The Vue

[Spartan]

I think that given the type of structure and materials they used, it would be several decades before this building fell into such a state of disrepair that it would need to be demoed (eg: Detroit). The units will sell eventually- though it is surprising that they aren't coming off of the prices a little just to get people in the building.

[SmellyCat]

I think that given the type of structure and materials they used, it would be several decades before this building fell into such a state of disrepair that it would need to be demoed (eg: Detroit). The units will sell eventually- though it is surprising that they aren't coming off of the prices a little just to get people in the building.

It will likely take coming off existing prices a LOT to even get anyone remotely interested. I think, given the bleak outlook for home prices in the next several years (flat at best) that it will take many years to fill this puppy up. There aren't even enough tenants in there now to create a condo association, so who knows if upkeep is even being tended to adequately. I doubt anything more than the bare minimum is being done. Just look at what has happened to similar condo buildings in Miami without condo assns.

Not sure how long the lender will let the developer carry this and I have no idea what the developers carrying cost is, but given the size of the building I'm sure it's not peanuts. Unless we see a miraculous and quick recovery in the economy, I can only assume the bank/lender will eventually take control of the building. Maybe they'll convert it to apartments since that sector has recovered nicely.

[HopHead]

If I'm not mistaken they have until the end of 2012 to sell a certain % of units (may even be all of them) before the bank would consider taking ownership. The best thing that could happen to this building, IMO and it wouldn't make the current owners happy, is if the Vue went into a similar situation with the Park where it was foreclosed on and could be auctioned off for pennies on the dollar. That way someone could come in and buy it cheap and be able to afford to sell the units for less. Of course, if the situation improves there in the next 1.5 years, it's all for naught.

[Bearcat]

The Vue obviously won't be demolished and it certainly won't be converted to a hotel or some other use. The only problem with the Vue is that it was priced during a time when condo values were generally 25-35% above where they are today. The foreclosure process (slow and inefficient as it is) ultimately remedies this and prices come down to meet demand. Regardless of whether it is the developer or the bank, at some point the weight of enormouns carrying expenses and the futility of continuing to hold out for unrealistic premiums will become obvious to one or both parties and they will react accordingly. The AJ almendingers of the world (rich inexperienced buyers that want what they want right now regardless of the pricing risk) have become a very endangered species and this is a good thing. As long as those types show up and pay the old prices (or prices adjusted down but not enough to be sustainable) the developers/lenders will sit tight and wait for the well of stupidity to run dry. Again, judging from the inactivty at the register of deeds AJ appears to be an outlier so I think another month or two of "crickets" in the sales office will bring about change (by someone).

Existing Vue residents and those in other projects throughout downtown understandably want to see condo closing prices increasing again month to month. Unfortunately, normal price appreciation will not be sustainable until the Vue (and other similar projects) take the right down necessary to get supply and demand back in balance again. For example, if Vue is priced 30% above the intersection of those lines on a graph then (assuming 3% appreciation is historically sustainable) then (assuming normal economic times) it will take about 10 years for the Vue to seem like a good deal again to educated buyers. This is a somewhat academic explantation but I think it might help explain why so many developers/lenders eventually capitulate to market forces once the benefit of some time helps them see where they are.

Here is a link to a gorgeous project in Bellevue, WA (just outside of Seattle) that experienced a similar fate of terrible timing: http://www.stroupecondoblog.com/2011/02/bellevue-towers-%E2%80%93-smooth-sailing-in-a-new-direction/

This broker's webpage tells the story of how the project went from the developer to the lender and how the pricing changed (30% cuts) to increase demand again (albeit at a very slow pace) for the towers. Both the Vue and Bellevue are luxury projects but having toured both there is no question that Bellevue is at a different level of quality. If the Vue is class A I'd say Bellevue is either AA or AAA. Keep that in mind as you consider how the adjusted pricing there compares with that of the Vue.

[kermit]

The CBJ is reporting that the developer has cut prices on 10 units. I just skimmed the article but the price cuts did not impress, but at least its a start.

http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/blog/real_estate/2011/07/keep-an-eye-on-the-vues-prices.html?ed=2011-07-22&s=article_du&ana=e_du_pub

[go_vertical]

I don't know. Up to $100,000 off original asking price on a few of those units isn't too bad. Units are not going to be cheap in this building. I've never been inside, but it certainly appears to be very nice. This location should be one of the premiere addresses in uptown by now. What doesn't impress me is the fact that they are only discounting ten units. I am pretty sure that if this experiment results in a few closings then we'll see another batch of units getting the same treatment.

[SmellyCat]

I don't know. Up to $100,000 off original asking price on a few of those units isn't too bad. Units are not going to be cheap in this building. I've never been inside, but it certainly appears to be very nice. This location should be one of the premiere addresses in uptown by now. What doesn't impress me is the fact that they are only discounting ten units. I am pretty sure that if this experiment results in a few closings then we'll see another batch of units getting the same treatment.

I think the prices need to drop more. Not enough of a risk premium is built into the price. For someone to take a leap of faith on a building that has 10 occupied units requires more attractive pricing because at the levels they are offering, there is still likely more downside than upside. Not to mention that I still don't know many banks amenable to offering mortgages on condo towers that are 5% full, so a buyer would likely have to come with lots of cash in hand.

[sleightofhand]

I was really impressed with my most recent tour. I got some great pictures and will post when I get around to it. The new prices are already being received well by the clients I've spoken with. The 2/2 especially are comparable with the Avenue and Trademark. In my opinion they will move these units. I listed just a few below to give an idea.

1/1.5

1025 sqft $299,925

996 sqft $342,425

2/2

1137 sqft $349,900

1368 sqft $359,900

[krazeeboi]

I'm pretty sure the prices are reversed for the 1/1.5 units.

[sleightofhand]

I'm pretty sure the prices are reversed for the 1/1.5 units.

I double checked and those are the correct square footages with those prices. The smaller unit with the higher price faces the city which is why it's more expensive.

[Urbanity]

Charlotte Roller Girls are going to repel down the VUE to raise money for Special Olympics!

http://www.charlotte...t-13-home-bout/

[SmellyCat]

Federal judge ruling on the Vue that could have far reaching negative effects for the future of high rise condo projects in N.C.....

http://cltdevelopment.blogspot.com/2011/11/vue-buyers-win-deposit-back-in-ruling.html#storylink=misearch

[Spartan]

I heard one of the segway tour guys say that there are about 20 units that have been sold...

[southslider]

Would be nice if Fannie and Freddie wouldn't see condos in a building shared by apartments as a huge risk. Then maybe, lower floors of the Vue could go apartments without risking future purchaser financing for upper floor condos.

[kermit]

I doubt this to be the case. Typically, the developer doesn't pay HOA fees on unsold units until the project has been turned over to the Association, which usually occurs after about 75% of the units have closed or a period of a few years passes. Until then, new buyers pay HOA fees and the developer funds the difference out of his project budget. So, if the building continues to be staffed, utilitites are functioning and the property seems reasonably well maintained, the developer's budget is still funding this. I'm sure the bank loan included a line item to cover these costs for some reasonable period of time. Interest rates being so much lower than what the bank probably required them to assume has probably created a cushion that, in effect has probably bought more time to get the project turned over. But even when there isn't any $'s remaining in the loan the developer will have to fund this cost (invest new equity) or risk being pushed out immediately by the bank. And even then, the bank will almost certainly fund that cost to protect the value of it's collateral and ensure the units can be sold. There's no question though that at some point several hundred thousand $'s of carry each month for HOA and taxes will pressure the developer, the bank or both to capitulate to the pricing demands of the market.

The lights in the crown of the Vue have been off the last few times I have driven by after dark (over the past 10 days generally around 8:30). I am probably reading too much into this but it makes me wonder if the COA / builder is down to its last few bucks?

[kermit]

The Observer is reporting some activity among debt holders at the Vue. The headline suggests the possible new debt holders want to switch to rental, but there is no indication of how this would occur.

http://cltdevelopmen...rning-into.html

And the denial of the change from the developer was published a couple hours later:

http://cltdevelopmen...tower-wont.html

EDIT: And the much more informative version from the Business Journal: http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/blog/real_estate/2012/03/vue-lender-marketing-loan.html?page=all

The story cites sources saying the project is now valued at $110 million (about $270,000 per unit). CBJ says that 18 (of 409) units have closed.

Edited March 9, 2012 by kermit

[dubone]

I hope they do make them apartments. Having that many units unoccupied for this long is really not good. I know the developer has some pride and money on the line, but that seems like the only viable result unless they fire-sale the units in a tacky way like Garrison is.

[Prodev]

The junior debt of $130 million is currently being marketed for sale. there was a forebearance agreement in place which was defaulted on. The buyer will likely also buy the senior debt and go through foreclosure then convet the remaining 389 units to apartments.

[dubone]

Is that with knowledge that the developer has done something to warrant a foreclosure? It seems their response to the O was that they were not in default.

Also, where is Charlotte these days on the luxury apartment market? Will this end up needing to come in at a rental rate that ends up bringing down rents in town or does this fit into a higher category that seems to be healthy these days? I could almost see some of the people who reserved condos but didn't close to be potential renters in the building.

[Prodev]

The loan is matured and therefore in default. They've already gotten a 1 year extension which expired in Feb.

Rents here will likely be a new high for the market, so no risk of bringing down numbers. It will likely take a while to absorb all those units being that there is a limited renter pool that can pay the numbers these will likley rent for. They're also much larger on average than a property built as rental apartments.

[kermit]

Also, where is Charlotte these days on the luxury apartment market? Will this end up needing to come in at a rental rate that ends up bringing down rents in town or does this fit into a higher category that seems to be healthy these days?

While its not quite the equivalent pricepoint, the Ashton did very very well with the luxury rental market. I believe it has been near 100% occupancy for over a year.

[dubone]

It would be rich irony if they finally got them converted to apartments just as the apartment market turns out to be a bubble (I'm not saying it is, just hypothetically).

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46707036

[sleightofhand]

The VUE has finally been purchased. Not sure if this was the same group I was told about last week but they are definitely looking to re-market and sell as condos. I'll be really interested to see how long this process takes them and extremely interested at what effect this has on the Uptown condo market.

http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/blog/real_estate/2012/04/vue-charlotte-debt-bought-northwood.html

[kermit]

It appears that the foreclosure process has begun:

http://www.bizjourna...r&ed=2012-04-25

A court hearing is set for May 21 to determine the fate of the luxury uptown condo tower

Edited April 25, 2012 by kermit

[dubone]

So the debt was bought for a percentage of the balance by Northwood, and MCL will get foreclosed on. Then there is the construction loan to Dunn Southeast that they are in default, but that McLean also has some personal collateral toward?

It seems like it will be a mess for a bit, but some of the losses are already working their way through the system. Once the legal mess goes away, it seems destined for apartments.

One thing that is the height of irony, is that 210 Trade, The Park, and others all were not completed, and the buyers lost their deposits. The Vue, however, did get completed and yet the buyers are getting their deposits back. It is astoundingly bad luck for the developer to have made the project happen, but at the worst possible timing.