) laregst cities in the state, and have travelled NC from end to end extensively. I think the coastal plain - E NC - is a beautiful, beautiful place, and not just along the immediate coast. The flat landscape lacks the drama of the mountains, but its' vastness is impressive - to me - in a similar way. So I am quite bothered by the downturn in fortunes in an area that I feel some attachment to.

I have no idea what could be done to reverse this - I recall reading a series on this in the News & Observer a few years back, and they quoted someone from the Kinston chamber of commerce bemoaning the brain drain to the big metros in the state. A similar phenomena began - on a much larger scale - on the high plains in the 1930s, and hasn't stopped yet, and a lot of time and energy is being devoted towards possible solutions.

One of which we may be witnessing in Greensburg, KA. Greensburg lost population for decades, only to then be more or less completely flattened by a tornado last May. The mayor has outlined a rather bold vision of rebuilding the entire town as the first completely 'green' town in the country, and in a place with very little left to lose, the locals have jumped on board. And now the idea - which was initially rebuffed by FEMA - has attracted some strong business interest. Now it's way too early to see if they can pull this off, but it's a very bold idea, and getting people behind it has drawn worthwhile interest. So - part of the solution (back in E NC) might involve thinking way, way outside the box.

Being from just east of 95 I know just how hard the area has been hit by "globalization". Many of small towns and cities have been devastated by the loss of all of the manufacturing jobs. Although I hate see these communities suffer I am for a concentration of investments. Meaning concentrate the growth and developments in the focus cities and surrounding area that are in place now. That way precious land will be conserved and money will not be wasted. As it stands now the east has about 5 clusters of population that can be havens for smart growth. If done right the brain drain could be minimalized and wetlands and forest can be saved. I really don't count Fayetteville or Jacksonville in those focus areas because they really rely on federal money for their economy.

Of couse I say all of this as an afterthought as what has started will probably not be reversed. It was bound to happen sooner than later. With the dynamic momentum that Raleigh and Charlotte have the east was going to bleed its populaiton anyway. As with anything else in nature you must adapt or become extinct. There is hope however. The building of the new port in Brunswick county and the expansion of the port at Morehead City will reap some immediate benefits. Also the counties that border Hampton Roads will continue to see growth as the home prices and cheaper land draws folks who chose to commute. If there ever were an interstate connection or a turnpike from the northern outer banks to southern Chesapeake or Va Beach then the growth would really take off. Also I see Greenville keeping its head of steam and continuing its growth spurt. Wilmington is the true diamond in the rough. If the city can get a hold of the crime and traffic problems then I can't see it not someday taking the lead as the population leader for any city east of 95.

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I am particularly curious about the Alamance-Orange county connection. As it stands this "last link" in the chain is worth watching because if major developments pop up along 40/85 then there will be a continuous link of population from northern Johnston county to Forsyth. Mini "mega" region has a chance to happen before the Charlotte-Greensboro link up simply because of the fact that Burlingtons development stretches east and west only leaving the eastern Alamance/west Orange county as the last vestige of undeveloped land between the Triad and Triangle. However most of the population will parallel the interstate much like I-95 from Wilmingtin DE to the Jersey Turnpike all the way up to New Brunswick.

Agreed that the link from WS to Johnston will be "complete" before the Greensboro-Charlotte link. I commute from GSO to Cary now and in my opinion the link there is nearly complete, only having a real hiccup just east of Greensboro ironically. On the other hand, most of the Greensboro - CLT link is rural and/or hidden. Still though, the population density of the Piedmont Cresent as a whole is actually quite high, I think by 2030 this continued trend will make the CLT-Raleigh link a continuous band of urbanity. Or perhaps "suburbanity" is a better word...

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the fact that Burlingtons development stretches east and west only leaving the eastern Alamance/west Orange county as the last vestige of undeveloped land between the Triad and Triangle.

Living in Burlington I can agree NCSC74 that you are correct. Greensboro's development is passing exit 132 along I-85/40, and Burlington's western development is at exit 135 with the large Ridge Creek and Brightwood Farm developments (a 3 mile gap). In Alamance County the only area not developed in some way would be exit 150 (Graham/ Haw River), which is held back due to a now defunct strip club and two large truck stops being adjacent to that exit. Exit 152 is being surrounded by Mebane to the north and south. Efland and Hillsborough is where the gap between the metro always be always be. Mebane is aggressively growing into Orange County and the new Buckhorn Village if approved will only fuel that growth even more. Orange County is anti-growth/ smart growth, Alamance County is the opposite. Mebane is Alamance County growing into Orange County. In a few years when the 4-6 lane 119 Bypass is constructed I expect that last gap of development along I-85/40 in Alamance County to be filled.

As far as growth in NC. I would love to see a NJ Transit type intercity bus/ commuter rail system implemented in NC. This would set us apart from the south and I feel its very achieveable. Such a system would allow so many of NC's downtowns to flourish and growth.

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  • 3 months later...

Now with the Global Transpark's first big industrial announcement, there is a possibility that some eastern NC counties, besides New Hanover/Brunswick and Outer Banks locales, may turn around their decline. IN addition to Lenoir County's boost from the GTP announcement, the Military Growth Task Force recently announced that Marine Corps expansion will add 11,477 new military-related jobs by 2009. Moreover, the Task Force estimates that growth in that military growth - with the families, related service industry, and normal expansion - is expected to add as many as 78,000 new people to the 7,000-square-mile area around Camp Lejeune, Cherry Point and New River by 2011. The total growth projection is based on calculations by the federal Office of Economic Adjustment.

http://www.newbernsj.com/news/growth_39392...ine_coming.html

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According to the U.S. Census, Alamance County grew from 130,800 people in 2000 to an estimated 145,360 people in 2007, a gain of almost 15,000 people. While this is robust growth, it is not the type of breakneck growth seen in Johnston or Union counties. However, the area may be on the cusp of greater growth with the opening of the Greensboro Beltway and the immergence of the county as a major shopping destination.

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Iredell County has certainly joined the ranks of the rapid growers. From 1990 to 2000, Iredell went from a population of 93,205 to 122,660, a gain of almost 30,000 people. But in 2007, the county was estimated to have 151,445 people, a gain of almost 30,000 people in just seven years! The county's growth is accelerating.

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Interesting to look back and see how the U.S. Census Bureau has drastically underestimated NC growth in its population projections. In 1996, the Bureau projected that the state would have 7.8 million people by 2000. Actually, the state had 8.05 million people in 2000. In 1996, the Bureau also projected that NC would have 9.3 million people in 2025. Actually, the Census now estimates that NC had 9.061 million people in 2007. In all likelihood, the state will have 9.3 million people by next year, about 16 years earlier than projected by the Census in 1996.

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By 2025 we all may be surprise. Water may play a big part on how much a city can grow. Charlotte's and Raleigh's population may be smaller than projected due to shortages of water. Growth may be higher in Greensboro and Winston Salem. Than projected. What I do know is the cost of fuel will make public transportation popular with people.

I think the chances of Greensboro and Winston Salem getting rail by 2025 is goo

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According to the U.S. Census, Alamance County grew from 130,800 people in 2000 to an estimated 145,360 people in 2007, a gain of almost 15,000 people. While this is robust growth, it is not the type of breakneck growth seen in Johnston or Union counties. However, the area may be on the cusp of greater growth with the opening of the Greensboro Beltway and the immergence of the county as a major shopping destination.

Alamance is tiny in area, so I think that is a significant number. Perhaps new density maps tell a more relevant story?

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  • 8 months later...

Now that the recession is becoming increasingly worse throughout the country, have these projections altered? I understand that North Carolina is not taking this nearly as hard as other states; however, with the financial industry in a rut and widespread fear across the nation in the minds of consumers, is North Carolina still looking at such an immense boom?

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Now that the recession is becoming increasingly worse throughout the country, have these projections altered? I understand that North Carolina is not taking this nearly as hard as other states; however, with the financial industry in a rut and widespread fear across the nation in the minds of consumers, is North Carolina still looking at such an immense boom?

I don't think that the projections would change drastically. 2030 is 21 years away; this recession will be ancient history by then.

IMO, North Carolina is in as good a shape as just about any state in the country. Real estate prices are holding steady or even increasing in the two largest metros for a good reason: the Research Triangle and Charlotte are still highly desirable places to live. Those metro areas' growth in recent years was not the out-of-control boom like in Arizona and SoCal; they've been steady for decades.

North Carolina also has become a central place for two kinds of talent. I'm sure Charlotte will suffer, but there will not be a sudden exodus of all the highly-skilled bankers to other places. New banks will come to Charlotte to take advantage of the talent pool. The same will hold true if layoffs occur in the Triangle.

It also doesn't hurt that three of NC's biggest disadvantages have been minimized, which will help the state remain more likely to continue attracting businesses. (1) It's still blazing hot in summertime, but that deterrent is mitigated with the air conditioner, which was a rarity 40 years ago. (2) Its economy is now based more on the skills of people than on natural resources (banking & research instead of agriculture & textiles). (3) The threats of racial discrimination that might have deterred talented, non-white professionals from coming to the state have died down significantly.

Expect NC to keep growing. It'll be A okay.

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  • 2 years later...

Assuming that the economy dramatically improves over the next several years, I can see Greensboro's population well over 400,000 by 2030 and maybe even above 500,000. Today Greensboro is already near the brink of 300,000 and with the FedEx Hub, new interstates and other companies that have moved to Greensboro we should see a spike in job growth and new residents over the next 20 years. But like I said thats assuming the economy will be booming. Winston-Salem's population shouldn't be too far behind by 2030. It will be a situation where two cities less than 10 miles apart will both have populations between 400,000 and 500,000. So by then Greensboro and Winston-Salem will be a highly urban area that will definitely be able to support major league sports franchises and all the other things associated with major cities in the United States. With annexation in both cities, they are moving closer and closer together so the city limits of both cities will nearly touch. Greensboro and Winston-Salem will become an even more unified market. The total Triad population by 2030 should be well over 2 million. I just hope that by 2030, Greensboro's skyline will reflect a city of 400,000 or 500,000 people. There are a several cities that have 500,000 people and have small skylines or almost no skyline at all. Virginia Beach, VA is one example and there are other cities with that population that are suburbs of larger cities. But I do see regional metro mass rail transit in the Triad by 2030.

predictions for Charlotte for 2030:

In 20 years, Charlotte will be one of the top 5 largest cities in the United States if the city's rate of growth keeps up. We should see even greater amenities in the Queen City by then including an even larger skyline. Expect to see more towers south of I-277 in South End. It could become Charlotte's version of mid town Atlanta. It will be one big skyline. In 20 years Charlotte will have a new stadium for the Carolina Panthers and it will be a dome. The light rail system will be expanded throughout the city and Charlotte will have an uptown streetcar system. In 20 years or less, I see Charlotte with a tower reaching 80-stories.

more predictions for Greensboro/Winston-Salem for 2030

- The Triad will have major league soccer

- mass rail metro transit

- a spike in white collar office jobs

- downtown Greensboro and Winston-Salem will have even more urban amenities.

- Greensboro and Winston-Salem will be even more well known nationally

- Greensboro will become a major distribution and logistics hub on the east coast.

- The two cities will have a large cluster of hitech manufacturing and research

- Greensboro will become a major hot bed for hosting major national sports events/tournaments at the coliseum.

- Both cities will have bigger skylines, but not to the level of Charlotte. Greensboro's skyline may have an additional 2 to 4 towers. Maybe more but that really depends on the economic climate in Greensboro and the kind of jobs the city attracts. The FedEx hub and new interstates and research park will have a positive effect on the city.

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IN population, it would take a radical development for the Triad to become larger than the Triangle anytime this century. Keep in mind that the Triangle CSA is now approaching 1.8 million. The Triangle's economy is driving its growth, and shows no sign of abating.

I agree, The Triad's economy would really have to take off but its not impossible. The Triangle only recently surpassed the Triad in population. During the last census, the Triad had more people. But the current trend is rapid growth in the Triangle and steady growth in the Triad. It will be interesting to see how much the FedEx hub, research parks, new interstates and downtown revitalization efforts effects the growth trends of Greensboro and Winston-Salem. After all several big companies moved to the area because of FedEx and at the time the hub hadn't even opened yet. Dell was one of those companies but unfortunately the Dell plant closed down in part because of the economy. I think there is a potential for some growth in the financial sector. Both Triad cities already have a bank headquarters (BB&T in Winston-Salem and NewBridge Bank in Greensboro) But I don't think the Triad will ever become a powerhouse in the financial sector the way Charlotte has.

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I have lived in various parts of The Triangle for all but about 5 years of my life and I must say it seems as if living in the Triad could be kind of neat. You'd be located in betweem Charlotte and the Triangle so I imagine the options within an hour or 2 drive as far as day trips are concerned would be fantastic. You'd be a bit closer to the mountains (especially the SW VA mountains) but still not too far from the beach (well the western Triad may be a bit of a drive to the beach). I personally think the Triad will definately come into it's own over the coming few decades, not to mention act as a link between Charlotte and the Triangle. I think that's part of what makes NC so awesome. You have the beautiful relatively unspoiled mountains (and a very cool city in Asheville), beautiful beaches (with a coastal "city" option in Wilmington) as well as the more subtle beauty of the rural piedmont with it's rolling hills and lakes/rivers plus 3 awesome metros to choose from to live/work/play. I definately think the piedmont will continue it's fast paced growth, hopefully more then just the sprawly suburban variety, the mountains and beach will continue to grow at a bit more leisurly pace (although coastal vacation home overbuilding is my worry for the coast). I honestly don't think there's any other place I'd rather be in the southeast. :-)

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In 2030 I estimate Charlotte and Raleigh metros to be at least 3 million. I expect the Triad to be at 2 million. I expect NC to have a population of 12-13 million with 60-70% living in the big 3. I also expect the Piedmont Crescent to be one continuous urban area from Raleigh to Charlotte. I also expect for Fayetteville to be included in Raleigh's CSA and Hickory to be included in Charlotte's CSA.

I don't expect much explosive growth for Asheville. But Asheville doesn't need explosive growth but for its economy to continue grow at a healthy pace. Wilmington could be the "city" outside of the Piedmont. Greenville is another city to watch.

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