Marion county outgrowing Duval?

[NoFxfan]

http://www.eflorida.com/profiles/

The link has many stats about each county in the state. I was checking out some of the growth rates, and since 2003(I assume that is what that means), Marion county has had a net migration of +7461, compared to Duval's +6553. Is this right? Really, what is there in Marion that is so appealing? Ocala? Maybe all the northerners are retiring to Ocala..... if that's the case, they can outgrow us all they want

Also, It shows Dade county with a -17,563 net migration since 2003. Why does everyone associate Miami with having a huge boom right now, when these numbers totally contradict that?

[Urban_Legend]

Yeah, those Miami numbers are weird. I hope there'll be a population left to support all this new residential construction. And I'm sure Marion will never actually surpass Duval, they're probably just having a growth spurt. Maybe that's where all the Miami people are moving to, lol.

[bobliocatt]

I have no idea where these numbers are coming from. The numbers for April 1, 2004, look completely. For example, a year ago the city of Jax had a population of 795,985, up from 735,617 in 2000. The stats also show that Duval has gained 61,595, Marion 34,401 and Miami-Dade 126,039 from the 2000 Census to the April 1, 2004 estimate.

www.state.fl.us/edr/population/2004OfficialEstimate.pdf

[RiversideGator]

It could be net domestic migration, which excludes international in-migration. This would account for the difference in Dade (it is growing in absolute numbers, but native born Americans may be leaving for Broward and points north). This is my guess. Still, the numbers seem low for Duval. Or, it could just be erroneous BS.

[Aessotariq]

RiversideGator is entirely correct. Miami-Dade County's out-migration numbers reflect domestic migration out of Dade and into Broward, Palm Beach, or elsewhere. At the same time, those people who are lost to Broward and elsewhere are replaced by immigration from outside the US. This "exodus" has been happening since the 80s, perhaps earlier, and was accelerated by Hurricane Andrew. Natural population growth and immigration have been keeping Dade's population growth up.

Having family in Marion County, I can tell you that all the major growth is outside of Ocala (or "Slow-cala", if you prefer). They are catering to retirees, although there are many families moving in as well, as reflected by its overcrowded schools. The Villages has expanded into Sumter and Marion counties, where they have built a sprawling tract development in the southern portion of the county. There are other retirement communities in the areas southwest and northwest of Ocala. For families, they are lured by the cheap housing costs, where you can still get a decent sized house with a big yard for under $100,000, something that could easily cost $300-500k here in South Florida.

And I'm sure Marion will never actually surpass Duval, they're probably just having a growth spurt.

Marion County caters to low density sprawl and horse farms -- I don't see them exceeding Duval by a long shot, unless they build out the entire county and the Feds suddenly decided to let them pave over the Ocala National Forest.

The Ocala Star-Banner featured an article on Marion County's population growth, noting that the county is expected to reach the 300,000 mark very soon, if it hasn't done so already.

[vicupstate]

It will be interesting to see if Duval will reach 1,000,000 by 2010. It should reach about 930,000 at the current pace, but that could speed up.

[Viper]

I've calculated just over 900k myself since 2000 but the recent annual increase may increase that to about 950k. 1 million is unlikely by 2010 but other counties saw explosions that could do the same here and Jax is poised to have one.

I'm calculating Jax to have 865-870k by 2010 meaning it will move ahead of Detroit if it continues going down and just on the heals of San Jose. By 2012, if all current paces continue, Jax will be the 10th largest city in the US.