Predict the next census

[gvsusean]

gr should use eminent domain and just take land from wyo

[hood]

GR will probably not be at 300k for a very long time. Although, I beleive it will happen. Someday, maybe in 50 or 100 years we will begin to enter a real crunch for space and many of the inner cities will probably be little more than wastelands (much worse than now) and we will have to begin to rebuild our old core cities from the ground up, then they will likely focus on putting people into highrises or evn those city sized sky scrapers with thousands of residents who have everything they ever need in one building. But that is a long way off, probably not in my lifetime.

[GRDadof3]

GR will probably not be at 300k for a very long time. Although, I beleive it will happen. Someday, maybe in 50 or 100 years we will begin to enter a real crunch for space and many of the inner cities will probably be little more than wastelands (much worse than now) and we will have to begin to rebuild our old core cities from the ground up, then they will likely focus on putting people into highrises or evn those city sized sky scrapers with thousands of residents who have everything they ever need in one building. But that is a long way off, probably not in my lifetime.

[MJLO]

here's the thing about population trends Hood, and i'm sure you know this, They are never constant they change all the time. Detroit went from a city constantly gaining, if not exploding in population, to not being able to pay people to stay there. And now, when we've thought we've seen as many people as could possibly leave the city it keeps losing. Also it wasn't more than 50 years ago, that Phoenix wasn't more than a speck in the middle of the desert. Now has been growing at a dramatic rate. These things could all change there are mitigating factors to population growth. And While I don't see any possibility at all of GR reaching 300k in the next ten years. We have no Idea what the next 20 years will bring, things change sometimes over night when it comes to demographics. Thats why I don't trust estimates and projections, of these kind. I do feel that certain factors are in play, (and no i'm not refering to Project X.) that could lead to some real growth in this area for the next few decades.

My prediction,

2010 Grand Rapids city, 199,000

Kent County 610,000

Ottawa County 280,000

2020 Grand Rapids City 240,000 (unless for some reason annexation happens

Kent County 750,000

Ottawa County 440,000

[d59]

What's the big deal about the population. Aside from the extra tax revenue, it doesn't change anything. The city of London (UK)has only a few thousand people. Greater London has over 8 million people. I see Grand Rapids in much the same way. Building a cool central city is just an anchor for the whole metro area. The people are here for all intents and purposes. That's all that matters.

[RustTown]

MJLO, you really think Grand Rapids is going to add 50,000+ persons from 2010 to 2020? I just want to know what you are basing this on seeing as how you only predict a near neglible gain from 2000 to 2010. Barring annexation, do you expect Grand Rapids to be home to some new technology (like Detroit was with the automobile) that will brings in residents by the thousands? Do you expect a huge overhaul in zoning (i.e. allowing for smaller lots, less setbacks, more heights, less parking...) across the city to transform it to fit this many persons? I'm really thinking to add that many people you'd literally have to bulldoze entire square miles of singlefamily home neighborhoods to make this work seeing as how most Michigan cities are fully established and built out. Either that, or your see household sizes getting huge again with an average of 6-7 persons per household.

[Michi]

I'm optimistic downtown will continue to grow in many areas, but the city will float around the 200,000 mark. I wish the pop would jump up to around 215, but I can't imagine that happening at the next census. I'm willing to go as high as 206,000 and as low as 196,000.

[MJLO]

Lmichigan Posted Yesterday, 06:44 PM

MJLO, you really think Grand Rapids is going to add 50,000+ persons from 2010 to 2020? I just want to know what you are basing this on seeing as how you only predict a near neglible gain from 2000 to 2010. Barring annexation, do you expect Grand Rapids to be home to some new technology (like Detroit was with the automobile) that will brings in residents by the thousands? Do you expect a huge overhaul in zoning (i.e. allowing for smaller lots, less setbacks, more heights, less parking...) across the city to transform it to fit this many persons? I'm really thinking to add that many people you'd literally have to bulldoze entire square miles of singlefamily home neighborhoods to make this work seeing as how most Michigan cities are fully established and built out. Either that, or your see household sizes getting huge again with an average of 6-7 persons per household.

Lmich what i'm basing the growth on, for this decade, is the fact that it's three and a half years away from being over. Growth at this point has been stagnant if not at all. Over the next ten years however, I do strongly feel that alot of the factors that have been put in motion will be in full swing. The city of Grand Rapids is not Fully built out, of course you have to go south of 28th to still find open land, and yes I do believe that alot of the neighborhoods on the near west side could see redevelopement. Not to mention the untold number of vacant properties and surface lots in the heartside, will probabally get developed, barring any major changes in events. I understand what you are saying about cities being built out. But comparatively there are many cities that have much more density. I do think the city will start increasing it's density in coming years, especially in the core. I agree that my numbers may be a bit inflated, but I strongly feel that the city has room to grow. All the same, even if the city were to remain stagnant, I think it would come with out question, that the immediate metropolitan area, i.e. Kent county and western Ottawa County, will probabally continue to see growth, at least above %10.

[snoogit]

GR will probably not be at 300k for a very long time. Although, I beleive it will happen. Someday, maybe in 50 or 100 years we will begin to enter a real crunch for space and many of the inner cities will probably be little more than wastelands (much worse than now) and we will have to begin to rebuild our old core cities from the ground up, then they will likely focus on putting people into highrises or evn those city sized sky scrapers with thousands of residents who have everything they ever need in one building. But that is a long way off, probably not in my lifetime.

Suburbs are not growing.

If anything the trend is to move BACK into the city.

the future wont be old busted deserted city cores, but old busted, deserted city suburbs, filled with low to middle-low class residents much like it is in other countries today.

I see a revert to older ways of doing things, where people live in cities and travel out to work. Offices and factories will plow over the bungalows, and the McMansions, and people will live in the central core where retail, entertainment, etc will be a mainstay of the city.

[d59]

Suburbs are not growing.

If anything the trend is to move BACK into the city.

the future wont be old busted deserted city cores, but old busted, deserted city suburbs, filled with low to middle-low class residents much like it is in other countries today.

I see a revert to older ways of doing things, where people live in cities and travel out to work. Offices and factories will plow over the bungalows, and the McMansions, and people will live in the central core where retail, entertainment, etc will be a mainstay of the city.

For sure!

[GRDadof3]

Suburbs are not growing.

If anything the trend is to move BACK into the city.

the future wont be old busted deserted city cores, but old busted, deserted city suburbs, filled with low to middle-low class residents much like it is in other countries today.

I see a revert to older ways of doing things, where people live in cities and travel out to work. Offices and factories will plow over the bungalows, and the McMansions, and people will live in the central core where retail, entertainment, etc will be a mainstay of the city.

Keep dreamin snoogit. As much as urban areas are seeing rebirth, I don't see anything on the horizon that will slow suburban growth anywhere in the country. If anything, it will probably get worse, even with urban growth boundaries.

[Phizzy]

Suburbs are not growing.

If anything the trend is to move BACK into the city.

                                 Population

2000 2004 Change

------- ------- ------ -----

Caledonia township 8,964 10,578 1,614 18.0%

Ada township 9,882 11,586 1,704 17.2%

Jamestown charter township 5,062 5,821 759 15.0%

Gaines charter township 20,112 22,813 2,701 13.4%

Byron township 17,553 19,509 1,956 11.1%

Cannon township 12,075 13,083 1,008 8.3%

Cascade township 15,107 16,286 1,179 7.8%

Walker city 21,842 23,315 1,473 6.7%

Georgetown township 41,658 43,703 2,045 4.9%

Grand Rapids charter township 14,056 14,621 565 4.0%

Plainfield township 30,195 31,348 1,153 3.8%

Kentwood city 45,255 46,538 1,283 2.8%

Grandville city 16,263 16,680 417 2.6%

Tallmadge township 6,881 7,009 128 1.9%

Wyoming city 69,368 70,300 932 1.3%

Wright township 3,286 3,282 -4 -0.1%

Alpine township 13,976 13,946 -30 -0.2%

Hudsonville city 7,160 7,091 -69 -1.0%

Grand Rapids city 197,800 195,115 -2,685 -1.4%

East Grand Rapids city 10,764 10,482 -282 -2.6%

This includes the following area:

[snoogit]

Keep dreamin snoogit. As much as urban areas are seeing rebirth, I don't see anything on the horizon that will slow suburban growth anywhere in the country. If anything, it will probably get worse, even with urban growth boundaries.

I seriously believe we are at the crest of suburban growth, or very close to it (close being 10-20 years)

The real estate market for suburban growth is correcting itself, as recent reports saying property values are overvalued in many suburban areas.

We are right at the beginning of a paradigm shift. A move to fewer suburbs and more towards urban living. Just ask anyone in the housing business right now, Theres hardly any work to be had (and its part of the reason I am sitting at home looking for a job, and not working right now ) as more and more houses are filling up the market.

And Phizzy, that growth can be explained by M-6, I will bet you that 10 years from now, Grand Rapids will be at the top of that list, and those communities will be stagnant like Alpine, Tallmadge, and Wright currently are. And Alpine, Tallmadge, and Wright will be vacating.

[GRDadof3]

I seriously believe we are at the crest of suburban growth, or very close to it (close being 10-20 years)

The real estate market for suburban growth is correcting itself, as recent reports saying property values are overvalued in many suburban areas.

We are right at the beginning of a paradigm shift. A move to fewer suburbs and more towards urban living. Just ask anyone in the housing business right now, Theres hardly any work to be had (and its part of the reason I am sitting at home looking for a job, and not working right now ) as more and more houses are filling up the market.

And Phizzy, that growth can be explained by M-6, I will bet you that 10 years from now, Grand Rapids will be at the top of that list, and those communities will be stagnant like Alpine, Tallmadge, and Wright currently are. And Alpine, Tallmadge, and Wright will be vacating.

Sure, you can ask me. The current housing market in the suburbs is temporary, a "breather" if you will. It has nothing to do with people moving back into the city. You might be right that it is correcting itself, but it will trend upward again.

All you have to do is look at cities that are at a period 10 - 20 years ahead of us and see the proof. Sorry, it's wishful thinking. Until urban area education situations improve, it will be more of the same.

Don't get me wrong, the next 10 - 20 years will see quite a rebirth and re-energizing of urban core areas, but it will probably only comprise 5 - 15% of the housing market, at most.

[Phizzy]

And Phizzy, that growth can be explained by M-6, I will bet you that 10 years from now, Grand Rapids will be at the top of that list, and those communities will be stagnant like Alpine, Tallmadge, and Wright currently are. And Alpine, Tallmadge, and Wright will be vacating.

I don't know...Allendale Township is the fastest growing municipality in the Grand Rapids area (and also a suburb of GR, in my opinion) and it isn't anywhere near M-6.

Population

					 2000	2004	  Change

					------  ------  -----  ----- 

Allendale township  13,042  15,790  2,748  21.1%

[snoogit]

I don't know...Allendale Township is the fastest growing municipality in the Grand Rapids area (and also a suburb of GR, in my opinion) and it isn't anywhere near M-6.

Population

					 2000	2004	  Change

					------  ------  -----  ----- 

Allendale township  13,042  15,790  2,748  21.1%

I consider the suburbs like Walker, Wyoming, and Kentwood, not Allendale. Allendale will always have some growth due to GVSU. Right now its getting a little extreme, but again in 10 years things will be different.

[GR8scott]

I consider the suburbs like Walker, Wyoming, and Kentwood, not Allendale. Allendale will always have some growth due to GVSU. Right now its getting a little extreme, but again in 10 years things will be different.

true but wyoming panhandle and eastern kentwood still have a lot of room to grow and are steadly building new housing developments each of those cities could easily add another 10k ppl, and Walker being a mixed up wasteland could add housing anywhere, the only subburbs that can't really grow is EGR and Grandville because they are land locked and don't have much room to build new unless replacing old. GR can't grow that much more unless they develop the areas in NE and NW side more and bring more DT

[MJLO]

I think there's a good chance that if this Orchard Park Developement comes to fruition in Walker, you could see Growth in the 20 or 30 percents for that Suburb. I Think walker, and the northwest Quadrant, have the most room, and reason for growth in the coming Future. Soon enough south county will be built out.

[GRDadof3]

A little bit of bad news from the census estimates from 2006.

In 2006, Grand Rapids - Wyoming MSA did register a small population increase of .5% or about 3913, but here is how it broke down:

- Births 11,233

- Deaths 5742

- International Immigration 2287

- Net Domestic Migration -3980 (more people left then came)

- Net population increase 3913

So births outnumbered deaths 2 to 1, which goes to show that GR is still a good place to have children and raise a family. But almost 4000 more people left then arrived. Why are people continuing to leave?

- Cuts in manufacturing jobs continuing in 2006?

- Climate? (possibly, even Chicago, Cleveland and Mpls had negative net migration of -66000, -19000 and -3100 respectively) The only Great Lake State cities showing any kind of net positive migration are Columbus and Indianapolis. Why? What are they doing right?

- Perceived reduction in quality of life?

- The general perception of the State affecting us?

Anyone want to venture?

Source

[Rizzo]

I think its probably a whole host of reasons, but nothing to really pin down. If we saw a mass exodus then I would be more apt to name a single or great cause. You may have families here previously from other parts of the county moving back to where they originated, finding work elsewhere, family concerns, etc...

[Yankee Fan]

In our neck of the woods, here are a few of the responses and thoughts that we have been hearing over the last two years:

1. Baby boomers are beginning to retire and head south for warmer temperatures. We have had a lot of people indicate that this was their plan.

2. In order to retain their position with a company, there has been a noticable increase in people relocating to different markets.

3. In the manufacturing area, I have spoken with quite a few people who were offered significant step ups in the corporate foodchain to move to other regional areas. We have a lot of expertise in the supply chain and manufacturing arenas and there are companies in places like Indiana and Ohio that are "buying" our talent with promises of better career paths. The talk track has been "Ohio is not that far from West Michigan. We are growing and we need your experience to help us continue that growth. Come here to begin the next stage of your career."

4. People outside of Michigan still see our state as Detroit, USA. Because of that, we see a lot of skeptical responses to the offers to move to West Michigan. The problem is that the picture painted is so heavily influenced by the southeast corner of our state that it is hard to educate people on the difference of our market, which is actually quite robust today.

5. This is not meant as a "zinger" but when people come to visit our area while looking at relocating, every conversation goes well until they take a look at our public schools. I know that we are no different than any other mid market city when it comes to our struggles. And we always point out the diverse schooling choices offered here. But this subject has negatively influenced a lot of people when they see the problems that we have been facing.

[RustTown]

A little bit of bad news from the census estimates from 2006.

In 2006, Grand Rapids - Wyoming MSA did register a small population increase of .5% or about 3913, but here is how it broke down:

- Births 11,233

- Deaths 5742

- International Immigration 2287

- Net Domestic Migration -3980 (more people left then came)

- Net population increase 3913

So births outnumbered deaths 2 to 1, which goes to show that GR is still a good place to have children and raise a family. But almost 4000 more people left then arrived. Why are people continuing to leave?

- Cuts in manufacturing jobs continuing in 2006?

- Climate? (possibly, even Chicago, Cleveland and Mpls had negative net migration of -66000, -19000 and -3100 respectively) The only Great Lake State cities showing any kind of net positive migration are Columbus and Indianapolis. Why? What are they doing right?

- Perceived reduction in quality of life?

- The general perception of the State affecting us?

Anyone want to venture?

Source

[FilmMaker]

A probably temporary and indirectly related tidbit from my neck of the woods in Plainfield Twp: housing starts up here have dropped very significantly. I'm almost proud to say that we've had very little little residential development to ponder at our Planning Commission mtgs.

We've been busy updating our master plan and the most recent census (population growth) projections we had to work with are starting to feel like they should be updated to reflect the reality of the past 6-12 months (as well as the near term future reality).

[GRDadof3]

GRdad,

I looked at your link, and since 2000, the MSA regularly posted percent increases between 0.5 to 1.3. It looks that there has been a very slight slowdown in since 2003, but it's holding relatively steady, and I'm kind of confused how this can be painted as 'bad news', at all. I wouldn't consider adding 33,602 since 2000 bad news, nor would I the very slightest of slowdowns. Now, if the metro had registered a population drop from 2005 to 2006 (like Metro Detroit), then, I'd be worried, but the births/deaths and inward/outward numbers seem to be relatively uniform for the last 2-3 years.

[RustTown]

I guess I really misread the numbers, and/or wasn't paying attention. Thanks for breaking that down.