GSP International

[Exile]

20 hours ago, CLT_sc said:

There really isn’t much between Gastonia and Gaffney. 

From the perspective of CLT (22MM boardings), undoubtedly. From the perspective of GSP (1MM+), maybe more significant. The populations of Cherokee and Cleveland Counties combined is over 150,000 people. If all air travelers from those counties were to opt for GSP (unlikely, I admit; but that's just two possibilities), that would be significant for GSP.

I assure you, a lot of people will drive in order to avoid big-airport hassles as much as possible; and if, as you speculated, longer distance nonstops are going to become more common (or less uncommon) for smaller airports like GSP, that "leakage" will increase. Probably not enough for CLT to take much notice, but potentially significant for li'l ole GSP.

[CLT_sc]

1 hour ago, Exile said:

From the perspective of CLT (22MM boardings), undoubtedly. From the perspective of GSP (1MM+), maybe more significant. The populations of Cherokee and Cleveland Counties combined is over 150,000 people. If all air travelers from those counties were to opt for GSP (unlikely, I admit; but that's just two possibilities), that would be significant for GSP.

I assure you, a lot of people will drive in order to avoid big-airport hassles as much as possible; and if, as you speculated, longer distance nonstops are going to become more common (or less uncommon) for smaller airports like GSP, that "leakage" will increase. Probably not enough for CLT to take much notice, but potentially significant for li'l ole GSP.

I think you will see more passengers at GSP from Cola until airlines realize there is a strong untapped market.  I really don’t hear complaints about CLT being a hassle.  Outside of the endless construction, the daily decks are easy to navigate and provide transportation to the front door.  From there, you just have to see which security line is shortest and go in that way.  The new terminal A (phase 1)is really cool, terminals b,c,d and e are being renovated in stages and, while not wide like Munich, provide a nice atmosphere for waiting on a flight.

The convenience of getting on a plane to your final destination and not having to worry about connecting in a large airport is worth a little time getting into CLT.  And, I absolutely hate CRJs.

Edited June 29, 2019 by CLT_sc

[Exile]

15 minutes ago, CLT_sc said:

I think you will see more passengers at GSP from Cola until airlines realize there is a strong untapped market.  I really don’t hear complaints about CLT being a hassle.  Outside of the endless construction, the daily decks are easy to navigate and provide transportation to the front door.  From there, you just have to see which security line is shortest and go in that way.  The new terminal A (phase 1)is really cool, terminals b,c,d and e are being renovated in stages and, while not wide like Munich, provide a nice atmosphere for waiting on a flight.

The convenience of getting on a plane to your final destination and not having to worry about connecting in a large airport is worth a little time getting into CLT.  And, I absolutely hate CRJs.

You seem to think that your opinion is normative. I live in the CLT area, follow the Douglas Int'l thread on UP, and have flown in and out of all these airports a number of times--I don't need a primer, and I seriously doubt anybody else on this thread needs one either.

I do hear complaints about CLT being a hassle, lots of them, along with expressed hopes that the upgrades will out-punt the traffic. Some of those people will in fact be pleased with the finished product and use CLT till it clogs up again. But there really are other people out there who prefer to avoid CLT if they can, even when the construction projects are finished, and, when feasible, actually follow through on that preference by going to GSP, GSO or RDU.

I don't expect the Concord Airport ever to be much more than an Allegiant + NASCAR facility; but at the same time it would not surprise me if something more than that developed there for us O&D leisure travelers.

One man's "really cool" is another man's poison.

I'm out.

[gman430]

**Air Service Development – Passenger Leakage Statistics Update**

As a follow-up to the request of the Commission, Mr. Scott Carr, Vice President, Commercial Business and Communications, presented a passenger leakage statistics update. The GSP primary catchment area has a population of 2.3 million. GSP is able to pull a significant amount of traffic throughout the GSP primary catchment area.

On the domestic side, in markets without GSP non-stop service, passengers utilize GSP 40% of the time. In markets with GSP non-stop service, passengers utilize GSP 50% of the time. GSP’s domestic leakage is 46% to Charlotte followed by 31% to Atlanta. GSP’s international leakage is 44% to Charlotte followed by 43% to Atlanta.

Mr. Carr reviewed the top 15 GSP domestic markets and compared the passengers daily each way (PDEW) from 2017 to 2018. Mr. Carr also reviewed the domestic markets by carrier. Mr. Carr then reviewed the top 15 unserved domestic markets including Boston, LA Basin, and the Bay Area.

The Commission inquired about the timing of the study to which Mr. Carr responded that the study captured second half of Calendar Year 2018. Mr. Edwards also noted the data lag in the information that comes from DOT.

Mr. Carr provided an overview of the top 15 GSP international markets noting a decrease in leakage in nine of those markets. Mr. Carr reviewed the international markets by carrier. The Commission inquired about data regarding international markets as well as sources of data to which Mr. Carr responded.

Mr. Edwards commented on the leakage map. In the future, Staff would like to provide another update with more of a condensed primary catchment area versus an expanded catchment area. The leakage study conducted in 2009 and 2012 provided more of a condensed catchment area than what was reviewed today. The Commission asked about Asheville capture of the market to which Mr. Edwards responded.

Edited June 29, 2019 by gman430

[distortedlogic]

2 hours ago, gman430 said:

**Air Service Development – Passenger Leakage Statistics Update**

As a follow-up to the request of the Commission, Mr. Scott Carr, Vice President, Commercial Business and Communications, presented a passenger leakage statistics update. The GSP primary catchment area has a population of 2.3 million. GSP is able to pull a significant amount of traffic throughout the GSP primary catchment area.

On the domestic side, in markets without GSP non-stop service, passengers utilize GSP 40% of the time. In markets with GSP non-stop service, passengers utilize GSP 50% of the time. GSP’s domestic leakage is 46% to Charlotte followed by 31% to Atlanta. GSP’s international leakage is 44% to Charlotte followed by 43% to Atlanta.

Mr. Carr reviewed the top 15 GSP domestic markets and compared the passengers daily each way (PDEW) from 2017 to 2018. Mr. Carr also reviewed the domestic markets by carrier. Mr. Carr then reviewed the top 15 unserved domestic markets including Boston, LA Basin, and the Bay Area.

The Commission inquired about the timing of the study to which Mr. Carr responded that the study captured second half of Calendar Year 2018. Mr. Edwards also noted the data lag in the information that comes from DOT.

Mr. Carr provided an overview of the top 15 GSP international markets noting a decrease in leakage in nine of those markets. Mr. Carr reviewed the international markets by carrier. The Commission inquired about data regarding international markets as well as sources of data to which Mr. Carr responded.

Mr. Edwards commented on the leakage map. In the future, Staff would like to provide another update with more of a condensed primary catchment area versus an expanded catchment area. The leakage study conducted in 2009 and 2012 provided more of a condensed catchment area than what was reviewed today. The Commission asked about Asheville capture of the market to which Mr. Edwards responded.

Good info. I wish they would give us more details on Mr. Edwards reponses, instead of just saying "Mr. Edwards responded." 

I'm not sure I follow the leakage numbers, they don't really add up, but is looks like the domestic non-nonstop leakage is 60%  and the nonstop leakage is 50%, based on this quote "On the domestic side, in markets without GSP non-stop service, passengers utilize GSP 40% of the time. In markets with GSP non-stop service, passengers utilize GSP 50% of the time." I guess of those, 46% leaked to CLT and 31% to ATL? Maybe the other 23% leaked to CAE, AVL? 

So that tells me GSP could potentially serve 5MM from the encatchemnt area, though that doesn't include other potential passenges that may be inspired to fly if more options were available or might even travel from outside the encatchemnt area. That's still a ton of leakage and untapped potential at GSP. Hopefully airlines will continue to open up more options! 

Edited June 29, 2019 by distortedlogic

[CLT_sc]

3 hours ago, Exile said:

You seem to think that your opinion is normative. I live in the CLT area, follow the Douglas Int'l thread on UP, and have flown in and out of all these airports a number of times--I don't need a primer, and I seriously doubt anybody else on this thread needs one either.

I do hear complaints about CLT being a hassle, lots of them, along with expressed hopes that the upgrades will out-punt the traffic. Some of those people will in fact be pleased with the finished product and use CLT till it clogs up again. But there really are other people out there who prefer to avoid CLT if they can, even when the construction projects are finished, and, when feasible, actually follow through on that preference by going to GSP, GSO or RDU.

I don't expect the Concord Airport ever to be much more than an Allegiant + NASCAR facility; but at the same time it would not surprise me if something more than that developed there for us O&D leisure travelers.

One man's "really cool" is another man's poison.

I'm out.

Sorry if you take my comments as a “primer”, that is not the intention.  I commented about CLT not being a hassle because that is part of the story.  Getting to the gate at CLT is not a terrible experience, especially considering you will most likely be on a direct flight.  Some on here have suggested that as flights expand at GSP, more will be enticed from Charlotte because it is easier.  Absent a huge discount not available in Charlotte, I don’t see that as likely because of a few reasons.  First, in most cases, you fly direct from Charlotte.  From GSP, you are more likely to be on a small regional jet connecting in a large airport like Charlotte.  So, any gains made because of the “hassle” Of CLT is more than negated by flying on smaller cramped aircraft to connect in an airport at least as large as Charlotte.  And, that doesn’t consider the “hassle” of driving further from CLT  to GSP, RDU etc.  When SWA was in Raleigh prior to CLT, some of the diehards made a trip to Raleigh.  

Glad to see Gman post some actual numbers.  My first question is how is the 2.3mm catchment area defined?  That is half of SC and has to assume the GSP market goes well into Columbia, Asheville or Charlotte.  So, that seems somewhat inflated and makes the leakage look worse than it actually may be.  

Gman, see if you can pull definitions of how this number is constructed.  If GSP is 2.3mm, CLT would have to be in the 12mm range which I don’t expect to see.  ATL would have to be in the 20mm range based on cross math.

[distortedlogic]

53 minutes ago, CLT_sc said:

Some on here have suggested that as flights expand at GSP, more will be enticed from Charlotte because it is easier.  Absent a huge discount not available in Charlotte, I don’t see that as likely because of a few reasons.  For me and many in the upstate, it's not about pulling from CLT or another city to get passengers; its about us being able to use GSP so we don't have to go to CLT or ATL. The more directs and options we have, the more we can use GSP. Sure we use CLT and ATL because of the options, bet we would rather use GSP, just like you would rather use CTL since it's your airport. I'm sure Columbia peeps would rather use CAE and Greensboro folks would rather use PTI.  That's the whole reason we are happy about growth and additional options. I couldn't care less about people from Charlotte or Atlanta coming to use GSP. Why would they?  First, in most cases, you fly direct from Charlotte.  Again, exactly why we want more options.  From GSP, you are more likely to be on a small regional jet connecting in a large airport like Charlotte. Again, exactly why we want more options. Plus, to be fair, GSP doesn't use nearly as many small regional jets as they used to.   So, any gains made because of the “hassle” Of CLT is more than negated by flying on smaller cramped aircraft to connect in an airport at least as large as Charlotte. That's is your opinion, but I think that is incorrect to use as a sweeping statement. Surely you've noticed GSP numbers have grown well over the past decade and that shows more options result in more people flying from there. And, that doesn’t consider the “hassle” of driving further from CLT  to GSP, RDU etc.  When SWA was in Raleigh prior to CLT, some of the diehards made a trip to Raleigh.  Why do so many of your posts in this thread read as though you're trying to convinve people to use CLT instead of GSP?  Again, why do you care what we do in  the upsate? 

Glad to see Gman post some actual numbers.  My first question is how is the 2.3mm catchment area defined?  That is half of SC and has to assume the GSP market goes well into Columbia, Asheville or Charlotte.  Fair question and I wondered the same thing. I don't know how it's defined either. Our media market is like 3.5 to 4 MM , but I don't know what area this covers. Probably all of uspstate (west of Gaffney?), parts of WNC, parts of NEGA, and some fringe areas.  I'm sure there's some overlap between airport encatchment areas.  So, that seems somewhat inflated and makes the leakage look worse than it actually may be.  Yeah, part of that  whole upstate conspiracy to over promote itself, especially Greenville, to look way bigger, better, cooler, more important, etc, etc than it really is. Man, they just don't stop. It must drive you Charlotte people nuts! 

Gman, see if you can pull definitions of how this number is constructed.  If GSP is 2.3mm, CLT would have to be in the 12mm range which I don’t expect to see.  ATL would have to be in the 20mm range based on cross math.

Some thoughts...

Edited June 29, 2019 by distortedlogic

[CLT_sc]

1 hour ago, distortedlogic said:

Some thoughts...

Distorted...some on here have suggested that GSP may get passengers from CLT if more flights are added.  Without a significant difference in price, that is unlikely and really doesn’t make sense.  Honestly, I think a lot in the upstate would rather use CLT to avoid connecting flights, I know a lot of people who drive to Charlotte, especially from Spartanburg and to the east of Spartanburg.  When companies send people to the upstate for business, a lot go to CLT.   

If you read what I wrote instead of trying to get personal, I said the 2.3mm seems inflated AND makes the leakage look worse than it is.  That is not a slam on GSP, but a fair assessment of overstating the market is making your leakage look worse.  2.3mm seems way high for a metro of around 900k.  To me, if feels like a sales number they showed to an airline in trying to convince them to bring service to GSP.  But, if that is why they are claiming, the leakage percents will get worse.  

as for media size,...3.5 - 4???? Most media metrics have it at 2mm,  you realize 4m is over a million larger than Charlotte??? The numbers don’t make sense. 

As for trying to convince people to use CLT, I do love seeing our airport grow. But, I really don’t care if y’all drive up to use it. 

If you add up the total media market population for the 20+ counties, it is roughly 2.2mm people.  So, it sounds like that may be what the airport feels is their market.  However, I am sure Asheville's Airport would disagree.  And, that is meaningful because it makes the leakage to other airports better unless, most of the leakage is coming from Greenville or Spartanburg counties.  To get a good picture, a lot more data is needed. 

Edited June 29, 2019 by CLT_sc

[motonenterprises]

Something is not right about a particular poster here. I have them on ignore, but sometimes still see their stuff because people are quoting him. They love Charlotte but never put anything in the Charlotte forum. Only goal is to try to downplay upstate SC. Particularly Greenville which is doing well. Is this forum no longer moderated?

Edited June 29, 2019 by motonenterprises

[gman430]

58 minutes ago, motonenterprises said:

Something is not right about a particular poster here. I have them on ignore, but sometimes still see their stuff because people are quoting him. They love Charlotte but never put anything in the Charlotte forum. Only goal is to try to downplay upstate SC. Particularly Greenville which is doing well. Is this forum no longer moderated?

I believe this forum member lives in Columbia not Charlotte if I recall correctly. I might be wrong though.

Edited June 29, 2019 by gman430

[distortedlogic]

3 hours ago, motonenterprises said:

Something is not right about a particular poster here. I have them on ignore, but sometimes still see their stuff because people are quoting him. They love Charlotte but never put anything in the Charlotte forum. Only goal is to try to downplay upstate SC. Particularly Greenville which is doing well. Is this forum no longer moderated?

It certainly reduces the enjoyment of reading through the threads. I certainly don't mind someone discussing other nearby areas that affect the  upstate from time to time but the poster obviously has an agenda. He can be very complimentary of other areas, Cola and Charleston for example, but for some reason seems incapable of seeing any positives of the upstate. That's his perogative of course, but why waste his time posting in the forum of a hated place. He still doesn't get that we know we're not Charlotte and are just fine with that. It's a shame really; seems like a pretty smart guy. He could be a solid and constructive poster if he could leave the agenda at the door but whatever. 

[cabelagent]

3 hours ago, motonenterprises said:

Something is not right about a particular poster here. I have them on ignore, but sometimes still see their stuff because people are quoting him. They love Charlotte but never put anything in the Charlotte forum. Only goal is to try to downplay upstate SC. Particularly Greenville which is doing well. Is this forum no longer moderated?

Unfortunately for this forum, he lurks and spews arrogant posts touting Charlotte stuff when he sees an opportunity. He's annoying and gears himself to be the great intellectual/authority and does not like to be challenged...hope the mods do something.  I have friends/relatives living in Charlotte area...they've moved out of Mecklenburg Co. as they grew tired of supporting 'tax happy' liberals that control the city (which has taken over most of the county). I believe he resides in York...not much in common with Greenville area.

[distortedlogic]

Surprisingly May numbers are out, it's rare they post them prior to the end of the following month.

Another month of strong growth; +16.7%, to 229,849 from 196,894 in May of 2018.

Biggest month ever was last Oct, with 230,889. Look for that total  to be surpassed several times over the next 6-7 months. 

Edited July 1, 2019 by distortedlogic

[gvillenative]

I realize they are mostly one off’s, but I think it is interesting to see the cargo flights that are going places other than Germany. Not sure if the Mexico flights are still a thing, but last week I saw a cargo flight to Calgary. Today there is a flight overhead me in Savannah right now that is going from GSP to Lima, Peru. Also, looks like the CRJ Maintenance is still a thing too. Saw a flight from GSP to Montreal. Unless that was a flight just ferrying the aircraft up there for another route.

[gman430]

Why do these dang Navy and Air Force planes keep doing touch and go’s at GSP? Don’t they know they are taking up valuable air and runway space that airlines like JetBlue could be using? Why can’t they just use Donaldson?

Edited July 26, 2019 by gman430

[motonenterprises]

2 hours ago, gman430 said:

Why do these dang Navy and Air Force planes keep doing touch and go’s at GSP? Don’t they know they are taking up valuable air and runway space that airlines like JetBlue could be using? Why can’t they just use Donaldson?

I was wondering that the other day when I was out there.

[btoy]

They have done them out their for years.

[distortedlogic]

June numbers released; up 14.9%,  roughly 30k to 234,743. June surpassed last October to become the busiest month ever at GSP. 

Through June, traffic is up about 15.5% , or plus 163k to roughly 1,227,000; still have our busiest months ahead. Should be close to 2.7 MM this year. 

Edited August 2, 2019 by distortedlogic

[gman430]

Does this mean we’re getting JetBlue?  

[gman430]

Looks like Frontier is dropping Denver from four flights a week to three after August 10th but I believe this is just a seasonal change. 

Edited August 3, 2019 by gman430

[Westend11]

Will be interesting to see if any changes are made at security. Lines are growing for early morning flights lately.

also - GIVE US THE BOSTON FLIGHT 

[distortedlogic]

On 8/2/2019 at 1:56 AM, gman430 said:

Does this mean we’re getting JetBlue?  

Doubt it. I sill think Moxy will be coming here once it is up and running, and that may provide us many more options than just Jetblue to Boston and NYC. It will focus on underserved seondary markets and use a point to point model to new unserved destinations. 

On 8/2/2019 at 4:03 AM, gman430 said:

Looks like Frontier is dropping Denver from four flights a week to three after August 10th but I believe this is just a seasonal change. 

Don't think you can go by that, for a long time it showed 4 weekly flights to other cities but that was not the case. I think you can tell for sure when you try to book a flight. Notusre why their schedule seems to be off soemtimes but it does. 

5 hours ago, Westend11 said:

 

also - GIVE US THE BOSTON FLIGHT 

Yeah, hard to believe no airline has bitten on this one, seems a no brainer. 

[gman430]

It won’t let me book Saturday’s after August 10th. Tried both the site and app. Monday’s, Wednesday’s, and Friday’s still work. 

Edited August 3, 2019 by gman430

[distortedlogic]

47 minutes ago, gman430 said:

It won’t let me book Saturday’s after August 10th. Tried both the site and app. Monday’s, Wednesday’s, and Friday’s still work. 

Oh, don't know, maybe that sat flight is seasonal? 

[GVLover]

June numbers:

“During the month, GSP served 234,743 total passengers, an increase of 14.9% compared to the same month last year, the release said. For the first six months of 2019, GSP served more than 1.2 million total passengers, an increase of 15.5%.”

 

https://gsabusiness.com/news/aerospace/76933/