The Vue

[Andyc545]

^Today, I can see the forms peeking above the treeline. Awesome.

Yeah- fortunately this is at least one committed project that we can have fun watching through these depressing times. They seem to be quite optimistic that by the time this tower is completed, 2010, that the market will have gone through the worst and we will begin seeing prosperity around this time once again, leaving a lot of people looking for condos and homes. Hope it happens. Hopefully that will jump kick another wave of condo outlookers. And hopefully we see a large company to come and fill Wachovia's shoes.

Edited October 1, 2008 by Andyc545

[monsoon]

.... They seem to be quite optimistic that by the time this tower is completed, 2010, that the market will have gone through the worst and we will begin seeing prosperity around this time once again, leaving a lot of people looking for condos and homes. ....

It's hard to accurately predict the future and I can't say they are wrong, but I would say that 2010 is very optimistic that Charlotte can again begin to support a building boom that was supported by so much irresponsible lending. It's clear now that what we have seen in downtown was based on unsustainable levels of leverage that are not going to exist again for the foreseeable future.

It is noteworthy, that even though this project was announced 3 years ago, and is actually under construction, they admitted in the paper today they are only 50% sold. I believe it was said a few months ago that it was 60%. If these are accurate numbers that would indicate that people have been walking away from their contracts for whatever reason.

Skyscrapers like the Vue are also very unsustainable from an environmental point of view. It requires a huge amount of energy to sustain one of these kinds of buildings when you consider that it extends hundreds of feet in the air and the large amount of glass is not nearly as efficient as a heavily insulated wall that you might find in a town home. My guess is that once the economy does finally recover, people will be moving toward more sustainable structures than something like The Vue.

[SmellyCat]

It is noteworthy, that even though this project was announced 3 years ago, and is actually under construction, they admitted in the paper today they are only 50% sold. I believe it was said a few months ago that it was 60%. If these are accurate numbers that would indicate that people have been walking away from their contracts for whatever reason.

Ouch only 50%? Yeah I might expect that number to further shrink given what's going on with Wachovia. It's the investment banker types that were likely this building's main buyer base.

[schmopperX]

Yeah- fortunately this is at least one committed project that we can have fun watching through these depressing times.

I couldn't agree with that more. This will be somewhat of a distraction. I'm so glad this one is getting built and I don't believe it's as unsustainable as most might have you to believe. There has to be something said for density. Also I'm not two awful sure that having run the heating and cooling loads on this building you would come up with two different a load from 800,000 sq ft. of town homes, after all the largest load is usually the roof load which 90% of these units won't have. I'm reasonably sure the service size electrically wouldn't be too different, in fact it would be more efficient to put in the electrical infrastructure for this building vs. a town home community of equal square footage.

[monsoon]

^I would welcome any analysis that would prove that. In the South the issue is airconditioning and glass boxes get extremely hot. For number of people contained, skyscrapers have huge carbon footprints. A 50 story tower requires massive amounts of raw materials and energy to build. Once completed there is a great deal of energy needed to heat and cool, run elevators, pumps to move water and air up 50 stories, etc. They also have the same social issues as suburbs in the manner in which they are exclusive and remove people from the city. In return they offer convenience and prestige. I do admit that Charlotte is still hung up on the prestige thing, but if you got to more socially mature cities, the most desirable places are town home and lowrise flats communities.

There are attempts to build a so called "green" skyscraper, but that is basically and admission as to this issue with these kind of buildings.

[BUILDIT]

^I would welcome any analysis that would prove that. In the South the issue is airconditioning and glass boxes get extremely hot. For number of people contained, skyscrapers have huge carbon footprints. A 50 story tower requires massive amounts of raw materials and energy to build. Once completed there is a great deal of energy needed to heat and cool, run elevators, pumps to move water and air up 50 stories, etc. They also have the same social issues as suburbs in the manner in which they are exclusive and remove people from the city. In return they offer convenience and prestige. I do admit that Charlotte is still hung up on the prestige thing, but if you got to more socially mature cities, the most desirable places are town home and lowrise flats communities.

There are attempts to build a so called "green" skyscraper, but that is basically an admission as to this issue with these kind of buildings.

skyscrapers remove people from the city? I dont see the difference in going up 50 floors versus three, once your up your in your home and off the city street anyway...

as far as the whole sustainability thing, I think you are overly optimistic if you actually think US home buying choices and building will SIGNIFICANTLY change in two years. There are always going to be little very green communities, but overall people love to live in excess. Now, I think slight changes will be made, green is selling so developers will do it, but not enough to make projects like this unprofitable.

[monsoon]

^ I never said people didn't like excess nor did I say there would be changes to buying habits in 2 years. I did say that more 50 story skyscrapers won't be in Charlotte's future simply because people can't afford them anymore. As mentioned just above, The Vue has only managed to sell 50% of its units in 3 years which in Charlotte, is not a good record at all. It's not going to get any better.

In regards to the social aspects to skyscrapers, I am not even going to try to get into that here so I retract that statement. I and just a few others have been arguing on this site for years, this downturn was coming causing a halt to highrise building, that was based on fairly easy to understand economic numbers. There is no way that I'm gonna try to have that same discussion on a more abstract level about why skyscrapers are actually bad for good city living. The information is out there for anyone who is really interested or just go travel to a few places to see it first hand.

As an example, and not a good one, this is what happens when the higher is better concept is taken to an unreasonable extreme. It does however demonstrate the above. While the buildings are stunning, the living environment or rather lack of it, has created a dystopian depressing landscape. See here. But forget I said anything about it.

[Spartan]

Do you recall where that debate took place? It might be worth revisiting in the appropriate thread, as it is an intriguing argument.

[Charlotte_native]

The sky was falling during the S&L crisis as well.

[wheatie]

The sky was falling during the S&L crisis as well.

I heard an interesting comparison with the S&L crisis yesterday. "During the S&L crisis the problem was bad companies with good assets. In this current crisis, it is reversed."

[Norm2]

what is the S&L crisis?

[InitialD]

what is the S&L crisis?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_Loan_Crisis

[monsoon]

The sky was falling during the S&L crisis as well.

Not really. Apples and Oranges. The S&L crisis was a much smaller problem as it was limited to that type of financial institution and we were not being told that immanent financial meltdown was getting ready to happen. It was also a huge opportunity as this was when NCNB moved to take over the largest S&L in Texas that caused the formation of NationsBank. This event marked their rise to today's BofA.

In regards to the sky falling, we have two partially built skyscrapers in downtown with no indication at all when something might be done about it. Numerous other projects have been canceled, and there have been 8000 foreclosures in Charlotte so far this year. I always say the proof is in the pudding, so I don't think this is a case of chicken little running around because of an acorn.

[BUILDIT]

There is no way that I'm gonna try to have that same discussion on a more abstract level about why skyscrapers are actually bad for good city living. The information is out there for anyone who is really interested or just go travel to a few places to see it first hand.

As an example, and not a good one, this is what happens when the higher is better concept is taken to an unreasonable extreme. It does however demonstrate the above. While the buildings are stunning, the living environment or rather lack of it, has created a dystopian depressing landscape. See here. But forget I said anything about it.

that can definitely be true and I know you dont want to debate this here but I will just say, in a city like charlotte towers are not built to fill the entire lot in the same way that they are in say the lower east side... so either way the "urban fabric" is patchy in Charlotte whether or not the building is 8 stories or 50, even our most dense street, tryon, has plazas and lots of open space, but thats the business district so its a bit different

[InitialD]

that can definitely be true and I know you dont want to debate this here but I will just say, in a city like charlotte towers are not built to fill the entire lot in the same way that they are in say the lower east side... so either way the "urban fabric" is patchy in Charlotte whether or not the building is 8 stories or 50, even our most dense street, tryon, has plazas and lots of open space, but thats the business district so its a bit different

I see your point. I love the Vue, but at the same time I don't want Charlotte to become the Dubai of the South (see: 4 First Union, Trump Charlotte). Tokyo has best urban environment I've ever been in, and sure they have some nice clusters of skyscrapers, but the vast majority of their density is in the 10 to 12 floor range. If I had to choose, I'd pick some more great mid-rise, mixed use density growing in Southend, Elizabeth, Uptown, and NoDa over another Vue or two.

Edited October 3, 2008 by InitialD

[BUILDIT]

I see your point. I love the Vue, but at the same time I don't want Charlotte to become the Dubai of the South (see: 4 First Union, Trump Charlotte). Tokyo has best urban environment I've ever been in, and sure they have some nice clusters of skyscrapers, but the vast majority of their density is in the 10 to 12 floor range. If I had to choose, I'd pick some more great mid-rise, mixed use density growing in Southend, Elizabeth, Uptown, and NoDa over another Vue or two.

God so would i... having a great, walkable midrise neighborhood would be incredible... anywhere from 3-8 floors with living retail in the bottom, those kinds of neighborhoods can exemplify urbanism at its best. But this is charlotte, and we paved over the neighborhoods that had potential to become that type of area long ago

the vue is cool, but really on a grandscale not all that interesting or unique compared to density... so basically ive full circled back to monsoons point, but for charlotte today, I will still take it, and i do not see the future in the creation of neighborhoods that we are talking about.

[monsoon]

... Tokyo has best urban environment I've ever been in, and sure they have some nice clusters of skyscrapers, but the vast majority of their density is in the 10 to 12 floor range. If I had to choose, I'd pick some more great mid-rise, mixed use density growing in Southend, Elizabeth, Uptown, and NoDa over another Vue or two.

Indeed the Tokyo metro proves my point exactly about supertall skyscrapers. Tokyo (and its greater metro) does not get credit that it deserves for great urban livability and I assume that's because it is very rare for a westerner to travel there. This is a city that was mostly rebuilt from scratch since WWII and they still managed to do it in a very human oriented fashion. Relative to the population there are very few skyscrapers and in fact the tallest skyscraper in the country, the Landmark Tower, is actually located in Yokohama.

For anyone who wants to truly see how a modern city should be built I would recommend a trip there. Tokyo itself can be overwhelming, but some out the outlying cities, such as Kamakura or Fujisawa should be the example that Charlotte follows in downtown and elsewhere. Once one takes a trip there, its easy to see how badly Charlotte is off the mark in it's notion of what constitutes good urban development. And I am talking about all of the new construction here since 2000.

BTW, the most coveted places to live in these Japanese cites, just like here, are low rises and single family detached homes. And there are a lot of them there, despite the population density, because the majority of the land there is not being used for automobiles. The higher parts of the buildings are the least desired.

[Charlotte_native]

In regards to the sky falling, we have two partially built skyscrapers in downtown with no indication at all when something might be done about it. Numerous other projects have been canceled, and there have been 8000 foreclosures in Charlotte so far this year. I always say the proof is in the pudding, so I don't think this is a case of chicken little running around because of an acorn.

And I agree with you. Day to day, and for the past couple of years, things have gotten progressively worse. My point was just that life goes on, projects move forward, get postponed, or get canned (see the cranes working all over the city as well as the vacant lots). This will pass, just like the S&L crisis, just like the Great Depression, and just like every other crisis that, during the time, people freaked and thought nothing will ever be the same. It won't be the same, but it will be just fine again one day -- construction will crank up again, and the financial crisis of 2008 will be a chapter. Everything goes in cycles and it is much easier to navigate through them if you keep that in mind. The 'Doomsdayers' don't like to look at it that way, but history proves it just like pudding.

The Vue for me is a great case-in-point. Delayed for a year or two -- that might be its saving grace. Were it being completed right now many buyers would likely be backing out or having trouble getting financing, as it is it will be done in two years -- maybe nothing will change by then, or just maybe we'll be in better shape.

Edited October 3, 2008 by Charlotte_native

[monsoon]

^I think you miss the point completely. The kinds of economic activity that made that kind of financing possible, isn't ever going to come back. Not, at least, until a few generations have passed and they turn around and repeat the mistakes made over the last decade or so. Just like this situation was basically a repeat of the 1920s.

[Charlotte_native]

^I think you miss the point completely. The kinds of economic activity that made that kind of financing possible, isn't ever going to come back. Not, at least, until a few generations have passed and they turn around and repeat the mistakes made over the last decade or so. Just like this situation was basically a repeat of the 1920s.

I didn't miss the point, I just respectfully disagree and neither of us will know who is right for years to come. We are both just making assumptions and predictions at this point.

[monsoon]

^What assumptions? The failure of the economy caused by unreasonable speculation and lending in regards to real estate is as real as it gets. Average adjusted household income is actually lower now than it was in 2000, yet until recently real estate has appreciated 87 or so percent during the same period. It doesn't take too much math to figure out this doesn't work especially when much of that wealth is only on paper.

But this says it better than I can. You might want to add another year on to it in the specific case of Charlotte.

[Charlotte_native]

^What assumptions?

The ones about the future what will or won't happen. They are just predictions and assumptions. None of us know any of that, we are all quite awake and aware of what is going on now. As far as i know they haven't created a reliable chrystal ball yet. Often it seems that statements are made that imply fact about what will or won't happen as a result of the current crisis regarding what will happen to the nation, the financial markets, uptown Charlotte, or the region. It is all just opinion, no matter how succinctly it is stated.

Back to the topic at hand: One fact, bad economy or not, The Vue is being built (as are a handful of other projects that didn't suddenly stop in their tracks because of this mess).

[ChiefJoJo]

I am not a skyscraper enthusiast, and thus not particularly inspired by projects like the Vue other than it's pure aesthetic value, but there is absolutely no argument to be made that high rise condos are somehow not sustainable or energy efficient compared to probably 90% of the housing stock that is currently available. If the Vue ends up being filled with, say, 600-800 residents, the chances are significantly increased that those residents (1) will make many trips by transit, biking or walking, rather than driving, (2) will use less energy per dwelling unit than the per capita average (probably significantly less) in Charlotte, and (3) will reduce demand for sprawl-inducing residential projects by the net effect of 600-800 people chosing to live Uptown over the less sustainable 'burbs. Bottom line, I would not want to live 50 stories up, but somebody obviously does, and the benefits of such a project far outweight the standard suburban alternative in almost every conceivable measure of energy use, carbon emissions, smart transportation, smart growth, etc.

What I think would be an improvement for Charlotte's long term sustainability would be to set height limits in parts of Uptown where there are none. The market could spread good urban growth around all the empty parking lots instead of all the landowners waiting decades for a huge high-rise payoff like the Vue or Trump, generating a race to suck up huge chunks of the marketplace in one swoop... but that's probably another story altogether and would probably never fly anyway.

[RiverwoodCLT]

The Vue progress 10/10/08

[Guest]

x

The Vue progress 10/10/0

Quiet huge if you ask me I can't believe how huge it is getting!