Jump to content

NC Projections for the year 2030


monsoon

Recommended Posts

How is the Charlotte area 600k larger than the Raleigh area? Charlotte is about 1.6-1.7 mil, Raleigh is about 1.6 mil? If we're talking about Clt's CSA, then that's kind of pushing it, since the land area is vast and mostly rural. I think about 25 counties! If Raleigh was counted the same way, with such a massive land area it would problably still be a little smaller than the Clt CSA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • Replies 170
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Water is going to determine the amount of growth in NC in the future. The Triangle and Charlotte Metro are having to cut back water usage now. If this pattern stays with us for a long time, I can see a freeze on new subdivisions until there is a change for the better.

We could be going into a new weather pattern and growth will come to a slow crawl if water is in short supply.

The eastern part of NC seems to get more rain than in the Piedmont area, so that could be where more growth occurs in the future.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How is the Charlotte area 600k larger than the Raleigh area? Charlotte is about 1.6-1.7 mil, Raleigh is about 1.6 mil? If we're talking about Clt's CSA, then that's kind of pushing it, since the land area is vast and mostly rural. I think about 25 counties! If Raleigh was counted the same way, with such a massive land area it would problably still be a little smaller than the Clt CSA.

You are right...........Charlotte's MSA as defined by the census is 1.7m. Raleigh's msa is around 1-1.1m. If you include Durham MSA in the Raleigh MSA, you do get to roughly 1.5m (the CMSA). But, if you make the comparison's fairly, you have to compare that with Charlotte's CMSA...around 2.1m. For the record, Charlotte's MSA is currently 6 counties (and there are not too many that are rural...surburban yes, but not rural). The CMSA is a few more counties but, not even half of 25, I think around 9. I am sure if you look at the TV area you may get to 25 counties as this goes into the mountain areas and deep into SC.

I am not interested in starting another Charlotte v. Raleigh discussion on this website but, when compared on an equal basis, the population difference is around 600k.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some random Hickory trivia: none of the streets are named; they are all numbered outward from a central point (downtown), with the city divided into quadrants (NW, NE, SW, SE). Thus there are 4 of everything, and side streets off of a primary street keep the same number/name, with an added suffix, plus an indication of the quadrant: so 3rd St Dr Ct NE (as a random example) would be off 3rd St Dr NE, which would be off of 3rd St NE (the same names would re-appear elsewhere in the city, in the SE, SW, or NW sections of town). You essentially must use landmarks to find your way around town, because if you ain't from there, the naming convention (vaguely reminiscent of some European or Japanese system where roads aren't named, and individual blocks are just assigned a general number, with sub-numbers within leading you to a specific address) is pretty seriously challenging.

The actual point downtown is the old train station... and also, if a street is broken up (non-continous) you may see the X St Dr Ave NE stuff.) Most of the cities in the Unifour area followed this practice. To me, it was extremely confusing at first, but after having it explained to me by a real estate agent, I at least can figure it out now. There are newer streets and possibly annexed areas that no longer follow this convention, ie: Tate Blvd, Lenoir-Rhyne Blvd, Springs Rd.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually when I looked it up I saw that Clt's CSA includes the following counties, however totaling 15.

* Mecklenburg County, NC (827,445)

* Gaston County, NC (199,397)

* York County, SC (199,035)

* Union County, NC (175,272)

* Cabarrus County, NC (156,395)

* Catawba County, NC (153,784)

* Iredell County, NC (146,206)

* Rowan County, NC (136,254)

* Cleveland County, NC (98,373)

* Lincoln County, NC (71,894)

* Stanly County, NC (59,358)

* Lancaster County, SC (63,628)

* Alexander County, NC (36,177)

* Chester County, SC (32,875)

* Anson County, NC (25,472)

If Charlotte's CSA was more like Raleigh's CSA with much less counties (7), it would indeed be about the same size. Personally other than Uptown, the Clt area feels more like Raleigh, Jacksonville, or even Greensboro areas in reference to size. Virginia Beach/Norfolk feels so much larger, even though it doesn't match numerically. I'd also add that Richmond feels more urban too. I suspect some of Clt's stats, have been manipulated in order to push the Queen city into higher brackets, even though it's not that urban, by major city standards. However, whatever it takes to get national, and international recognition is all good with me. Even though the stats are fuzzy. :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CSA and MSA designations are determined by the federal government and based on well stated formulas. There is no "cooking of the books" to make one region look better than another.

With that said, population comparisons of CSAs are fairly pointless in regards to how urban a place might be. I would argue the same for MSAs as well because these are not designed for this type of purpose. The best you can probably do is to look at urbanized area, but this is particularly difficult to do because they are not updated that often.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I came across an interesting article from INC Magazine - with the top Boomtowns of 2007. If you click on the link you will see all of the rankings. What captured my interest is the fact that Fayetteville sits in the number 70 position. While this is not as high as other NC Cities, I find it interesting because just one year ago, they had Fayetteville ranked at number 202. That is an increase of 132 slots. Something is happening in Fayetteville that is very interesting. I have also heard that 10,000 jobs have been created in Fayetteville since 2003.

http://www.inc.com/bestcities/best.html?size=0&year=2007

Here is another link to check out:

http://www.imagesfayetteville.com/business...onomic_Boom.php

It provides some additional information.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I came across an interesting article from INC Magazine - with the top Boomtowns of 2007. If you click on the link you will see all of the rankings. What captured my interest is the fact that Fayetteville sits in the number 70 position. While this is not as high as other NC Cities, I find it interesting because just one year ago, they had Fayetteville ranked at number 202. That is an increase of 132 slots. Something is happening in Fayetteville that is very interesting. I have also heard that 10,000 jobs have been created in Fayetteville since 2003.

http://www.inc.com/bestcities/best.html?size=0&year=2007

Here is another link to check out:

http://www.imagesfayetteville.com/business...onomic_Boom.php

It provides some additional information.

great news in my opinion, i'm very glad for my home town

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I came across an interesting article from INC Magazine - with the top Boomtowns of 2007. If you click on the link you will see all of the rankings. What captured my interest is the fact that Fayetteville sits in the number 70 position. While this is not as high as other NC Cities, I find it interesting because just one year ago, they had Fayetteville ranked at number 202. That is an increase of 132 slots. Something is happening in Fayetteville that is very interesting. I have also heard that 10,000 jobs have been created in Fayetteville since 2003.

http://www.inc.com/bestcities/best.html?size=0&year=2007

Here is another link to check out:

http://www.imagesfayetteville.com/business...onomic_Boom.php

It provides some additional information.

This is good stuff man, I also read a article 4 years ago when the military business association was created about RTP predicted that this group could possibly gain 60,000 jobs within a 70-80 yr time frame. I remember seeing a TV special about Greater Fayetteville Futures about all the things they want to create for the city. I guess these old men that started all this knew they were doing.

1. First thing they created a center park for downtown.

2. create a stronger relationship between Fayetteville & the military.

3. Bringing people back to downtown (Capital building, Mega skate plaza, Cape Fear River Events)

*The only things hasn't been accomplish on their list yet:

1. Residential density downtown & along the river.

2. A major attraction (theme park) for the sandhill area.

3. Diversifying Fayetteville economy.

There is one thing Fayetteville has that others major cities wish they had is a large river running through it. So when water runs dry in other areas Fayetteville will be seeing major positive changes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Charlotte's CSA was more like Raleigh's CSA with much less counties (7),

According to the census numbers, the Charlotte CMSA is at 2.2m, the Raleigh Durham CMSA is at 1.6. Those are federal numbers not influenced by Charlotte.

If you want to manipulate the numbers, I am sure you can make Charlotte & Raleigh equal in size. I do not think that is the correct way to do it. And, I am not sure how Charlotte would manipulate these stats as they are off of the Census website.

To me, you also can not take out center city Charlotte and say that it feels equal to Raleigh etc....in fact, the SouthPark area of Charlotte is closer in size to downtown Raleigh that center city Charlotte would be. Center City Charlotte is a major part of the metro, taking that out for comparisons makes no sense.

The Census bureau also split Raleigh/Durham up, even though the two cities physically touch. The Census bureau gives a good idea about a city's demographics, but their not perfect.

My point is the fact, Clt's land area is a bit massive for even a CMSA. Compared to most citie's of the same numerical size, the Clt CMSA isn't that dense at all. I know there has to be a reason Richmond and Hampton Roads, feel so much more urban, and connected. In reality NC's biggest cities escalate in the ranks, because of heavy annexation..... Even Richmond's urban area was larger than Clt's back in 2000! Va. Beach's UA was more than 600k larger than Clt's! It's actually a numbers game, really.

Charlotte has a rather large center city that gives it stature. Even before heavy annexation, the city of Clt was a pretty large, and moderately dense city at 130+ sq miles in the late 80's. The liberal annexation has ballooned Charlotte's pop. to over 650k, when it feels nowhere near that large. Clt's land area is now almost the size of NYC!!! The main areas in Clt that feel a bit more urban than Raleigh's, are in near the Uptown areas, other than that it feels just like Raleigh, or any other mid-size, semi-large city. If Raleigh annexed the cities around it, it would be almost the same size Clt is today. Clt's is a bit larger than Raleigh, but not by that much.

I also fail to see how Raleigh's DT, is comparable to suburban SouthPark. That's obviously a gross overstatement, without merit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Annexation has nothing to do with the urban nature of a place nor anything to do with it's MSA or CSA designation. It's a political boundry and not good for much else..., certainly useless in comparisons to other cities. Comparisons of CSA's, MSA's and city limit size are fairly pointless unless you are a numbers junky or something, but they don't provide any information that can give a meaningful comparison of places.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Annexation has nothing to do with the urban nature of a place nor anything to do with it's MSA or CSA designation. It's a political boundry and not good for much else..., certainly useless in comparisons to other cities. Comparisons of CSA's, MSA's and city limit size are fairly pointless unless you are a numbers junky or something, but they don't provide any information that can give a meaningful comparison of places.

Agreed! Kind of like how ATL is smaller than Clt numerically, but it's obvious which city is larger in person. I'm sure that with all of the central urbanization going on in NC's big cities, by 2030 we will most certainly have the urbanity to back up our numbers. I'll only be 50 by then. So i will still be in the mix of things. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Census bureau also split Raleigh/Durham up, even though the two cities physically touch. The Census bureau gives a good idea about a city's demographics, but their not perfect.

My point is the fact, Clt's land area is a bit massive for even a CMSA. Compared to most citie's of the same numerical size, the Clt CMSA isn't that dense at all. I know there has to be a reason Richmond and Hampton Roads, feel so much more urban, and connected. In reality NC's biggest cities escalate in the ranks, because of heavy annexation..... Even Richmond's urban area was larger than Clt's back in 2000! Va. Beach's UA was more than 600k larger than Clt's! It's actually a numbers game, really.

Charlotte has a rather large center city that gives it stature. Even before heavy annexation, the city of Clt was a pretty large, and moderately dense city at 130+ sq miles in the late 80's. The liberal annexation has ballooned Charlotte's pop. to over 650k, when it feels nowhere near that large. Clt's land area is now almost the size of NYC!!! The main areas in Clt that feel a bit more urban than Raleigh's, are in near the Uptown areas, other than that it feels just like Raleigh, or any other mid-size, semi-large city. If Raleigh annexed the cities around it, it would be almost the same size Clt is today. Clt's is a bit larger than Raleigh, but not by that much.

I also fail to see how Raleigh's DT, is comparable to suburban SouthPark. That's obviously a gross overstatement, without merit.

The census bureau also does not include Iredell county in the Charlotte MSA even though you would not be able to distinguish when Meck ends and Iredell starts. Same with Lancaster county. But, they are part of the CMSA. And by the way, some of the counties on your list are not part of either the MSA or CMSA...Catawba County for one is Hickory which, as of today, is separate from Charlotte. But, if you want to compare the size of cities/areas, you have to compare them on the same numbers. You simply can not pick things that will be part of Raleigh or Charlotte simply because they have a certian feel.

And I agree that the MSA and CMSA designations are not perfect but, that is what we have to go by and what businessses use (amoung other things) when dertermining where to go....IKEA for one. Some accounting rules do not make a lot of sense either but, when comparing financials, they all have to be derived by the same set of rules otherwise investors would have trouble determining what is a true representation of the company.

I am not sure what a city of 650k is supposed to feel like but, I have never thought of Charlotte feeling small. If you feel that Charlotte feels smaller than Richmond, Va Beach or Raleigh, thats fine, everyone has different feeling about different places. Personally, I have never been too impressed with downtown Raleigh, I felt that it was a bit more like Greenville SC than a large city....I am not trying to bash the city, it certainly has a lot going for it...that was just my impression.

As for Southpark, I simple pointed that out in response to your comment that outside of downtown, I thought that was an odd comment because downtown is the central part of the region, Charlotte felt just like Raleigh...........it is true that the SouthPark area is similar in size to downtown Raleigh. Both have around 4.5 - 5.0m square feet of rentable office space etc...it is not an overstatement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's ridiculous! Southpark is nowhere near comparable to downtown Raleigh. I find that almost insulting. If those are the stats you choose to pick, how about the fact that DT Raleigh has about 1/2 million more retail sq foot space DT, than Uptown Charlotte? Statistics can also be somewhat subjective you see. I'm not trying to turn this into a versus thread, for the simple fact that Charlotte is one of the crown jewels of our state. The only point i'm trying to make, is the fact Charlotte, and the Raleigh/Durham MSA's were pretty close in size, before Raleigh/Durham were split up for dubious reasons. If you check out the 2000 census there was in fact about a 100k-150k population difference. I don't even think Raleigh had a CSA then. The MSA before the split is now politically a CSA. :huh: In actuality all three of the major metros in NC (CLT,Triad,Triangle), are about the same size, and feel.

I also never said Charlotte feels smaller, or less urban than Raleigh either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Annexation has nothing to do with the urban nature of a place nor anything to do with it's MSA or CSA designation. It's a political boundry and not good for much else..., certainly useless in comparisons to other cities. Comparisons of CSA's, MSA's and city limit size are fairly pointless unless you are a numbers junky or something, but they don't provide any information that can give a meaningful comparison of places.

I agree, geographically Anchorage, Alaska is America's largest city follwed by Jacksonville, FL. boundaries dont really mean anything unless it is done to help stregnthen the tax base of the city or boost the city's population for census numbers. Its no coincidence Greensboro is annexing more than 10,000 people next year as we get closer to 2010. This time next year, Greensboro's population will be 251,900 and by 2010 it will be 256,500. The goal between now and 2010 is for the city of Greensboro to annex more than 15,000 people.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's ridiculous! Southpark is nowhere near comparable to downtown Raleigh. I find that almost insulting. .....

Please don't take this tone here. If you think someone is posting to deliberately insult you then think again. If you have an issue with a forumer then just PM one of us and we will deal with it if there is something to deal with. Else, please just stick to the discussion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please don't take this tone here. If you think someone is posting to deliberately insult you then think again. If you have an issue with a forumer then just PM one of us and we will deal with it if there is something to deal with. Else, please just stick to the discussion.

I'm sorry, but that's how I take it! Trying to belittle a fellow city, by saying something so vague comes off as insulting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm sorry, but that's how I take it! Trying to belittle a fellow city, by saying something so vague comes off as insulting.
Well... that is your issue then as I read through that post and didn't see anything wrong with it. As admin of this site, I have seen my share of insults and I can tell the posts here are not even in that galaxy. If you are unable to control your emotions then I recommend that you just avoid this conversation as I am not going to have it turned into a city vs city pissing contest.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not trying to turn this into a versus thread, for the simple fact that Charlotte is one of the crown jewels of our state.

I think I already stated that earlier. I don't know why you're taking this out of proportion, when this was just a discussion about stats. Calling Raleigh's DT a midtown suburb is ridiculous, i am sorry there is definately something wrong with that.

My apologies, if you took my statements personally. I just feel every city should be represented as accurately as possible on this board.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
  • 4 months later...

http://demog.state.nc.us/

I know this is old but have you guys ever wonder what the new projections should look like when 2010 comes around.... I understand Charlotte/Raleigh are the powerhouses of NC but "the Triad" & "Lower Cape Fear Region" is booming! Even the Fayetteville Area is guaranteed some positive growth.

Maybe 2030 projections could reach 14 million.... Its funny how NC sleeps on the growth of the Fayetteville Region

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://demog.state.nc.us/

I know this is old but have you guys ever wonder what the new projections should look like when 2010 comes around.... I understand Charlotte/Raleigh are the powerhouses of NC but "the Triad" & "Lower Cape Fear Region" is booming! Even the Fayetteville Area is guaranteed some positive growth.

Maybe 2030 projections could reach 14 million.... Its funny how NC sleeps on the growth of the Fayetteville Region

It will be interesting.

I'd predict the very obvious: if Wilmington and High Point haven't already become the 8th and 9th NC cities to hit 100,000 (they have, or haven't, depending upon the source consulted, none of whom are absolutely definititve), they will by 2010.

The 10th largest will continue to switch off between Greenville and Asheville, both of whom will hit 80K by 2010, perhaps more. Too early to tell what the 10th 100K city in NC will be; I'd bet Greenville is about a decade away from the mark, but there are a lot of variables in the economy of that region, so it could end up being Concord or Asheville, 10-15 years down the road.

I'd peg Raleigh as 6 years from the 1/2 million mark.

I think the growth rates projected (by the demog office) for Alamance and Gaston Counties might be a touch conservative, for a few reasons. I think they are about right on in most other locations. Watch the rural counties on I-40 between Raleigh and Wilmington - what we are seeing now in Johnson County will start to happen soon in Pender as well.

It will be interesting - and perhaps dismaying - to watch the development of exurban counties. I don't forsee much growth in the northern (VA border) Triad/Triangle counties (except perhaps in Granville and Stokes) - most of the growth - and spawling up - will move S and E, with Alamance, Chatham, Lee, Harnett and Johnson immediately in the line of fire. Alamance and to some extent Chatham are the links between Triad and Triangle; this will become more obvious. An exurban uptick into Wilson and Nash would drastically worsen Triangle sprawl, but it could happen. Water supplies and air quality may become the issues that would modify or reverse this trend.

Fayetteville's exurban development (there is some) will shift into Hoke and Harnett. Harnett is another of those link counties - on the divide between two urban areas; numbers are forecast to go way up there.

The others to watch are Rowan and Davidson - again, link counties. Salisbury is at the 1/2way point between downtown Greensboro and Charlotte (45 miles either direction), and looking at those demo projections, there's an interesting increase forecast in Rowan and Davidson. It's not a rapid increase, but the very slow and steady growth in those counties is very slowly starting to curve upwards; I would guess that we'll see that rise gradually accelerate. Those counties could be great beneficiaries of improved passenger rail in central NC - it's still a long and unpleasant car commute, but rail could make them both a lot more attractive, if other assets are also improved along the way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.ncatlasrevisited.org/. This website has some noteworthy information on the population shifts that are going on in the state right now. The norhteastern counties that are not bound the Atlantic are losing poulation at an alarming rate. The only counties in the northeast that are growing are included in VA/Hampton Roads MSA, Carteret, New Hanover and Brunswick county. Those counties are growing at a rate comparable to the Piedmont counties. Especially Brunswick who is probably benefiting from being sandwhiched between Wilmington and Myrtle Beach/Grand strand MSA.

I am particularly curious about the Alamance-Orange county connection. As it stands this "last link" in the chain is worth watching because if major developments pop up along 40/85 then there will be a continuous link of population from northern Johnston county to Forsyth. Mini "mega" region has a chance to happen before the Charlotte-Greensboro link up simply because of the fact that Burlingtons development stretches east and west only leaving the eastern Alamance/west Orange county as the last vestige of undeveloped land between the Triad and Triangle. However most of the population will parallel the interstate much like I-95 from Wilmingtin DE to the Jersey Turnpike all the way up to New Brunswick.

The main thing I got out of the pop. data and maps is that NC metros are finally urbanizing. Much of it from domestic migration and out of state influx. What is encouraging that the major investments (foreign and domestic) are happening in the cities but mainly in the large metros. Now we see how major urban metro area where built in other states when the top tier cities held major industrial and manufacturing clout. While NC remained a rural ag dominated state. There was no reason before for someone to pick up and move to Raleigh,Greensboro,Winston or Charlotte when jobs were readily available in the immediate area. With the fall tobacco,funriture and textiles the rural area cannot support the populace so now the big 4(5-Wilmington) can finally urbanize and the state can now be taken out of the agricultural widespread population disperment category. As NC inches closer to that 12-13 million mark that it is projected to be in a few decades most of that growth will be in the 5 to 6 urbanized areas. All I can say NCDOT get ready for a serious wake up call.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.ncatlasrevisited.org/. This website has some noteworthy information on the population shifts that are going on in the state right now. The norhteastern counties that are not bound the Atlantic are losing poulation at an alarming rate. The only counties in the northeast that are growing are included in VA/Hampton Roads MSA, Carteret, New Hanover and Brunswick county. Those counties are growing at a rate comparable to the Piedmont counties. Especially Brunswick who is probably benefiting from being sandwhiched between Wilmington and Myrtle Beach/Grand strand MSA.

Mainly motivated by curiosity, I've started following the situation in NE NC. I've lived in Charlotte (18 yrs), Boone (12 yrs) and Chapel Hill (8 yrs), but have had close friends from pretty much every one of the 15 (or so) laregst cities in the state, and have travelled NC from end to end extensively. I think the coastal plain - E NC - is a beautiful, beautiful place, and not just along the immediate coast. The flat landscape lacks the drama of the mountains, but its' vastness is impressive - to me - in a similar way. So I am quite bothered by the downturn in fortunes in an area that I feel some attachment to.

I have no idea what could be done to reverse this - I recall reading a series on this in the News & Observer a few years back, and they quoted someone from the Kinston chamber of commerce bemoaning the brain drain to the big metros in the state. A similar phenomena began - on a much larger scale - on the high plains in the 1930s, and hasn't stopped yet, and a lot of time and energy is being devoted towards possible solutions.

One of which we may be witnessing in Greensburg, KA. Greensburg lost population for decades, only to then be more or less completely flattened by a tornado last May. The mayor has outlined a rather bold vision of rebuilding the entire town as the first completely 'green' town in the country, and in a place with very little left to lose, the locals have jumped on board. And now the idea - which was initially rebuffed by FEMA - has attracted some strong business interest. Now it's way too early to see if they can pull this off, but it's a very bold idea, and getting people behind it has drawn worthwhile interest. So - part of the solution (back in E NC) might involve thinking way, way outside the box.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.