The Vue

[monsoon]

As to the earlier comment about prices, that didn't seem to hurt the Radcliffe at all. A number of those condos are closing in on a million bucks.

[Norm2]

The Vue fireworks show was actually pretty impressive!

[MZT]

Carrying over some of the chatter from the "Highrises" thread, about rumors that the Vue is selling slowly / selling OK... I'll hazard a guess here ,that what happened was that an elite group of buyers does exist, that was willing to pay $400sf.

But that market probably wasn't very deep, and now the sales team faces the more challenging task of selling the remaining 3/4 (or whatever) of the building, to the more typical-pocketed crowd.

Perhaps the other rumors of it growing to 58 stories were based on the success fo the initial sales.

[atlrvr]

Well, at least one more well heeled buyer is out there, as I saw that a Carolina Panther was checking out the model of downtown with one of the sales staff, when I walked by on my lunch break today.

[Germaine]

I think what our fervent friend is saying is that there are thousands of people in this city, and moving to this city who can afford those prices. There are many of those that are willing to trade a large lake house, or a large country club house, for a slightly smaller home downtown. Many, in fact, have been making that trade off all over the country.

This project has an incredible view, it is in a prestigious old neighborhood with Victorian-era homes, it is blocks from the workplaces of most of the highest paid jobs in the state, and is blocks away from much of the city's best night life and cultural amenities.

This project only needs to find a few hundred people who are willing to buy into that value proposition.

However, I think they'd do better if they dropped prices a little bit.

I agree, prices could come down some, but I think it may be more than that, and, I know I'm not comparing apples to apples so forgive my rant.

For now, as a developer of single-family projects in suburban (anti-urban) locations, our company will sink millions into a project before the first house is built. I understand that building a condo tower (like The Vue) is perhaps more expensive to build up front, but even we will start construction before units are sold. Right now, we have over $7,000,000 worth of unsold "inventory" in a neighborhood that sold 156 units last year (our average price is $625K for an average of 2600 square feet).

I guess the point is, if I'm a consumer, I want to see product before buying. If a tower in the center of Charlotte isn't selling "quickly" my guess is that it isn't because of a softening of demand, but a result of the reluctance on the part of buyers to purchase something - even with fancy sales offices - "sight unseen".

You all know, the trend in residential development is quickly moving toward "access living" - living in a SF home or condo or apartment - with at least some of our daily trips within walking distance of the home. I have faith that buildings like "The Vue" are inevitable in rapidly evolving cities like Charlotte and even in older - slower growing - cities like my own.

I hope that The Vue gets built. I hope they can make the numbers work to get it built with only 50% of the units pre-sold because I predict that once it's under construction, sales will continue and strengthen as it nears completion.

Edited January 8, 2006 by Germaine

[atlrvr]

The interesting thing is that it's really the lender's that control the buildings fate. They are the ones that set how many units (if any) need to be sold before they will make the construction loan. A proven developer selling an affordable product (Novare/Avenue) was able to get lenders to loan before they opened a sales center based on their previous success and relatively low price point.

As far as single-family suburban product, lenders will throw money at these projects since they have been proven winners since the 1950s. Right now, Manhattan is the only market in the country where almost every single high-rise condo building is built before pre-sells, and this is based on that it is a long-proven product type in that market.

I believe as the trend towards urban living continues across the country, that eventually lenders will be more likely to lend with few to no pre-sales, but as of course, the capital outlay from developers is "all-at-once" with no string of income in a high-rise building, so inheritently, the less-capitalized developer will be more limited.

[Germaine]

....which only goes to suggest that it has little to do with demand at his point in the residential game. Eventually, I hope, all the lenders buying up homes in Myers Park, Dilworth, Elizabeth, and South Park for $250 a square foot will begin to realize that the market really is dominated by two groups: Those who want to live in traditional pre-, and near-, World War 2 "suburban" neighborhoods (not to be confused with the post 1960's "anti-urban" crap thrown up in corn fields) and those who want zero-lot line, no lot line, "downtown" buildings.

The true measure, I think, for residential preference - and this is a GROSS simplification - won't necessarily be "can I walk to work", it will be: "can I walk to the grocery store".

Edited January 8, 2006 by Germaine

[stateman99]

Hey, i just want to add my 2 cents worth. I was just at a party and talking to someone who works for The Charlotte Business journal. She told me that contrary to popular belief on this site, that the Vue is selling units well and that if all goes as it has they will break ground in March. She also said, that the Epicentre will be starting marketing and selling "very soon". She actually has already bought a place at the Vue.

[dubone]

Dang, how much does CBJ pay their people?

I'm not so sure that it is really popular belief that they are not selling well. I think there have just been a couple posts that say they have inside knowledge, and they've sold less than 1/3 of their units.

It is good to hear news to the contrary, though.

If there was consensus that there was significant risk that the Vue wouldn't happen, I think there would be some Urban Planet prayer vigils set up .

[stateman99]

She does o.k. Here husband does real well. hahaha. They aren't even going to live there. They are going to rent it out or resell it. I told her about this site so hopefully she will come on it soon.

[Germaine]

btw - sorry about adding the 210 trade/park info here, but the main point I was trying to talk about was the construction of the Vue.

No problem, great to read what you were able to find out about The Vue. Unfortunately, though, I think the Biz Journal does fall prey to a bit of hyperbole.

Dang, how much does CBJ pay their people?

I'm not so sure that it is really popular belief that they are not selling well. I think there have just been a couple posts that say they have inside knowledge, and they've sold less than 1/3 of their units.

It is good to hear news to the contrary, though.

If there was consensus that there was significant risk that the Vue wouldn't happen, I think there would be some Urban Planet prayer vigils set up .

Gott im himmel! Isn't that the truth!!!!!!

Edited January 8, 2006 by Germaine

[monsoon]

She does o.k. Here husband does real well. hahaha. They aren't even going to live there. They are going to rent it out or resell it. I told her about this site so hopefully she will come on it soon.

There in lies the problem with a lot of these units. They are being bought and sold for investment purposes, not places to live for the individual. If the bubble pops, you will see this demand disappear. It's already started in places such as Boston.

[monsoon]

Eventually, I hope, all the lenders buying up homes in Myers Park, Dilworth, Elizabeth, and South Park for $250 a square foot will begin to realize that the market really is dominated by two groups: Those who want to live in traditional pre-, and near-, World War 2 "suburban" neighborhoods (not to be confused with the post 1960's "anti-urban" crap thrown up in corn fields) and those who want zero-lot line, no lot line, "downtown" buildings.

Except in Charlotte/Mecklenburg the real estate market isn't dominated by these groups.

For example SouthPark on your list of desirable places is 100% "post 1960s anti-urban crap" as you put it. They did not clear those corn fields until the early 70s yet this is an example of a high demand area despite it being built around the automobile.

Lenders realize that in this county, the vast majority of home buyers looking for a place to live, (not house flippers) place crime and schools at the very top of their list. This is why you see most of the huge growth occuring in this county on the fringes of the city or out in the 6 towns surrounding the county. For example while downtown has added maybe 3000 new residents in the last 10 years, Ballentyne adds more than that every year.

I'm not saying this is good, but it is the reality of the situation in Mecklenburg.

[ElricSeven]

She does o.k. Here husband does real well. hahaha. They aren't even going to live there. They are going to rent it out or resell it. I told her about this site so hopefully she will come on it soon.

I hope they like subsidizing the rent, because rental rates around here won't cover half of that mortgage. I guess resale value might go up, but there's nothing to stop the next condo tower from grabbing that high end spot with something better.

Seems pretty risky. I hope there aren't a lot of people planning this with the Vue. Or, maybe I do and then I can buy one at 50% off when the all go up for sale at once at the same time as interest rates.

[ngp]

She actually has already bought a place at the Vue.

Hmm. Let's hope she's right about the strong sales and that she (or her husband, rather) didn't just fall into the Vue Girls' trap.

[Miesian Corners]

^And man-made traps at that.

[CLTfanatic]

Where are there numbers about how the Vue is selling?

[Hotlanta]

Where are there numbers about how the Vue is selling?

I don't think we know yet, do we?

[Charlotteman]

Is the building part of the Vue going to be about as tall as BofA Plaza, then taller with spires?

[unccmyway]

nah...it'll probably be about as tall as the Hearst tower...spires included.

[dubone]

The Vue has put in for a rezoning. I think this is definitely a sign of progress.

http://www.charmeck.org/Departments/Planni...ns/2006-055.htm

[stateman99]

The Vue has put in for a rezoning. I think this is definitely a sign of progress.

http://www.charmeck.org/Departments/Planni...ns/2006-055.htm

Well, this is a good sign. I want to know if there is anyone on this site in the know about sales or anything else. Is anyone holding out? I promise if they post on here I will keep any good news a secret.

[dubone]

Ha! There are two or three people on here that are in the know, and (like most of us) are good employees and don't divulge trade secrets.

I've talked to a couple people who claim to be double hearsay insiders (if that really is credential) and say it is going well.

I have said this before, as have others, the Vue's prices naturally lead to slow sales, as they take just a sliver of the market at any point in time. Slow and steady wins the race, though, and as long as they are patient, they will end up making numbers and building the project. They have always had a much more patient timeline than other projects, and haven't needed to do any fire sales.

Given the vast experience of the developer and the budgets that have already been put into marketing and design, I think this project is fairly close to a sure thing, even if timelines extend.

[rockhilljames]

Anyone notice the site plan gave a height of 724'?

[atlrvr]

Good find....I skimmed it quickly and didn't see the height. I would think without spires, that it's got to be in the 640'-660' range....hopefully it will hit 662'....a legitament 200 meters without spires.