NC Projections for the year 2030

[erm1981]

I think Greenville, SC is only going to be 500,000 in the county by 2030. Its at 407,000 now as an estimate. North Carolina's cities are leaving SC's in the dust. Maybe i need to leave the Greenville area and move to Raleigh.

-Evan

[RiverwoodCLT]

From the pictiures I have seen of Greenville, SC, I do not think downtown Raleigh will be a big step up. Greenville has a pretty and active downtown are from the posts I have seen.

[cinco]

camp lejeune will become the capital of the "eastern alliance" as the U.S. republic will be divided into thirds, by then. the eastern alliance will be ruled by a puppet regime, commanded by one known as "essex". martial law is implemented through-out the eastern alliance.

soon after, jacksonville NC is overtaken by the "halifax 15" and the "biltmore band" - in what is to be known as the "saturday matinee" revolt. an electronic (bloodless) coup ensues and "essex" is unveiled as a computer, controlled by a 15 yr old from the neighboring ally statehood of "westy".....

but, now i'm getting into the mid 2030's, which is not on topic. anyways, should be interesting times.

[urbanaturalist]

12 million in NC people by 2030. Whatever happened to the 1 million acre land conservation program that was touted by Governor Easly. I think it lost funding from the mega-growth at all cost champions in NC Legislature. That really needs to get back on the drawing board. I know from a lot people's vantage point, NC will never run out agricultural or wilderness land, but the way each of the 100 county governments decides to manage growth will be a factor in where all the new residents will go and what will be preserved.

I'm surprised that Johnston County will hit the top 10, its like mega sprawl, but I think they are wising up. Which is why the leapfrogging over to Wilson County means growth has to be managed there as well. Leapfrogging has got to be reigned or at least managed with smart (genius) growth, I know every county wants there slice of the pie, but it should be in a comprehensive plan.

And Brunswick County growth, along the NC coast, is interesting, b/se once again the un-smart growth Democrats/Republicans in the NC Legislature have decided not increase rules for sewage disposal along coastal counties, b/se the developer lobby would see their building cost increase. We can't let economic development blind us from protecting our environment, and seriously this is the coast were talking about, but it shouldn't matter protecting water resources is critical.

Besides, once again, over 1 million people projected for Wake County is more than enough reason to get that TTA up and running.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

Apparently, our predictions about Wilson are already coming to fruition.

Wilson Boom

[cityboi]

From the pictiures I have seen of Greenville, SC, I do not think downtown Raleigh will be a big step up. Greenville has a pretty and active downtown are from the posts I have seen.

I personally think Greenville is an up and coming city that will become a major city. It has everything in place to make that happen. Downtown is amazing. there are more than 80, probabally more than a 100 restaurants just in downtown. The city has a downtown arena, ballpark, river and there is a major residential boom in downtown. Not to mention the companies Greenville is attracting. Its becoming a research hub and has an automotive research campus. BMW is nearby and Michelin North America is headquartered there. The type of jobs and companies coming into to the area say that Greenville will one day become a major cosmoplitian city and will represent "The new South" very well.

well..we all know this isnt the case now

lol...you are going to rub it in

[nowensone]

As mentioned earlier, I also think 12 million is a very conservative estimation. The state's projections at the previous mid decade interval were also very low. For example, in 1995 they estimated NC wouldn't hit the 9.3 million mark until 2025. We're close to that right now in 2006. Also, the talks of density and transit, NC's cities have historically surpassed each other in a battle of musical chairs. Charlotte has emerged from that the victor, for now, but I expect it will happen again. Who's next? Raleigh has a jump start, but is there really the economic impetus to propel it into big league status? Will Winston Salem become the next Charlotte in 24 years (and possibly regain it's old status as #1)? Sleepy Greensboro?

This state is only going to grow faster and quicker for at least the next few decades, if these projections determine state funding and planning, lets be proactive now before services/infrastructure fall behind and hurt us worse. Greensboro, which I called lazy before (referring to relative growth), is still growing too quickly to build enough schools, if only it had begun this process earlier, or at least seen this coming. Maybe GSO and the state in general can't be blamed back in '95 for not seeing this happening, but now we know better.

[davidals]

Those numbers are quite impressive... the only thing that suprised me is that Gaston Co. was left off the population list. Which makes me wonder, what is wrong with that place!?! They barely made the density list too.

Next to Mecklenburg, they've had all the best connections to Charlotte, the airport and the interstates for some time now and they're still falling behind Union, York and Cabarrus Counties. I just don't get it.

The estimates are "if present trends continue," I'm guessing. I think Gaston projections may need to be revised up with the Garden Pkwy, which - it has been admitted - already has developes salivating over south Gaston and north York land that will be much more accessible. Gaston people need to be vigilant over how they allow that area to develop.

[davidals]

What county that is not growing now will explode on the scene as new exurban hot spots? I don't mean counties like Davie, Harnett and Lincoln that are already experiencing high growth rates, but counties that have not yet begun to grow majorly.

Some of my suggestions are already getting a lot of suburban overflow, and some aren't yet, but:

Charlotte area

1. Gaston - Image problems or not, Gaston is in a great location. The Garden Pkwy will spark a land rush in S. Gaston & N. York.

2. Stanly - Southern: some sprawl psuhing east out NC 24/27 through Midland towards Albemarle.

3. Catawba - A bit far off to be an exurb, and it's part of it's own metro, but if NC16 is upgraded (planned for, but it's on a long waiting list) we'll see an uptick in scattered sprawliness from NW Lake Norman back towards Newton and Hickory.

Triangle & Triad

I grouped these together because of the two link counties between the metros - Alamance and Chatham. Both are getting steady development in specific areas; I think this will accelerate. There are political differences between E. Chatham (Triangle suburban) and W. Chatham (potential Triad suburb), with a big swath of very sparsely-populated rural land between. I think the 15-501 and 64 areas linking Pittsboro and Chapel Hill/Cary will grow significantly (Orange County basically prices working people out); and - though less developed - the US 421 corridor from Greensboro and Siler City is a sprawlopolis waiting to happen, for those sick of traffic headaches elsewhere in the Triad.

I know several couples where one works in the Triad and the other in the Triangle; there are lots that choose to live in Chatham and Alamance to cut commute times. As the economies of both metros develops, you'll see more of this.

Harnett (between Fayetteville & Raleigh) is attractive for the same reason.

Other

Keep an eye on the southern part of Pender County, not in the immediate future, but 10 years out of so. Northern Brunswick is already starting to pick up; not just the resort stuff elsewhere in Brunswick, but more suburban.

I think SW NC is a bit far out to turn into much of an Atlanta exurb, but they'll pick up a little spillover. Closer to Asheville, I'd guess the NC 280 corridor down towards Brevard will develop more; I wonder what the improvement to US 19/Fut I 26 will do up into Madison County?

In the NE - Camden and Currituck and the Elizabeth City area, already turning into a Tidewater VA burb.

Greenville NC - that population spike of almost 20,000 people in the last 20 years is interesting - much of it attributable to ECU certainly, but I also think it's emerging as a major hub in a vast area of Eastern NC; we'll see what the growth down there looks like in a decade or so. It's really pulling away from the likes of Rocky Mount, Wilson, Kinston, & Goldsboro, which were all similarly sized until the late 1980s (in the same 20-year span, Rocky Mount grew by about 6000 people, Wilson by about 6000, and Kinston and Goldsboro lost population).

As of 2000, the top 15 (for reference) in NC: Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham, Winston-Salem, Fayetteville, Cary, Wilmington, High Point, Asheville, Greenville, Gastonia, Jacksonville, Concord & Rocky Mount. Wilmington & High Point are about 4,000 people away from hitting 100,000 in population, and at present growth rates, even without annexations, they will hit it in about 2-3 years.

Asheville is currently around 75,000; present rates of growth sustained, Greenville will possibly pass it to become the 10th largest city in the state. In any case, Greenville is by far the fastest-growing city in the NC top 20 outside of the big 3 metros.

The latest-round of annexations in Winston will move it back to 4th largest, ahead of Durham, with an estimated in-city population of 212,000+.

Annexation and the military are the problem with projections - Wilmington, Hickory, Greensboro, Asheville, and Gastonia (in particular) have large swaths of suburban development they've (thus far) shown little interest in annexing; all five of those cities could grow by 10,000x_ very quickly if this became more of a local priority. Annexations boost the numbers and the tax base, but they can also create big shifts in minority representation and political demographics. The big military towns also have - at the present - wildly fluctuating "official" populations due to the war...

[monsoon]

The latest-round of annexations in Winston will move it back to 4th largest, ahead of Durham, with an estimated in-city population of 212,000+.

What are the prospects of Durham performing a similiar annexation?

[DCMetroRaleigh]

bump

[wsncfay]

read this whole thread, and i really believe that fayetteville is like the "red-headed step-child" of north carolina, three people brought up points of fayetteville and no one ever replied, i mean seriously what is it about fayetteville that people hate?

[Spartan]

Is it hatred or just a general lack of knowledge?

[davidals]

^

I'd bet a general lack of knowledge; it's the major NC city I know the least about overall. I've always tended to assume that Fayetteville's growth has been somewhat driven by its' relative independence from or disconnection from other big NC cities: Wilmington got its' interstate late, but when it did it joined the other big NC cities (save Fayetteville) - all of them directly connect to at least one other via an interstate or a freeway. Fayetteville's only freeway/interstate connections to other big NC cities are indirect (and until I-40 was completed), so it's always seemed like a slightly less accessible place. Going there from Charlotte was kind of a hell trip.

Plus, a possibly contentious military-town point - the Cold War was good for military cities in general - Fayetteville went from being a town into being a sizable city in just a few decades, post-war era. Fayetteville's always had other business and industry, but overall I don't recall hearing the kind of generalized boosterism that's been long institutionalized in other NC cities coming from Fayetteville until the Cold War ended, and military cities began to belately realize that an economic diversification might be seriously in their best interest. Thus, I'd expect that my (and other people's perhaps) Fayetteville-ignorance will gradually diminish as time passes. If high-speed rail goes through there, that would definitely make a positive impact, as will proximity to the Triangle and decent real-estate prices at the northern end of the metro area.

Just my theory.

[krazeeboi]

I think by 2030, it's very much possible that the Triangle will be larger than the Charlotte region. Wilmington might be a surprise in terms of its stature among the big boys.

[clt29301]

I think by 2030, it's very much possible that the Triangle will be larger than the Charlotte region. Wilmington might be a surprise in terms of its stature among the big boys.

At present, there is about a 600k difference betwen the two regions, that is a lot of difference to make up considering that both are growing a fast rates. Charlotte is projected to grow by about 60k people per year for the next 15-20 years, if Raleigh is going to be larger, they will have to grow at about 90k (about 6% annually) people per year to pull even. Or Charlotte will have to quit growing all together. Is it possible, anything is possible and this is a huge timeframe but, I would not bet on it.

[krazeeboi]

Perhaps that is indeed an ambitious projection on my part. I would expect that the population gap would be narrower by that time, however. So much could happen in both regions within 20 years that could dramatically change things, you just never know. I do think, however, that the Triangle will experience stronger job growth than the Charlotte region over the next several years.

[davidals]

^

Maybe - Wake County - as of 2007 - is only 10,000 smaller than Mecklenburg in population; it should be noted that Wake is geographically considerably larger. For the last several years, Raleigh has been growing faster, but the difference is slight enough that it would take a few decades to catch up with Charlotte, and a lot could happen in that time. As trivia, Raliegh has just become the 2nd NC city in the 50 Largest US cities, as of about a month ago; Raleigh will hit 400,000 by the next census, I'd bet.

I agree on Wilmington, though I don't know how much of a surprise it will be. It's emerging as the 3rd very high-growth spot in the state.

Even the slowest-growing metros in NC are doing very well compared to many places out-of-state, and there is something to be said for that; that warp-speed growth visible in places like (especially) southern and southwestern Wake County are creating a lot of very serious headaches - that area is getting to be the epicenter of some nasty road-and-school debates. We should be careful what we wish for, I guess...

[krazeeboi]

Even the slowest-growing metros in NC are doing very well compared to many places out-of-state, and there is something to be said for that

Really? The slowest growing areas, based on growth rates from 2000-2006, are Jacksonville (0.2%), Goldsboro (0.5%), Fayetteville (1.4%), and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (5.3%). After that you have the Triad, Asheville, and Greenville, all growing in the 6.5%-8.5% range (which could be called moderate). And then there are the high-growth areas of Charlotte, the Triangle, and Wilmington. If you lump in the moderately-growing metro areas with those that can truly be called the slowest-growing ones, then I would see where you're coming from. Otherwise, I don't see how Jacksonville, Goldsboro, Fayetteville, and the Hickory area are faring better than their counterparts in other states. But there may be something I'm missing here?

[CapeFearRiver10]

I believe Fayetteville will become a hub for the sandhills. When the capital building opens this fall & youth national attention Mega Skate Plaza. Also 3 years from now the downtown Art Museum will be open & there should be some residential density from all the Cape Fear River development. In my opinion by 2012-2015 Fayetteville should look very similar to Greenville, SC or Knoxville, TN now.

Oh yeah Greensboro was Amazing last night.

[krazeeboi]

From what I've seen of Fayetteville, it has quite a ways to go to resemble Greenville in only 5 years (I assume we're talking about downtown). But some of the ingredients appear to be in place to make downtown Fayetteville a distinctive, special place.

[clt29301]

^

Maybe - Wake County - as of 2007 - is only 10,000 smaller than Mecklenburg in population; it should be noted that Wake is geographically considerably larger. For the last several years, Raleigh has been growing faster, but the difference is slight enough that it would take a few decades to catch up with Charlotte, and a lot could happen in that time. As trivia, Raliegh has just become the 2nd NC city in the 50 Largest US cities, as of about a month ago; Raleigh will hit 400,000 by the next census, I'd bet.

I agree on Wilmington, though I don't know how much of a surprise it will be. It's emerging as the 3rd very high-growth spot in the state.

Even the slowest-growing metros in NC are doing very well compared to many places out-of-state, and there is something to be said for that; that warp-speed growth visible in places like (especially) southern and southwestern Wake County are creating a lot of very serious headaches - that area is getting to be the epicenter of some nasty road-and-school debates. We should be careful what we wish for, I guess...

You are right, Wake will pass Meck as the state largest county. But, when you look at metro it is about a 600k difference.

[davidals]

Really? The slowest growing areas, based on growth rates from 2000-2006, are Jacksonville (0.2%), Goldsboro (0.5%), Fayetteville (1.4%), and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (5.3%). After that you have the Triad, Asheville, and Greenville, all growing in the 6.5%-8.5% range (which could be called moderate). And then there are the high-growth areas of Charlotte, the Triangle, and Wilmington. If you lump in the moderately-growing metro areas with those that can truly be called the slowest-growing ones, then I would see where you're coming from. Otherwise, I don't see how Jacksonville, Goldsboro, Fayetteville, and the Hickory area are faring better than their counterparts in other states. But there may be something I'm missing here?

Actually, you're right - talking off the top of my head a little; I definitely had the Triad and Asheville in mind as I was typing that.

As for further off the cuff speculation, I would wonder if Fayetteville's proximity to the Triangle might give it a bit of nudge into the future. The population growth rates have tended to be slow in all the predominantly military metros, and those cities are some of the only ones in the state to have lost population at some point during the last decade, though the war has a lot to do with that. Fayetteville's in a better location than Goldsboro and Jacksonville - being on 95 and an hour south of Raleigh are both potential benefits.

The Hickory area I'd love to see take off, but I don't know... I lived in Boone and travelled between there and Charlotte, and got to know Hickory and Lenoir well, and they seem like really depressed places, with some attributes: I-40, some of the highest stretches of the Blue Ridge just NW, relative proximity to Charlotte, Winston and Asheville. It is a real sprawly area, parts of Catawba County especially, not of the kind that indicates any growth, but the kind that just looks like new strip malls replacing the miles of abandoned stuff up the road. For what it's worth, Hickory does have some nice neighborhoods, well away from the highway, though you have to wander around the city a bit to find 'em, and the fact that the city hasn't been cut to shreds by freeways might evolve into a strong asset at some point.

Some random Hickory trivia: none of the streets are named; they are all numbered outward from a central point (downtown), with the city divided into quadrants (NW, NE, SW, SE). Thus there are 4 of everything, and side streets off of a primary street keep the same number/name, with an added suffix, plus an indication of the quadrant: so 3rd St Dr Ct NE (as a random example) would be off 3rd St Dr NE, which would be off of 3rd St NE (the same names would re-appear elsewhere in the city, in the SE, SW, or NW sections of town). You essentially must use landmarks to find your way around town, because if you ain't from there, the naming convention (vaguely reminiscent of some European or Japanese system where roads aren't named, and individual blocks are just assigned a general number, with sub-numbers within leading you to a specific address) is pretty seriously challenging.

[krazeeboi]

Interesting bit of trivia about the street names in Hickory. That's certainly confusing.

I think Fayetteville will have to find a way to really diversify its economy in order to really prosper. The city should find some way to partner with Fayetteville State to bring jobs to the area, but that may require the university to really bolster its research efforts (if it's not doing so already).

[CapeFearRiver10]

Interesting bit of trivia about the street names in Hickory. That's certainly confusing.

I think Fayetteville will have to find a way to really diversify its economy in order to really prosper. The city should find some way to partner with Fayetteville State to bring jobs to the area, but that may require the university to really bolster its research efforts (if it's not doing so already).

Well there was a article last year about Fayetteville State University (FSU) approving a business site in a black community near downtown. It would include a 12-16 story hotel, also the approval of a study for West Fayetteville State University campus site on private land near a park on Bragg blvd for the increasing nursing, Biotechnology & criminal programs.